Hayes：贝森特计划操纵美元日元汇率并重启印钞机
My essay "Yen-quake" walks readers through how Buffalo Bill Bessent plans to man…
My essay "Yen-quake" walks readers through how Buffalo Bill Bessent plans to manipulate the dollar-yen exchange rate and turn the money printer back on.
我的文章《日元地震》带领读者了解Buffalo Bill Bessent如何计划操纵美元兑日元汇率，并重新开启印钞机。
"While a weak, weaker, and weakest yen propelled global asset markets higher over the past decade, like all good things for wealthy financial asset holders, it must end. The yen is the most undervalued currency globally, and it is a bone of contention for both major powers, the US and China, and critically, the ordinary Japanese voters. There are three ways to cut the yen Gordian knot, but the US Treasury and Japanese politicians prefer only one.
"虽然过去十年中，日元疲软、更疲软、最疲软推动全球资产市场走高，但对于富有的金融资产持有者来说，所有好事都有尽头。日元是全球最被低估的货币，它既是美国和中国这两个大国之间的争议点，也是普通日本选民的关键问题。有三种方法可以解开日元这个戈尔迪之结，但美国财政部和日本政客只倾向于其中一种。
I will explain the mechanics of each method to strengthen the yen and then conclude with why the final one is the preferred option. Then I will talk about politically how to execute the third option. Finally, which is why you read my human slop, I will detail why Bitcoin and crypto will moon as dollar liquidity surges higher.
我将解释每种加强日元的方法的机制，然后总结为什么最后一种是首选方案。接着，我会讨论如何在政治上执行第三种方案。最后，这也是你阅读我的人类垃圾内容的原因，我将详细说明为什么随着美元流动性激增，比特币和加密货币将飞涨。
The three options:
三种选择：
1. The BOJ raises rates aggressively so that the dollar-yen interest rate differential, at least at the short end, evaporates.
1. 日本央行激进加息，使美元兑日元的利率差（至少在短期端）消失。
2. The government cajoles domestic and public institutions like the GPIF to change their investment mandate to sell foreign and buy local assets.
2. 政府说服国内和公共机构（如GPIF）改变其投资授权，卖出外国资产并买入本地资产。
3. [PREFERRED OPTION] The MOF repos its holdings of US treasuries to the Fed in exchange for dollars. Then sells dollars to purchase yen in the forex market.
3. [首选方案] 日本财务省将其持有的美国国债回购给美联储，以换取美元。然后在外汇市场上卖出美元以买入日元。
Before I get into the details, degens should ask themselves why talk about the yen strengthening now. So many folks over the previous decades proclaimed now is the time that the yen must strengthen and unwind the global carry trade. Two weeks ago, the US and Japan’s monetary mandarins carried out a joint currency manipulation, euphemistically called an intervention. Collusion and conspiracy confer different nomenclature when you are a plebe versus the state. US Treasury secretary Buffalo Bill Bessent proclaimed he wants the Fed to raise the FIMA Repo Facility’s counterparty limit so that the MOF can use its massive stash of assets to defend the yen.[4] The MOF also proclaimed that it is working hand in hand with the Americans to slam dollar-yen lower.[5] The authorities are telling us they are on board with a change in global currency relations; therefore, we must listen."
在我深入细节之前，堕落者们应该问问自己，为什么现在谈论日元走强。过去几十年里，很多人宣称现在是日元必须走强并解除全球套利交易的时候。两周前，美国和日本的货币官员进行了一次联合货币操纵，委婉地称为干预。当你是一个平民而非国家时，勾结和共谋有不同的称谓。美国财政部长Buffalo Bill Bessent宣称他希望美联储提高FIMA回购协议的交易对手限额，以便日本财务省能够利用其大量资产来捍卫日元。[4] 日本财务省也宣称正在与美国人携手压低美元兑日元汇率。[5] 当局告诉我们，他们支持全球货币关系的改变；因此，我们必须倾听。"
Substack link to full essay on my bio.
完整文章的Substack链接在我的个人简介中。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力