专家：伊朗正成功扰乱特朗普，霍尔木兹海峡成博弈焦点

When the regime in Tehran hears something like we are low keying it, how does it interpret language like that? I mean, frankly, I think that they think president Trump, is all over the place and says too many things the ball. Looks like we may have lost our professor here. We'll try to reconnect with professor Haykel as we consider what the president has said already. Quote, we are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact that they have no money, unquote, saying that The US naval blockade of the country was deepening the financial pressure.

And, of course, we know as long as that blockade is there, it's much more difficult for Iran to make money. They cannot start getting oil out of the country by train or pipeline very effectively. They need to keep the strait. That's why they're talking to Oman about creating this new order in which there are multiple lanes of travel through the strait, a negotiation that has not involved The US. Now when you also think about the level of munitions that the country our country has been managing, it also makes one wonder what the next moves might be or maybe justify this last one by the president.

As the deputy defense secretary Steve Feinberg wrote to the major defense contractors, they had no more than twenty one days to submit plans to drive significantly faster, more aggressive delivery schedules. That's from a memo obtained by the Washington Post. And as we reconnect with professor Haykel, I wonder, professor, if you can finish your thought there. And let me add the question. We hear a lot about forty seven years.

Yeah. Many of those forty seven years was Iran preparing for this moment? Okay. So I apologize for the earlier. I'm in The Middle East. I'm in a bad zone when it comes to the Internet. I mean, as I was saying, the Iranians are trying to the Iranians are trying to rattle the president, and I think they're doing a pretty good job of doing that. And, you know, he he has to be much more much cooler in dealing with them. As far as the Iranians in preparing for this, they have been.

They're a revolutionary regime. They've been trying to spread their ideology all over the Middle East, and, they were trying to build a nuclear weapon. They thought that a nuclear weapon was really the way to, create deterrence and to protect their regime and its survival. They've discovered that actually controlling harmless is much more effective. It's an interesting way of putting it here that this waterway is more powerful in influencing The United States than the threat of a nuclear weapon.

That said, why would Iran ever give this up? Why would it ever make a deal with The United States? I think it also wants to sell oil, so it wants to find some sort of agreement, on the reopening of Hormuz. But what it wants to do is toll it. I mean, it wants to it wants to generate revenue, and it wants to dominate and control its neighbors and countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and so on. And this is one outcome of one possible outcome of this war that has to be absolutely stopped.

I mean, the Iranians cannot control this region completely because they would have literally the entire world over a barrel. They would be able to control the global economy through oil and gas. The world over a barrel. Someone's gotta write that headline. Professor Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected, the plan for Hamas to demilitarize, to disarm, and have Israel withdraw from Gaza. Could there ever be a deal with Iran without this component of peace between Israel and Lebanon?

Well, the Iranians want to actually bring in as many other theaters of war into this deal. They were trying to include Lebanon. They're trying to include Israel and Gaza. They're trying to include Yemen and and Bab El Mandeb, which is another theater of operation that may heat up very soon and that would block the passage of oil and other ships through the Red Sea. So the Iranians want to do this, and they have to be denied this.

These are separate theaters of operation, especially in Lebanon where they control the the country through a militia, you know, one of these proxy militias that they they've developed. And they have them in Iraq and Lebanon and Yemen and amongst the Palestinians. I think what Netanyahu is trying to do is also try to tell president Trump, but mainly for electoral reasons because he's up for elections later this fall for and Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, and he doesn't want to, you know, basically concede anything to Hamas because if he does, he looks weak, and that's not good for electoral support.

Yeah. Right. So what is this phase that we're entering here, professor, as the president refers to we're low keying it, semi negotiations. Do we just churn like this for weeks or months at a time? It's possible. No war, no peace. And, you know, everyone at the beginning of this war was predicting a barrel of oil at a 150 to 200 because of the major disruption that Hormuz represented. It turns out that didn't happen partly because The US is such a major producer now, also because the Saudis and the Emiratis were able to ship their some of their oil through their pipelines away from Hormuz, away from the Persian Gulf, and also because the Chinese played a big role in the the in decreasing their demand for for imports.

Mhmm. So all of that that combination led to a spike not happening. Now the big question, think, is going into the end of the summer and into the fall, if this continues, will we see a spike, or will, you know, US production and Chinese behavior and and the Red Sea remain open so that we don't see a spike? And I I think that's really the the big question that remains unanswered.