美债2026年末承压：AI资本开支与财政赤字双重压力
Treasuries Will Have a Tough End to 2026: 3-Minutes MLIV
I read your notes this morning, Mark. I CapEx burning through investor cash. But there's a lot of cash. So how much further does this go? Look, my answer going can be a little bit boring here guy. It's going to be the same as I said for probably the last sort of year, maybe nine months I don't know. Next earnings seasons are always what I'm looking at and it's going to constantly be the next rolling earnings season. It's not because I think it blows up specifically in the next earnings season.
马克，我今天早上读了你的笔记。我资本支出正在烧掉投资者的现金。但现金很多。那么这还能走多远？听着，我的回答可能会有点无聊，伙计。这会和我在过去大概一年，也许九个月里说的差不多，我不知道。接下来的财报季一直是我关注的，而且它会不断是下一个滚动财报季。这不是因为我认为它会在下一个财报季具体爆发。
It's because I think the I CapEx bubble bursts when one of the hyperscalers changes tack on their capital expenditure plans, and I think that can happen outside kind of results season, but I think it's unlikely to, uh, so I think it's most likely we get to earnings, or at least we get a hint in those earnings seasons that, hey, it's not really working or the revenue's not coming through, uh, fast enough to kind of keep up with the kind of hope, the pipe dream that we might see the revenue explosion or justify the CapEx explosion that we're already pricing in.
而是因为我认为当某个超大规模企业改变其资本支出计划时，我资本支出泡沫就会破裂，我认为这可能发生在财报季之外，但我认为这不太可能，所以我认为最有可能的是我们进入财报季，或者至少在那些财报季中得到一个暗示，嘿，这并没有真正起作用，或者收入没有足够快地到来，以跟上那种希望，那种我们可能看到收入爆炸或证明我们已经定价的资本支出爆炸是合理的白日梦。
So I kind of always think it's the next earnings season. Do I think my base case is the next earnings season? Not necessarily. But I think you've got to be alert to it. We're already quite far through inflating this. I bubble it kind of. Plenty more to go. This most recent earnings season shows that it's still going strong for now. And you've talked about as well, Mark, in your notes about the fact that this could this additional spending could be marginally negative for for treasuries.
所以我总是认为下一个财报季。我认为我的基本情形是下一个财报季吗？不一定。但我认为你必须对此保持警惕。我们已经相当深入地膨胀了这个泡沫。还有很多要走。最近的财报季显示它目前仍然强劲。马克，你在笔记中也谈到了这样一个事实，即这种额外支出可能对国债产生轻微负面影响。
Watching treasuries in the lead up to CPI inflation out of the US tomorrow is is that inflation print backdated to July. Is it less important now given what we're seeing in terms of higher gas and diesel and oil prices. Maybe. But uh, you know, I think week we keep on dismissing each kind of marginal data print that comes through because we're setting the situation so dynamic. I think, though it is interesting. Here's the context of treasuries.
在明天美国CPI通胀数据公布之前关注国债，那个通胀数据是回溯到7月的。考虑到我们看到汽油、柴油和油价上涨，它现在是否不那么重要了？也许吧。但是，你知道，我认为我们一直在忽视每一个边际数据发布，因为情况如此动态。不过，我认为这很有趣。这是国债的背景。
I think the pressure on treasuries is going to be a real theme going into year and into midterms. We have fiscal incontinence in the US, which is unlikely to change before the elections. We don't have great policy credibility, uh, from various parts of the US. ALM whether it's the fed or the, the, the Treasury at the moment. And I think we've got, uh, you know, clearly an inflationary backdrop we can negotiate or debate about exactly to what extent.
我认为进入今年年底和中期选举，国债面临的压力将是一个真正的主题。美国存在财政失控，这在选举前不太可能改变。我们目前从美国资产和负债管理的各个部分，无论是美联储还是财政部，都没有很好的政策可信度。而且我认为，显然我们有一个通胀背景，我们可以就确切程度进行谈判或辩论。
But I think the backdrop for treasuries is very negative. And I think that pressure is going to increase in the year end. The expansion hyperscale debt doesn't help that. And it's with that context that we've got us CPI print this week. I mean, it's an interesting one. We've had a mixed reaction yesterday and assets in terms of oil prices up. But gold is also up. And there's all this optimism around Europe. Still. Does that need to be put into the context of the risk of higher oil prices and the fact that we started the year with the 1.2% real GDP forecast for 2026.
但我认为国债的背景非常不利。而且我认为这种压力在年底会加剧。超大规模债务的扩张对此并无帮助。正是在这种背景下，我们本周迎来了CPI数据。我的意思是，这很有趣。昨天市场反应不一，资产方面油价上涨。但黄金也在上涨。而且围绕欧洲仍有种种乐观情绪。这是否需要放在油价上涨风险以及我们年初对2026年实际GDP增长1.2%的预测这一背景下来考量呢？
Uh, I think that people are starting to cope with the higher volatility in oil prices and with higher elevated oil prices. Of course, if we see Brent crude spike well above $100, again, that will derail some of the kind of the bullishness around Europe at the moment. But I think with volatile at a at this range of 80 to $100, I think European stocks will cope. And the European theater story will sustain.
呃，我认为人们开始适应油价的高波动性和高企的油价。当然，如果我们看到布伦特原油再次飙升至远高于100美元，那将破坏当前围绕欧洲的一些看涨情绪。但我认为，在80至100美元这个区间内波动，欧洲股市能够应对。而且欧洲的戏剧性故事将持续下去。
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