特朗普对伊朗选项有限，霍尔木兹海峡僵局持续

What do we do with this rhetoric? Semi negotiating. We are locking it only to later in the day demand concessions for Americans who have been killed. Uh, where are we in this process? Joe, we've been stuck. We've been stuck here for the last couple of weeks. The president does not have good options. So right now, I think the message is I'm not messaging to the Iranians that they have the leverage. Now, I am not going to make a decision yet.

I'm going to hope that something pressures Iran to take a different step. But this was really downplaying. And you heard that with secretary sent as well, saying, you know, the Strait of Hormuz is really not that important. They'll have other ways to get energy out of the region. So I know decision is a decision and a strategy. And we're just we're in a holding pattern right now until something gives. Well, do you think reparations paid by either side is ultimately going to be something that gives?

Iran is saying that that will be tied to the reopening of the Strait. And President Trump, as Joe alluded to, is now saying, well, you owe us compensation as well. Yeah, this is where, again, the whole reparations never made it into the original memorandum of understanding. It was always something that the Iranians were pressing. And today, the president I mean, he was adding, you know, possible reparations after the USS Cole bombing, which was al-Qaida, not Iran.

Um, so, again, I just think this is a little, little tit for tat, um, rhetorically. But the fact of the matter is, nothing has shifted on the ground. Uh, we don't have much getting through the Strait of Hormuz. Some vessels. Um, we had over the weekend, uh, hoodie attacks on the Red sea, which closes one of those essential, uh, paths out. So we're just we're just stuck right now. So think of where we were one week ago today when the president was climbing down from his most recent threats to obliterate the country of the country after Iran's neighbors asked us to, according to the president, uh, he said it would be 1 or 2 days quick.

He said, before there was a deal struck. In fact, on Monday, he said it could be that day. A week has now passed. Now we're low keying it. And there have been repeated stories about our munitions levels and questions about whether it's impacting our strategic decisions. The latest in the Washington Post today with a Defense Department memo that shows the Deputy Defense Secretary, Steve Feinberg, writing to industry leaders, the defense contractors, that they had no more than 21 days to submit plans to significantly speed developments and procurement.

What does that tell us about our military posture? Again, it tells us the president does not have many options. And the fact that General Kaine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, evidently, I mean, they have been reporting on this. As you know, the more we do this, we can keep striking, but we're really running out of targets and we're running out of ammunition, munitions to do that. It limits the president's, um, uh, choices now.

Uh, Joanne Kelly, I think it's also important to say we are picking up some chatter from last week. Uh, certainly U.S. forces really, uh, they flowed into theater. More refueling tankers. They're positioned in Israel. Um, you know, we could see. I mean, this is where the low key. And then something else happens. I think we just have to monitor this situation just to see, um, the Israelis are sending messages as well that.

Look, if they have to, they will take care of action as well. We also in Iran today had an announcement by, um, uh, Ayatollah Khomeini that, you know, the hard liners are getting there. I like to say the hard liners are heartening. Um, these are truly the hardest lines of the IRGC. So they're toughening up, waiting for a long game here. Well, if they're only hardening, are they likely to counter economic pressure anytime soon?

Because if the president says he's going to lean more on the economic levers, like the blockade, like sanctions that have been in place for months, if not decades, and they haven't been effective to this point. So we're hearing two messages. Uh, you did have the Iranian president sort of signal acknowledgement that there is real pain happening in the economy. So the president is right to touch on that. But the hard liners.

They do not care. And it was so important that, uh, some very senior announcements today, these are folks that go back to the 1980, 1988 Iran-Iraq War. Real deprivation. They are already there. Long haul. Uh, they believe this is their strategic moment to use their leverage. The Strait of Hormuz is their leverage, and they want to see real concessions from the United States. So they are in it. But the economy is struggling for sure.

While we're at it, Benjamin Netanyahu throws back on the 15 point plan that was supposed to bring a cease fire, if not peace. Israel. Lebanon, Hezbollah. In fact, he said, unlike all those who lecture us, we do what needs to be done for Israel's security. Are they on their own now? And can you have a deal with Iran as long as Israel is in the fight with Hezbollah? So what's been so interesting about Iranian rhetoric?

They've been solely focusing on the straight. Remember when they were arguing, you know, cease fire in Lebanon, Gaza? Some of that has, uh, certainly not, uh, you know, been raised again, but this is about Israeli security policy in the region. And this is the real shift that I think many analysts were really slow to realize post October 7th, 2023, um, that the Israelis now they will carve out a buffer zone. And if anything, over the last several weeks, uh, the military strikes, they have pushed the so-called yellow line, which is where the Israelis hold territory.

They've been continuing to push into Palestinian controlled territory. And again, a very important election, October the 27th, where the prime minister, uh, is it's not looking great in the polls. And this you know, I will be the security minister. I will be, uh, the answer here. I just don't see that they would ever reduce their their presence in Gaza, um, before the October election. So was President Trump just getting ahead of himself in announcing this deal, or did something changed over the course of the last?

Yeah. I mean, I think, look, the Board of Peace, uh, they are trying they are trying to get, uh, this agreement through. Remember, the U.N. Security Council has blessed this. They're just running into these these, uh, roadblocks. But as I said, I always think the Israelis would have been the the impediment. Ultimately, I think the prime Minister Netanyahu is really, uh, being very public about this, pushing back. He sees there's greater value in the electoral positioning.

And perhaps he already feels his relationship with President Trump is already a little bumpy. He's just willing to accept the bumpy ness of the bilateral relationship to, you know, really look forward to his election.