主动型ETF已成主流，7月吸金580亿美元

July was really a blockbuster. We saw active ETFs rake in $58,000,000,000, and I think the milestone is pushed to $2,000,000,000,000. This is definitely a big deal, and it really signals that maybe this once niche investment product is now becoming mainstream. Talk to us more about how active ETFs have grown in the past years. Yeah. I I think it's absolutely active ETFs are mainstream. They're 86% of all the launches.

You certainly see JPMorgan as well as some of our competitors actively going into the space, no pun intended. And what I find most interesting is that you're starting to see and this has probably helped driving the flows. A lot of these active ETFs are being put into models, and models really drive assets and help explode the overall flows. Because if you think about it, clients who are long term investors who are three three, five, ten, thirty years, they wanna be invested in a strategy is that that's gonna earn them wealth and not be subjected to kind of the quick ups and downs of the marketplace.

What about active fixed income ETFs? They're growing roughly twice their rate of passive, and they're capturing around 40% of the flows. Do you see more demand between active fixed income versus active equity? Well, overall, flows for the for active are roughly 37 to 40%. So fixed income is slightly higher. We're starting starting with a smaller base. Now the overall active market, it fixed income is largely an active market, whether it be, you know, ETFs or mutual funds or, you know, SMAs.

So probably 75% of the overall market is So thinking about how do you outperform with the ETF structure, you have a better structure. Why not put these into models? Why not for example, we just converted an ETF, JPRF. It's a preferred fund. It typically outperforms its passive peers. It has a 4.8% duration, JPRF. I think people are gonna buy this all day long as part of their extended fixed income allocation. Makes sense to me.

You have more product. Okay. Let me when I think about bonds today in this environment, I relate to the people going to money market mutual funds and s gov, which is t bills. Because you have no risk, really, and you have 3.8% yield. Until that goes lower, why not? You were saying active fixed income, and I know people are buying these. What would be the how would you sell me out of this more stable cash position into something that's active when we have seen that the ag and other bond ETFs has not hedged stocks when there's a downturn?

Yeah. And that's a fair point. You brought it up earlier about the widowmaker, TLT. Yeah. There's been flows there, but that's the long end of the curve. You know, I think the the intermediate and slightly below intermediate portion of the curve is where it makes more sense. And when you have an active manager, you can manage duration. So, like, JPRF, what I just talked about, has a 4.8% a 4.8 duration, whereas some of the other preferred funds have a higher duration.

So you're bringing down your duration in that instance. If you're looking at other fixed income, you can manage that duration wherein a passive instrument, you really can. Let's talk about bond managers versus stock pickers because David Code and my team, he puts the mutual fund flows out every month. It's the same story. Stock pickers, total outflows every month, big time. Everyone else kinda treading water taking in cash.

Are bond managers just lucky to play against a inferior index like the ag versus the stock pickers who have to play against the S and P, which is full of momentum, or are they really just better? Well, you know, in in our business, let's hope is is not really a strategy. Luck, you know, I guess some people have it. But fixed income is typically, and it's ingrained in us institutionally, that is part of our overall allocation, whether you agree with it or not.

So when you have an instrument that's cheaper, and it's gonna immediately help you outperform. If you're gonna access 50% of the the outside of the ag that's not in the ag, you have the ability to outperform the securitized portion of the market, other portions of the MBS or the ABS market. So an active manager, I'm not gonna say it's easier because our portfolio managers would not agree with me that it's easier, but the the odds are higher that you're gonna outperform.

I wanna about models. Erik and I earlier in the call, we said, Jon Maier is the guy to ask because he had models in his career. They make up ETF make up around 55% of model portfolio allocations. Talk to us about how maybe financial advisers are using ETFs as a shift in how they assets? Is this becoming the new norm? Similarly, we always talk about in the team that, you know, distribution is the hard part when it comes to ETFs, but some are like, I just wanna get into a big model, and that'll help me already.

Well, you know, distribution for models is actually pretty difficult, and the assets tend to be sticky in models. Building a model business is is not easy. Selling ETF for to for a financial adviser is probably a lot a lot easier, but if they sell the entire model, it stick your assets over time. Now I started with models, and I was a Merrill. Those grew because they're open architecture. I think everybody likes to kinda see different parts of the universe and not stick to one company, and I think that's where you see a lot of success.

Some of our competitors are, you know, just proprietary, and they may have the right ETFs, but really most don't. So that's why looking at an open architecture, I think, makes a lot of sense. Putting it into putting whether it be passive or active into a model and adjusting whether it be quarterly or monthly, real it you know, you're getting institutional investing, you know, made for retail. And I think that's only gonna grow as the adviser community shrinks and you have a scalable solution like models.

You put thematics in your notes here. You used to work at Global X, and they'd dig in thematics. JPMorgan doesn't do a ton of that. Thematic ETFs are now up to, I think, a 160,000,000,000 or something. They've had kind of a renaissance. And I wanna get your take on those. They seem to me like they're a good complement to a cheap beta or cheap active core, and you participate in areas that are a little younger and the stocks aren't in the index yet.

Yep. So what's wrong with that? I don't think there's anything wrong with it. I mean, you love to talk about hot sauce, Erik. So it's like, I I would think thematics are are hot sauce, but if you really break down what thematics are are and also, like, photonics. Do you even know what photonics are? I'm just Recently. I was wondering. I had to Google it the other day on my ego. I think I got it. Google every fourth ETF file.

Yeah. It's crazy. That's why I like doing it, though. Yeah. It's fun. It's fun. Yes. Every day is a new day. But thematics, it changes over time. So, like, electric vehicles, you know, six or seven years ago is kinda ingrained in in, like, the broad indexes today. So in terms of thematic investing, we at JPMorgan do thematic investing, but it's built into kind of our growth allocations or our technology allocations. And an active manager gets to select what's inside or what the specific company they're gonna use and look at those companies based on fundamentals and valuation versus being in an index that is, you know, somewhat arbitrary in terms of kinda creating the rules to encapsulate these companies to put in those indexes.

So, sure, people love to get into the the latest FOMO trade. The people who get in early often are beneficiaries of that trade as we've seen recently. Speaking of FOMO and hot sauce, which, Erik, I think you should really trademark. You should really work on trademark like universal term. But you do popularized I need to make money on this somehow. Yes. You do. Talk to us about your thoughts just in general on leveraged ETFs.

I mean, they've taken the w