市场在财报与AI支出间摇摆，英特尔时隔55年再发新股

LEVERING IN AND GOING FULL BORE ON THE BUBBLE IS OFTEN THE MOVE.

WE HAVE THESE EXTREME MOVES IN FUNDAMENTALS, EXTREME MOVES IN STOCKS.

THERE IS DEFINITELY A QUESTION ON SUSTAINABILITY.

WE THINK THE MARKET ENDS HIGHER ON THE END OF THE YEAR.

THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE" WITH JONATHAN FERRO, LISA ABRAMOWICZ, AND ANNMARIE HORDERN. LISA: WELCOME TO "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE." IT FINALLY FEELS MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST IN MARKETS WITH TRADING VOLUMES FALLING AND STOCKS STRUGGLING FOR DIRECTIONS. INVESTORS HAMSTRUNG BETWEEN BLOWOUT EARNINGS AND AMBITIOUS AI SPENDING PLANS WITH INTEL SELLING NEW SHARES FOR THE FIRST TIME BACK TO 1971. BONDS PRICING BACK IN THAT INFLATION AND FED RATE HIKES WITH OIL PRICES CLIMBING FOR A FOURTH STRAIGHT DAYS.

ANNMARIE: YOU HAVE INFLATIONARY CONCERNS ON THE SUPPLY SIDE AND THE DEMAND SIDE. ON THE SUPPLY SIDE OIL MOVING HIGHER BECAUSE THERE IS NO DEAL INSIGHT, NOT JUST A PEACE AGREEMENT BUT TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. NOW WE ARE BACK TO A HOTTER RHETORIC FROM THIS WHITE HOUSE AND TEHRAN AND WE NOT SEEING ANY END IN SIGHT. AS YOU SAID WE HAVE BLOWOUT EARNINGS AND AI COMPANY AFTER AI COMPANY IS STILL TAPPING THE MARKET AND SAYING WE ARE GOING TO NEED MORE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES.

WE ARE GOING TO NEED MORE FINANCING WHEN IT COMES TO THIS ENTIRE TRADE. LISA: FEELS LIKE MARKETS ARE HAMSTRUNG BETWEEN OIL PRICES, THE INFLATIONARY PRESSURE, AND ON THE OTHER IS WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT. ALL THIS ISSUANCE. THE $500 BILLION FINANCING PLAN WITH LITTLE DETAILS. IT IS A FINANCING PLAN BUT IT MIGHT BE THE BIGGEST EVER PRIVATELY FINANCED PLAN TO EMERGE IN ONE SINGLE TYPE OF ARRANGEMENT. ANNMARIE: THESE EXECUTIVES INDICATING THEY ARE READY TO DO THIS WHEN IT COMES TO DEBT FINANCING.

THIS IS A HUGE AMOUNT OF MONEY AND ONCE AGAIN FEARS OF CIRCULARITY WHEN IT COMES TO THIS SPACE. AND THEN INTEL. WE HAD THIS NEWS YESTERDAY DURING THE PROGRAM WHEN IT CAME TO INTEL THAT BY THE END OF THE DAY YOU SEE HOW MUCH BIGGER THAT OFFERING WAS. THERE IS SO MUCH DEMAND RIGHT NOW TO GET IN ON ALL OF THESE PLAYS. LISA: TRYING TO PRESERVE CREDIT RATINGS ARE TAKING THEIR CUES FROM THE STOCK MARKET INSTEAD. BETH HAMMACK WITH THE CLEVELAND FED SETTING THE TONE AHEAD OF THE CPI PRINT TOMORROW TALKING HOW SHE DOES NOT THINK THAT ONE RATE HIKE IS GOING TO BE SUFFICIENT TO TIGHTEN MONETARY CONDITIONS.

SHE SEES SEVERAL. SHE SAYS IT WILL NOT BE APPROPRIATE TO SAY HOW MANY, BUT HIGHLIGHTING WHAT MARKETS ARE TAKING BACK IN. EVEN THE WEEK REPORT WE GOT FROM THE LABOR MARKET IS NOT ENOUGH TO ASSUAGE CONCERNS THESE INFLATIONARY SHOCKS ARE COMING TOO FAST AND TOO FAST AND TOO FURIOUS TO BE IGNORED. ANNMARIE: SHE EXPLAINED IT LIKE YOU ARE DRIVING A CAR ANY OF PASSENGERS IN THE BACK OF THE SEAT. YOU WANT TO SPEED UP AND SLAM ON THE BRAKES AS SHE VIEWS INFLATION AND THE TRAJECTORY OF WHERE INFLATION IS GOING OR DO YOU WANT TO SLOWLY GUIDE YOURSELF TOWARDS THAT STOP SIGN?

THAT IS WHY SHE SAYS I THINK NOW IS THE TIME TO ACT? LISA: RIGHT NOW YOU SEE A SENSE OF AMBIVALENCE ABOUT WHICH DIRECTION TO GO IN AFTER YESTERDAY, CLOSING STILL HALF A PERCENT AWAY FROM ALL-TIME HIGHS IN THE S&P 500. THIS MORNING COMPLETELY FLAT. PEOPLE BEING WHIPSAWED IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THE NASDAQ 2.5 PERCENT BELOW ALL-TIME HIGHS REACHED EARLIER THIS YEAR. RUSSELL 2000 HAVING A HARDER TIME OF IT AS PEOPLE PRICE BACK IN SOME OF THOSE RATE HIKES.

IT DOES COME BACK TO THE BOND MARKET AHEAD OF THE THREE YEAR NOTE SALE AT 1:00 TODAY. YOU ARE SEEING THE ONGOING CREEP HIGHER IN BENCHMARK YIELDS LED YESTERDAY BY THE FRONT END AND TODAY BY THE BACK END SEEING 4.25%, 3% ON THE 10 YEAR AND THE 30 YEAR YIELD SO CLOSE TO THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2007, BOTH BECAUSE OF OIL PRICES AND ALL OF THE DEBT SALES COMING FROM ALL OF THESE COMPANIES, NOT JUST BIG TECH. THE FASTEST PACE OF INVESTMENT GRADE ISSUANCE GOING BACK TO JANUARY.

WHEN IT COMES TO OIL VERY MUCH SETTING THE TONE. THIS IS SOMETHING WE HAVE TALKING ABOUT. THE IDEA THAT ONGOING CONFLICT SEEMED TO BE UNCONSTRAINED WITH THE QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT THE FED RESPONSE MECHANISM WILL BE. TALKING ABOUT CHARGING IRAN POTENTIALLY FEES FOR THE DAMAGE THEY'VE INCURRED. BRENT CRUDE $89.73. COMING UP THIS HOUR, MARVIN LOWE OF STATE STREET AS NVIDIA TAPS WALL STREET. I HG HOTELS CEO AS THE COMPANY'S FIRST HAVE REVENUE GETS AN ASSIST FROM THE WORLD CUP AND KELSEY BARROW OF J.P.

MORGAN ON THE HIGH HURDLE FOR PRICING OUT RATE HIKES. STOCKS LOOKING FOR DIRECTION AS THE FLOOD OF BIG TECH MARVIN LOH OF STATE STREET WRITING THAT WHILE RECENT DATA HAS THROWN A BIT OF COLD WATER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE ECONOMY OF THE ECONOMY THE STRONG DEMAND FOR CAPITAL HAS CREATED A STRONG NEED FOR TIGHTER FINANCIAL CONDITIONS. GREAT TO SEE YOU. THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US. CAN YOU EXPLAIN WHY ALL OF THE TECH ISSUANCE IS A REQUIREMENT FOR TIGHTER MONETARY CONDITIONS IN AND OF ITSELF?

MARVIN: ABSOLUTELY. YOU MENTIONED THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND ASPECT. THERE IS A SUPPLY ISSUE THAT IS ARISING WITH ALL OF THIS AI BUILDOUT. ULTIMATELY WE LOOK AT INFLATION THROUGH THE OIL LENS THAT MAKES CLEAR SENSE BUT WE HAVE TO LOOK AT INFLATION THROUGH THE CHIP LENS WHICH IS THE DEMAND FOR CHIPS AND SUPPLY FOR CHIPS IS BEING AFFECTED BY THIS CAPITAL RAISE AND THIS DATA CENTER BUILDOUT. IT IS ULTIMATELY INTERRELATED. ULTIMATELY GROWTH OUTPERFORMANCE THIS YEAR HAS BEEN PREDICATED ON THE FACT WE HAVE ALL OF THIS INVESTMENT WITHIN THE GDP STACK AND THERE IS NO LET UP IN THAT DEMAND AT THIS POINT.

LISA: YOU ARE SAYING REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE UNDERLYING ECONOMY OR CORE INFLATION, MONETARY POLICY MAKERS SHOULD BE LOOKING AT THE RAPID RECORD PACE OF ISSUANCE AND THE DEBT MARKETS AND FRANKLY INCREASING ACTIVITY IN THE EQUITY MARKETS AS A SIGN THEY ARE NOT RESTRICTIVE ENOUGH, THAT THIS INFLATIONARY IMPACT FROM AI HAS LEGS AND IS GOING TO LAST FOR A LONGER TIME. MARVIN: ABSOLUTELY. I WOULD NOT SAY WE CAN IGNORE THE DATA BUT WE HAVE TO TAKE THE DATA WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF EVERYTHING WE ARE SEEING IN TERMS OF THE CAPITAL DEMAND IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

THERE ARE ECONOMIC THEORIES WHICH SAY INTEREST RATES ARE SUPPOSED TO BE SET WHERE THE AMOUNT OF CAPITAL IS EQUAL TO THE AVAILABILITY OF SAVINGS AND FROM THAT PERSPECTIVE THE DEMAND FOR CAPITAL CERTAINLY ARE AT LEVELS WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. ANNMARIE: WHEN IT COMES TO THE DATA IT IS BACKWARDS LOOKING. SOMEONE LIKE BETH HAMMACK, IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT TOMORROW CPI PRINT BRINGS IN TERMS OF WHERE SHE SEES THE TRAJECTORY AND WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE TO TRY TO TAMPER INFLATION.

HOW ARE YOU VIEWING TOMORROW CPI PRINT? MARVIN: WE ARE STILL GOING TO BE ABOVE TARGET FOR THE 63RD MONTH. THERE ARE QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER THE DISINFLATION IS GOING TO GET US TO THAT 2% AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE YOU HAVE THIS ECONOMIC TAIL WIND FROM THIS INVESTMENT BALLOON WE HAVE, YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT IT HOLISTICALLY AND PARSE THE FACT THAT WE ARE STILL ABOVE THOSE TARGETS AND THE SHAPE OF THE CURVE AND HOW LONG YIELDS ARE RESPONDING ARE SAYING THERE ARE CONCERNS YOU ARE NOT TAKING IT SERIOUSLY ENOUGH.

ANNMARIE: GIVEN ALL THIS MONEY FLOODING INTO AI AND THE FACT IT IS COSTING MORE IN TERMS OF HAVING COMPUTE, DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE MUCH HARDER FOR FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH TO HAVE THAT ARGUMENT THAT ULTIMATELY AI IS DISINFLATIONARY? MARVIN: CERTAINLY IN THE SHORT TERM. JACKSON HOLE IS COMING UP, YOU CAN TALK ABOUT THE BIG ITEMS HE REFERENCED DURING THE LAST FOMC MEETING. WE WILL GET A SENSE OF WHEN THAT PRODUCTIVITY CONNECTION MAKES ITS WAY INTO POLICY.

IN THE SHORT TERM IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CALIBRATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCTIVITY GAINS FIVE YEARS DOWN THE LINE WITH THE ENVIRONMENT WE HAVE RIGHT NOW. LISA: WHAT WOULD RAISING RATES DO ON THE FRONT OF THE YIELD CURVE. EVEN WITH RATES HIGHER PRICED AND BY THE MARKET WITH A MARKET DOING THE WORK AS KEVIN WARSH WAS SAYING IT HAS NOT HAD A MATERIAL EFFECT OF WHERE EQUITIES ARE. MARVIN: IT HAS NOT, WHICH IS A TAILWIND FOR THIS EQUITY STORY.

THIS IS NOT LIKE PRIOR INVESTMENT CYCLES AROUND TECHNOLOGY WHERE CERTAINLY THE TECHNOLOG

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