美股周一收盘基本持平，油价上涨，英特尔宣布500亿美元股票发行

THE COUNTDOWN IS ON. EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO GET THE EDGE AT THE END OF THE MARKET DAY. THIS IS "THE CLOSE."

STOPPED STARTING UP THE WEEK ON SHAKY FOOTING AS OIL PRICES SCALE THE WALL OF WORRY. I AM DAVID GURA.

WE ARE KICKING UP TO THE CLOSING BELL HERE IN THE U.S..

AS WE REACHED CLOSING BELL HERE IN NEW YORK CITY, THE S&P DOWN SLIGHTLY. THIS HAS BEEN THE STORY OF THE DAY SO FAR, VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT IN EQUITIES. BRENT CRUDE HIGHER AS WE FOCUS ON THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS AFFECTING THE MARKETS ON THIS MONDAY. BRENT UP ABOUT 5% OVER THE COURSE OF THE DIE AS MARKETS REACTED PRESIDENT TRUMP TALKING ABOUT THE PROSPECTS TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE BETWEEN IRAN AND OMAN.

DOLLAR-YEN, AS WE TALK ABOUT GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION, SEEING THAT RISE SLIGHTLY HERE. AS WE LOOK AT THE EFFECTS OF THE TREASURY SECRETARY'S EFFORTS TO BOOST THE YEN. INTEL ANNOUNCING A $50 BILLION SHARE SALE, THE FIRST OF ITS KIND SINCE 1971 COME AS WE SEE MARKETS HAVE MORE FAITH IN THAT COMPANY'S ABILITY TO WRITE THAT SHIP AFTER A TOUGH NUMBER OF YEARS. THE U.S. GOVERNMENT INVOLVEMENT IN INTEL AS WELL. ISABELLE: LET'S LOOK AT SOME OF THE DAY'S BIGGEST MOVERS.

DOMINO'S PIZZA STOCK DOWN NEARLY 2% AFTER THEY WERE CUT FROM FIVE TO A WHOLE. THEY SAY THE SAME STORE PROFILE CAN ACCELERATE MEANINGFULLY IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2026. MONDAY.COM SHARES DOWN BY MORE THAN 5% AFTER AN ACTIVIST GAVE A REVENUE FORECAST THAT IS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED. THE GARDENS ALSO MISS THE AVERAGE ESTIMATES. TRADE DESK IS ALSO DOWN 5%. I SHOULD HAVE GIVEN YOU THIS. THIS ONE IS REALLY SOMETHING TO WATCH BECAUSE IT IS DOWN NEARLY 5%.

MULTIPLE FIRMS ARE DOWNGRADING THE ADVERTISING COMPANY AFTER WEAK EARNINGS. 13 HAVE DOWNGRADED THE STOCK FROM HSBC, TRUEST, YOU NAME IT. DAVID: LET'S KING THINGS UP WITH CALLIE COX, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AT RITHOLTZ MANAGEMENT PAYTON WASHINGTON PLAYING A BIG ROLE IN THE MARKETS. CURIOUS HOW YOU ARE THINKING ABOUT WHERE WE ARE IN TERMS OF THE SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST, HOW MUCH THAT IS STILL IMPACTING MARKETS AS WE MAKE OUR WAY THROUGH THE TAIL END OF EARNINGS SEASON?

CALLIE: WE ARE GETTING LOTS OF DIFFERENT HEADLINES. EVERY DAY I WAKE UP, THERE IS ANOTHER HEADLINE TO DIGEST IN THE U.S.-IRAN CONFLICT, BUT NOT A LOT OF PROGRESS. BUT WE HAVE BEEN SAYING, CONSIDER THE HEADLINES A DISTRACTION. WE'VE BEEN WATCHING A NUMBER OF SHIPS GOING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. GASOLINE PRICES. WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING CONTAINER PRICES AS WELL. UNTIL WE SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THERE, IT IS HARD TO SAY ANY RESOLUTION COULD BE IMPACTFUL FOR THE U.S.

ECONOMY COMING OUT OF THE CONFLICT. DAVID: I WONDER HOW YOU NERD INVESTORS HAVE GOTTEN TO THIS ENVIRONMENT, WE SEE THAT MANIFEST IN OIL PRICES. GIVEN HOW LONG THIS CRISIS HAS LASTED, MUCH LONGER THAN THE PRESIDENT SAID, THE FACT THAT WE HAVE AT A NUMBER OF DAYS WHERE THE STORY SEEMS TO VACILLATE, IS THERE A DEAL OR NOT, HOW MUCH ATTENTION IS IT ATTRACTING AT THIS STAGE? CALLIE: CERTAINLY NOT IN MARCH. WE SAW THE INITIAL SHOCK OF THIS CONFLICT, POTENTIALLY HELP THAT IT COULD GET.

SINCE THEN, AND YOU SEE THE POUND AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT GEOPOLITICAL POLICY CRISES. SINCE THEN, MARKETS HAVE SHRUGGED IT OFF A LITTLE BIT. THAT DOESN'T MEAN THE ECONOMIC DAMAGE IS DONE. THE LONGER AND LONGER THIS CONFLICT DRAGS ON, THE LESS POLICY SUPPORT WE CAN SEE FROM AROUND THE WORLD, THE LOWER THE SPR GOES, THE LONGER OFF-LINE DRILLERS ARE. WHAT WORRIES ME IS THAT ECONOMIC DAMAGE POSSIBLY SEEPING INTO CONSUMER SPENDING, BUSINESS SPENDING, TOO, BUT OUTSIDE OF AI, CAPEX IS FLAT.

IT'S ANOTHER CUT IN THIS ECONOMY THAT HAS BEEN SO RESILIENT BUT HAD SO MANY TIMES RECENTLY. ISABELLE: IF THE ECONOMY IS SO HEALTHY, WHY DOES THE MARKET SEEM SO STUCK? WHAT WILL HELP MARKETS BREAK OUT OF HIS RANGE BOUND TRADING? CALLIE: I WOULDN'T CALL THE ECONOMY HEALTHY. YOU COULD USE A LOT OF WORDS FOR IT. IT IS DEFINITELY STABLE, BUT STABLE IN A FRAGILE SPOT. THE JOB MARKET IS SENDING UNUSUAL SIGNS. THE LABOR MARKET HAS DECLINED FOR FIVE MONTHS, NOT SUBMIT YOU SEE IN A HEALTHY MARKET.

ALTHOUGH UNEMPLOYMENT IS LOW. DON'T GET ME STARTED ON PAYROLLS NUMBERS. THOSE ARE INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO PULL SIGNAL FROM AT THE MOMENT. WE SEE AN ECONOMY IN STASIS OF SORTS. WHAT WORRIES ME IS WE HAVE POTENTIALLY SEEN THE PEAK IN GROWTH THIS YEAR AFTER THE BOOST WE GOT FROM THE OBBBA EARLIER. THE MARKET SEES THIS COULD BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS AND THEY ARE TRYING TO FIND WHAT THE NEXT BULLISH STORY COULD BE. ISABELLE: I LIKE THAT DISTINCTION, MAYBE NOT HEALTHY BUT STABLE.

THE LABOR MARKET IS IN THIS STRANGE LOW HIRING, LOW FIRING ENVIRONMENT. WHAT WILL BREAK FIRST? CALLIE: THE LABOR MARKET IS INCREDIBLY HARD TO FIND SIGNAL FROM. THE TWO ARE LINKED CLOSELY TOGETHER. WHEN AMERICANS MAKE MONEY, THEY SPEND MONEY. MOST AMERICAN PRIMARY INCOME IS THEIR EMPLOYMENT. THERE IS A LOT A BIT OF THE WEALTH EFFECT GOING ON HERE. STOCKS HAVE DONE SO WELL OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS. YOU SEE THAT BREAK BETWEEN LOWER INCOME AND HIGHER INCOME CONSUMERS AND THEIR SPENDING.

IT'S HARD TO SAY WHAT WILL BREAK HERE. I WOULD DEFINITELY CONSIDER THE CONSUMER TO BE FRAGILE BUT STABLE. I WOULD SAY THE SAME THING ABOUT THE JOB MARKET. THERE, YOU HAVE TO CONSIDER ALL OF THE UNFORESEEN RISKS COMING THAT COULD RATTLE CONSUMER NERVES, THE STRAW THAT CAN BREAK THE CAMELS BACK. DAVID: YOU THINK OF THE NOTE OF CAUTION FROM KEVIN WARSH, LOOKING AT ONE PIECE OF DATA IN ISOLATION. CURIOUS HOW YOU THINK ABOUT THE JOBS REPORT WE GOT LAST WEEK, WHAT IT TELLS YOU ABOUT THE HEALTH OF THE LABOR MARKET?

WE HAVE SEEN A FED SO FOCUSED ON INFLATION, CONTINUES TO BE SO. DID ANYTHING MAKE YOU REEVALUATE THE DEGREE TO WHICH WE ARE FOCUSING ON ONE VERSUS THE OTHER? CALLIE: I HAVE HAD TO REPRIORITIZE WHAT I LOOK AT IN THE JOBS REPORT. LABOR FORCE IS NOT GROWING, YOU WILL NOT SEE THE GROWTH IN PAYROLLS BECAUSE THERE ARE FEWER AVAILABLE WORKERS TO SOAK UP THE REHIRING. I AM LOOKING AT THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. THAT DROPPED ABOUT POTENTIALLY BECAUSE OF LOWER PARTICIPATION.

IT DOESN'T TELL ME ANYTHING GOOD. IT IS OFF THE BASE IT REACHED IN 2023, SO IT'S CLIMBING. JUST THE LABOR FORCE DECLINING IN GENERAL IS NOT A TERRIBLY GOOD SIGN. IT SHOWS THE BASE UNDERNEATH THE JOB MARKET IS WEAKENING. SMALLER, SOFTER WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY PUSH IT OVER. IN ORDER TO SEE THAT, WE NEED TO SEE LAYOFFS, AND WE ARE NOT SEEING MANY LAYOUTS RIGHT NOW. DAVID: LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT THE UNIQUENESS IN THESE MARKETS AT THE MOMENT, YOU WRITE ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF UNDERSTANDING HOW MARKETS WORK.

THEY ARE NOT GOOD AT POINTING YOU TO THE STOCK MARKET'S NEXT MOVE. YOUR COUNSEL OR HOW YOU NAVIGATE THE UNIQUENESS OF THE MARKET WE ARE IN RIGHT NOW? CALLIE: THIS IS SOMETHING I WALK THERE WITH CLIENTS ALL THE TIME. A GOOD BASE FOR THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT A GOOD REASON FOR STOCKS TO SHOOT HIGHER ESPECIALLY AFTER THREE STRAIGHT YEARS OF DOUBLE-DIGIT GAINS. THAT IS THE MOMENT WE ARE IN RIGHT NOW. EARNINGS OF COURSE ARE INCREDIBLY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT, S&P COMPANIES PUTTING UP 20% YEAR-OVER-YEAR GROWTH IN EARNINGS.

THAT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE A FRAGILE MOMENT FOR CORPORATE AMERICA. BUT THERE ARE OTHER FRAGILE SPOTS AROUND CORPORATE AMERICA. ULTIMATELY, IF YOU WANT TO SEE A GANGBUSTERS RALLY, AND THIS IS ONE OF THE REASONS WHY WE ARE ALMOST FOUR YEARS INTO THIS BULL MARKET WITH SUCH STRONG GAINS, YOU NEED LOW EXPECTATIONS AND LOW TO MID RESULTS. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE INCREDIBLY HIGH EXPECTATIONS. DAVID: THAT IS CALLIE COX AT RITHOLTZ WEALTH MANAGEMENT.

WE WILL SET YOU UP FOR THIS WEEK'S CRUCIAL CPI REPORT. THOMAS HOENIG'S REACTION TO LAST WEEK'S JOBS CUTS. ISABELLE: FROM FED CONCERNS TO FOOD FEARS. CRAIG STEVENSON JOINS US LIVE TO DISCUSS HOW HIS COMPANY IS NAVIGATING CYCLOSPORA CONCERNS. DAVID: AND A SPECIAL CONVERSATION WITH BART SCOTT AS HE IS TEAMING UP WITH THE JETS, BOOSTING THE FOOTBALL FAN EXPERIENCE BEYOND THE STADIUM. ALL OF THAT AND MORE COMING UP. THIS IS "THE CLOSE" FROM BLOOMBERG. ♪ ISABELLE: SHARES OF INTEL TAKING A LEG LOWER IN TODAY'S TRADE AFTER ANNOUNCING A NEW STOCK SALE

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