彭博观察：科技债发行推升美债收益率，AI投资或加剧通胀

Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen.

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We begin this hour with stocks kind of looking for direction as the flood of big tech debt keeps upward pressure on Treasury yields. Marvin Low of State Street writing, "While recent data has thrown a bit of cold water on the strength of the economy, the strong demand for capital has created strong need for tighter financial conditions." Marvin joins us now for more. Marvin, great to see you. Thank you so much for being with us.

Can you explain that why all of the tech issuance is actually a requirement for tighter financial tighter monetary conditions in and of itself?

Yeah, absolutely. I mean um Harry mentioned kind of the supply and demand aspect of it and you know there is a supply issue um that is arising ultimately with um all of this AI buildout. And ultimately uh you know we look at inflation through the oil lens and that and that makes uh clear sense but also we have to look at inflation through the chip lens which is um uh the demand for chips and the supply for chips is being affected by this uh this capital raise and all of this uh data center buildout.

So it is it is ultimately um interrelated. Ultimately growth um outperformance this year has very much been predicated on the fact that we've got all of this investment within the the GDP um stack if you will. Um and there is no letup in in that demand at this point. So you're saying that regardless of what happens with the underlying economy, our core inflation away from some of these key components that monetary policy makers should be looking at the rapid record pace of issuance in the debt markets and frankly increasing activity in the equity markets as a sign that they are not restrictive enough that this inflationary impact from AI has legs and is going to last for a longer period of time.

Yeah, absolutely. I mean I wouldn't say that we can ignore the data. Um but I think that we have to take the data within the context of you know everything that we're saying in terms of the capital demand in this environment. Um you know there there's economic theories which say that you know interest rates are supposed to be set where the amount of capital is equal to the um availability of savings and from that perspective the demand for capital uh certainly are at levels that we haven't seen in quite some time.

Obviously, when it comes to the data, it's backwards looking. And for someone like Beth Hammock, and if you listen to her speak, it doesn't really matter what tomorrow's CPI print brings in terms of where she sees the trajectory and what needs to be done to really try to tamper inflation. How are you are you viewing tomorrow's CPI print?

Yeah, I mean, you know, we're still going to be um above targets for the 63rd 64th month, if you will. Um there are questions as to whether or not the disinflation is going to uh get us to that 2%. And in an environment where you've got again kind of this um uh economic tailwind from um this investment um uh balloon that we have, you know, you you've got to look at it uh holistically and um you know, and parse the fact that we're still above those targets and uh the shape of the curve and how long yields are responding are saying that there are concerns that you're not taking it seriously enough

given all of this money flooding into AI, given the fact that it is costing a lot more in terms of having compute. Do you think it's going to be much harder for Fed Chair Kevin Worsh to have that argument that ultimately AI is disinflationary?

Um certainly in the short term um you know uh Jackson Hole is coming up. He's going to talk about the big items that he that you know he um referenced during the the last FOMC meeting. Uh you know we'll get a sense on kind of when that productivity can actually make its way into policy. But in the short term, it is going to be really really difficult to calibrate um the potential for productivity gains 5 years down the line within the environment that we have right now.

What would raising rates actually do on the front end of the yield curve, Marvin? I mean, ultimately we've seen that even with rates materially higher priced in by the market with the market doing the work as Kevin Worsh was saying, it hasn't really had a material effect on where equities are. No, it hasn't. Which which ultimately um is a tailwind for kind of this equity story. This isn't this isn't um like prior investment cycles around technology where um you know certainly the technology itself has to be proven but it's being um embarked upon by companies that are incredibly cash flow positive and and that is somewhat sustainable.

I think um ironically um showing that you've got this forward inflation fighting mentality is going to help the the long end. It's really the fact that the long end whether it's driven by term premiums, whether it's driven by real yields are being unhinged by concerns that you're not taking it seriously enough. I'd look at that for um the biggest win uh in raising rates kind of at the short end, if you will. When do you see long ends reach the long end of the yield curve reaching a point where it does constrain some of the enthusiasm that we're seeing in equities and frankly the ambitious capital expenditures that we're seeing from AI and frankly even other companies as well.

Yeah. So, you know, 5% on the 10 year is always kind of that magic number that we're looking at. if it's driven by real yields. Um, you know, certainly getting real yields into this 125 150 basis point range. You know, we're we're closer to that, you know, 80 if you will, uh, perspective from a term premium um, uh, viewpoint. That really starts to, I think, um, tamper the enthusiasm of how much you can throw at these long duration models.

Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. Iran is broke. Totally broke. They asked for uh reparations, you might say, or they asked for uh money for the damage that we've done. And I said, "That's a good idea. Well, we're going to ask for money for the damage they've done over a 50-year period. If there's damages to be paid, I think Iran should pay those damages." Here's the latest. Oil gaining as President Donald Trump makes new demands for Iran, saying reparations for past attacks will be part of any future negotiations with Tyrron.

General Karen Gibson of Academy Securities writing, "Iran is substantially weaker today than before the war began. However, it has gained considerable kor of leverage. Iran benefits when the dispute is framed as an issue between Iran and the US." General Gibson joins us now for more. Uh General Gibson, I want to get your take just of the lay of the lead. if you could zoom out and give us a sense of what has actually changed over the past couple of weeks as people reassessed whether talks were on versus now where it seems like increasingly they're pretty far away.

Yes. So that's a great question Lisa. I think you know one the talks are proceeding on two axes simultaneously. One is between Oman and Iran and that's the mechanism by which the straight would be administered the potential for either voluntary payments or some form of toll to assist with administration. And then the second TAC is the more important one frankly the one between the US and Iran which is not about how it will be administered but when it will open with Iran insisting that the strait will not actually open until the United States makes some major concessions.