特朗普对伊朗态度转缓，油价大涨
Trump Signals Restraint on Iran | Balance of Power 8/10/2026
LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C., THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" WITH JOE MATHIEU. JOE: THE PRESIDENT DEMANDS COMPENSATION FROM IRAN. WELCOME TO THE MONDAY EDITION AS PRESIDENT TRUMP ENTERS IRAN'S DEMAND FOR REPARATIONS WITH A BRAND-NEW CALLED TO COMPENSATE THE U.S. FOR THE KILLING OF AMERICANS. NEGOTIATIONS APPEAR TO HAVE COME TO A STANDSTILL. THE LATEST FROM BLOOMBERG WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT JOSH WINGROVE ON THE NORTH LAWN RIGHT NOW.
来自华盛顿的现场直播，这里是乔·马蒂厄主持的《权力平衡》。乔：总统要求伊朗赔偿。欢迎收看周一的节目，特朗普总统就伊朗赔偿要求提出全新呼吁，要求伊朗为杀害美国人向美国赔偿。谈判似乎陷入僵局。彭博社白宫记者乔什·温格罗夫现在在北草坪带来最新报道。
LAWMAKERS A LEFT TOWN TO CAMPAIGN FULL-TIME. WE WILL TALK MIDTERMS AND THE CONGRESSIONAL AGENDA WITH CONGRESSWOMAN SUZAN DELBENE, CHAIR OF THE DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE, WITH INSIGHTS FROM RICK DAVIS AND JEANNE SHEEHAN ZAINO FOR THE HOUR. WE START WITH CHARLIE PELLETT, HIS VIEW ON THE MARKETS. HOW IS IT GOING? CHARLIE: A LOT OF RED ON THIS BACK TO WORK MONDAY. THE S&P WAS AT A RECORD FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW RETREATING FROM THAT RECORD.
议员们离开城镇全职竞选。我们将与民主党国会竞选委员会主席苏珊·德尔贝尼众议员讨论中期选举和国会议程，并邀请里克·戴维斯和珍妮·希恩·扎伊诺提供见解。我们首先请查理·佩莱特谈谈他对市场的看法。情况如何？查理：这个复工的周一有很多红色。标普指数周五创下纪录，现在正从该纪录回落。
THE KEY TAKE AWAY, LITTLE CHANGE. OFF SESSION LOWS. 7752. THAT IS A DROP OF UNDER 1/10 OF 1%. THERE IS A MOVE HIGHER IN ADVANCE ON THE S&P. THE S&P AT 7751, DOWN UNDER .1%. DOW INDUSTRIALS OFF BY .2%. NASDAQ DOWN .4%. BLOOMBERG MAG SEVEN INDEX IN THE RED, DOWN .2%. THE SOX DOWN NOW BY 2%. TWO-YEAR, FOUR POINT 23%. 30-YEAR, 5.24 PERCENT. SPOT GOLD OF $15 AN OUNCE. THAT IS A GAIN OF .3%. BIG MOVE FOR CRUDE KEEPS GOING.
关键要点是变化不大。盘中低点7752点，跌幅不到0.1%。标普指数略有上涨。标普指数报7751点，下跌不到0.1%。道琼斯工业指数下跌0.2%。纳斯达克下跌0.4%。彭博七巨头指数下跌0.2%。费城半导体指数下跌2%。两年期国债收益率4.23%，30年期5.24%。现货黄金每盎司15美元，上涨0.3%。原油的大幅波动仍在继续。
UP ANOTHER 4.2% TODAY. $81.49 A BARREL. BRENT BECK ABOVE $87. -- BACK ABOVE 87%. BOIL HIGHER AS IRAN AND OMAN REMAIN SHORT OF A DEAL TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. THE COST OF HIRING A SUPERTANKER TO CARRY OIL ON THE MIDDLE EAST -CHINA ROUTE IS NOW APPROACHING $500,000 A DAY BECAUSE OF THE IRAN WAR. BOIL MAJORS ALL ADVANCING ALONG WITH THE PRICE OF OIL. EXXON MOBIL UP BY 4%. CHEVRON UP 4%. CONOCOPHILLIPS UP BY 3.9%.
今天再涨4.2%，报每桶81.49美元。布伦特原油回升至87美元上方。由于伊朗和阿曼仍未就重新开放霍尔木兹海峡达成协议，油价走高。由于伊朗战争，租用超级油轮从中东到中国航线运输石油的成本现在接近每天50万美元。石油巨头股价随油价上涨。埃克森美孚上涨4%，雪佛龙上涨4%，康菲石油上涨3.9%。
FOR ON-DEMAND NEWS 24 HOURS A DAY, SUBSCRIBED TO BLOOMBERG NEWS NOW WHEREVER YOU GET YOUR PODCASTS. I'M CHARLIE PELLETT AND THAT IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. JOE: THANK YOU SO MUCH. CHARLIE PELLETT, THE VOICE OF WALL STREET IN THE NEW YORK SUBWAY. WE ARE BACK WITH ANOTHER CHECK ON WALL STREET. COMING OFF THE BEST WEEK FOR STOCKS SINCE APRIL. WE WERE IN RECORD TERRITORY WILL BE CLOSED THE LIGHTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE S&P 500 UP LAST WEEK ABOUT 3.5 PERCENT.
如需全天候24小时点播新闻，请在获取播客的任何平台订阅彭博新闻。我是查理·佩莱特，以上是彭博商业快讯。乔：非常感谢。查理·佩莱特，纽约地铁里华尔街的声音。我们回来再次关注华尔街。在经历了自4月以来最好的一周后，我们周五晚上收盘时处于纪录区域。标普500指数上周上涨约3.5%。
WE WILL TAKE THINGS IN STRIDE TODAY AS WE GEAR UP FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF EARNINGS WITH OUR EYES A COURSE ON OIL PRICES AND CHARLIE POINTING US THERE ON A DAILY BASIS. UP OVER 4% FOR WTI AND BRENT TODAY. WTI NOW LOOKING AT $81.50. BRENT KNOCKING ON 87 DOLLAR A BARREL. A LOT OF IT HAS TO DO WITH THE NEWS OR LACK THEREOF FROM OVERSEAS. BUT WE AGO TODAY PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS JUST CLIMBING DOWN FROM THE LATEST THREATS TO OBLITERATE IRAN, HAVING BEEN ASKED BY IRAN'S NEIGHBORS TO NOT GO ALL IN WITH THE FULL ON STRIKES THAT THE PRESIDENT WAS THREATENING.
今天我们将从容应对，因为我们正在为下一轮财报做准备，同时密切关注油价，而查理每天都在指引我们。WTI和布伦特原油今日上涨超过4%。WTI目前报81.50美元，布伦特原油逼近每桶87美元。这在很大程度上与海外的消息或缺乏消息有关。但今天早些时候，特朗普总统刚刚从最新威胁要摧毁伊朗的言论中缓和下来，此前伊朗的邻国要求他不要全面实施他所威胁的全面打击。
NOW HE'S TALKING ABOUT ECONOMIC PRESSURE AS THE PLAY WAS NO FORMAL NEGOTIATIONS UNDERWAY. IRAN IS TALKING WITH OMAN ABOUT A NEW WORLD ORDER IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. THE PRESIDENT SITTING DOWN WITH AXIOS TO SAY THE U.S. IS ONLY SEMI-NEGOTIATING WITH TEHRAN. IN FACT, WE ARE LOW-KEYING IT. WATCHING IRAN AND THE FACT THEY HAVE NO MONEY. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF UPDATES EVER SINCE THAT TOOK PLACE WITH THE PRESIDENT NOW ON TRUTH SOCIAL ASKING FOR COMPENSATION.
现在他谈到经济压力，因为目前没有正式谈判在进行。伊朗正在与阿曼就霍尔木兹海峡的新秩序进行会谈。总统接受Axios采访时表示，美国只是在与德黑兰进行半谈判。事实上，我们是在低调处理。观察伊朗，他们没钱。自那以后有一些更新，总统现在在Truth Social上要求赔偿。
THIS WAS JUST IN THE LAST HOUR. "REPRESENTATIVES OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN ARE ASKING FOR COMPENSATION FOR THE DAMAGE DONE TO THEM DURING THE LAST FIVE MONTHS OF MILITARY CONFLICT. IT'S AN INTERESTING IDEA, BECAUSE NOW I AM LIKEWISE DEMANDING COMPENSATION FROM IRAN FOR ALL OF THE PEOPLE THEY HAVE KILLED AND GRAVELY WOUNDED WITH THEIR ROTUND BOMBS IN MANY CONFLICT FOR WHICH THEY ARE FAMOUS. THERE IS" MORE WHERE THAT CAME FROM WITH BLOOMBERG NEWS NOW REPORTING THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS EXTENDED A WAIVER ALLOWING FOREIGN SHIPS TO TRANSPORT OIL AND WITH LIMITS.
这就在过去一小时内发生。"伊朗伊斯兰共和国的代表正在为过去五个月军事冲突中对他们造成的损害寻求赔偿。这是一个有趣的想法，因为我现在同样要求伊朗赔偿他们用其著名的旋转炸弹在许多冲突中杀害和重伤的所有人。还有更多消息，彭博新闻社现在报道，总统已延长一项豁免，允许外国船只运输石油，但有限制。"
WE ARE LUCKY TO HAVE JOSH WINGROVE ON THE NORTH LAWN OF THE WHITE HOUSE NOW. BLOOMBERG WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT. JOSH, IT'S INTERESTING TO HEAR THE PRESIDENT'S EVOLVING POSTURE ONE WEEK AFTER WE THREATENED TOTAL OBLITERATION. NOW WE ARE LOW-KEYING IT. WHAT IS HE MEAN BY THAT? JOSH: THE GOALPOSTS KEEPS MOVING, WHETHER THEY ARE ON THE FIELD OR IN THE STADIUM IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR. THE PRESIDENT SEEMS TO BE REACTING TO WHAT HE THINKS WAS A GOAL PUSH ON THE PART OF THE IRANIANS BY SEEKING THESE DAMAGES.
我们很荣幸现在邀请到乔什·温格罗夫在白宫北草坪。彭博社白宫记者。乔什，听到总统在我们威胁彻底摧毁一周后立场不断演变，这很有趣。现在我们低调处理。他是什么意思？乔什：球门柱一直在移动，它们是在球场上还是在体育场里并不完全清楚。总统似乎是在回应他认为伊朗人通过寻求这些赔偿而推进的目标。
HE'S MEETING THEM TIT-FOR-TAT ON THAT. PEOPLE ARE READING INTO HIS LOW-KEYING COMMENT IS A BIT OF A SHIFT POTENTIALLY. THAT SUGGEST HE'S COMFORTABLE WITH THE STATUS QUO AS OPPOSED TO PREPARING TO PICK IT BACK TO THE THREATENED MASSIVE ATTACK -- PIVOT BACK TO THE THREATENED MASSIVE ATTACK ON IRAN. IT IS TEA LEAVES READING AT THIS POINT. THE PRESIDENT'S EVENTS TODAY ARE NOT PUBLIC, ALTHOUGH HE HAS A SIGNING. THOSE HAVE A TRACK RECORD OF OPENING.
他正在对此以牙还牙。人们解读他低调的评论可能是一种转变的迹象。这表明他对现状感到满意，而不是准备重新拾起对伊朗的大规模攻击威胁——重新转向对伊朗的大规模攻击威胁。目前这只是在解读迹象。总统今天的活动不公开，尽管他有一个签署仪式。这些活动有公开的先例。
MAYBE AT 2:00 P.M. WE WILL HEAR FROM HIM. THAT'S AFTER HIS SCHEDULED SWEARING-IN OF HIS NEW ATTORNEY GENERAL. VICE PRESIDENT VANCE SANG OVER THE WEEKEND WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GAME ON THIS. THAT IS BASICALLY THE OPERATIVE, RIGHT NOW -- M.O. RIGHT NOW. WE DO NOT KNOW WHEN THEY WILL REACH AN AGREEMENT. THE U.S. HAS REMAINED OPAQUE ON WHAT CURRENT TRAFFIC LEVELS ARE. THEY WERE BRAGGING SHIPS ARE GETTING UNDERWAY UNDER THE COVER OF NIGHT.
也许下午2点我们会听到他的消息。那是在他按计划宣誓就职新司法部长之后。副总统万斯周末表示，我们正处于这场博弈的中期。这基本上就是现在的操作方式——现在的行事风格。我们不知道他们何时会达成协议。美国对目前的交通量水平保持不透明。他们曾吹嘘船只趁着夜色启航。
THAT WILL BE A PAIN POINT. CONTINUING TO WATCH THIS ONE. GAS PRICES REMAIN HIGH. REPUBLICANS WILL NOT BE COMFORTABLE WITH THAT. JOE: RIGHT AT FOUR DOLLARS A GALLON NATIONALLY TODAY. LIKELY GOING TO MOVE HIGHER BASED ON THE INCREASE IN CRUDE. IT'S INTERESTING TIMING. THE LOW-KEYING IT FOLLOWING A CONVERSATION ABOUT MUNITIONS. OUR STOCKPILES PARTICULARLY OF LONG RANGE WEAPONS LIKE OUR ATTACK SUPPLY HAS DWINDLED TO ALMOST NOTHING.
那将是一个痛点。继续关注这个。汽油价格仍然很高。共和党人不会对此感到满意。乔：今天全国平均油价正好是每加仑4美元。基于原油价格上涨，可能会进一步走高。时机很有趣。在关于弹药的对话之后，低调处理。我们的库存，特别是像攻击性补给这样的远程武器，已经 dwindled 到几乎为零。
THERE IS A DEFENSE DEPARTMENT MEMO THAT WAS OBTAINED BY THE WASHINGTON POST THAT SHOWS THE DEPUTY DEFENSE SECRETARY WRITING TO DEFENSE CONTRACTORS GIVING THEM 21 DAYS TO SUBMIT PLANS TO DRIVE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AND DELIVER WEAPONS MORE QUICKLY HERE. TO WHAT EXTENT, JOSH, AND I DON'T KNOW IF YOU CAN WEIGH IN ON THIS, OUR STRATEGIC DECISIONS BASED ON MUNITIONS LEVELS? JOSH: I DON'T THINK ANYONE KNOWS PUBLICLY. THERE HAS BEEN A WEIRD DICHOTOMY.
有一份国防部备忘录被《华盛顿邮报》获得，显示副国防部长写信给国防承包商，给他们21天时间提交计划，以显著加快速度并更快地交付武器。乔什，在多大程度上——我不知道你是否能就此发表意见——我们的战略决策是基于弹药水平的？乔什：我认为没有人在公开场合知道。一直存在一种奇怪的二分法。
THERE'S BEEN ALL THIS REPORTING THAT TO SOME EXTENT CONCERNS ARE STARTING TO GROW AROUND U.S. STOCKPILES. NOT ONLY WHAT THEY HAVE FOR THEMSELVES BUT THE LINE OF ALLIES AND LIKE-MINDED NATIONS THAT ARE WAITING FOR CERTAIN SUPPLIES OF THEIR OWN. THAT ORDER KEEPS SHIFTING FROM MONTH-TO-MONTH. THE U.S. HAS BEEN PUSHING BACK ON THIS PUBLICLY, TRUMP SAYING WE HAVE MORE WEAPONS THAN WE KNOW WHAT TO DO WITH. THERE'S NOT A LOT OF EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT IF THAT IS THE CASE.
一直有这些报道，在某种程度上，人们开始对美国库存感到担忧。不仅是对他们自己拥有的，还有等待自己特定供应的盟友和志同道合国家的队列。那个订单每个月都在变化。美国一直在公开反驳这一点，特朗普说我们拥有的武器比我们知道怎么用的还多。没有太多证据支持这种情况是否属实。
IN GOING SO FAR TO ACCUSE THE OUTLET SAYING THIS OF TREASON AND THREATENING TO GO AFTER THEM FOR REPORTING. IT IS REALLY MUDDIED THE WATERS. THAT'S THE POSITION OF THE ADMINISTRATION, THE LEAKERS NEED TO BE PROSECUTED BUT THE INFORMATION IS INACCURATE AND THAT DOESN'T SQUARE. THERE ARE A LOT OF SIGNS THERE ARE SOME ONGOING CONCERNS AROUND THE PACE AT WHICH AMERICA PRODUCES THE WEAPONS FOR ITSELF AND FOR ITS ALLIES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THAT.
如此严厉地指责该媒体发表此言论为叛国，并威胁要追究其报道责任，这确实混淆了视听。这是政府的立场，泄密者需要被起诉，但信息不准确，这说不通。有很多迹象表明，美国为自己及其盟友生产武器的速度存在一些持续的担忧。我们将继续关注这一点。
WHETHER THAT IS FORCING TRUMP'S HAND OR INFLUENCING TRUMP'S HAND IN IRAN, NO ONE CAN SAY RIGHT NOW. JOE: JUST A MINUTE LEFT. YOU MENTIONED TODD BLANCHE, THE PRESIDENT'S NEW ATTORNEY GENERAL. NOW ACTING. HE WILL BE SWORN IN FOR THE FULL PERMANENT POSITION TODAY. DO WE KNOW WHAT HAPPENS TO BILL PULTE, THE MAN WHO'S BEEN KEEPING THE CHAIR WARM FOR DNI AND WAS FLOATED AT ONE POINT TO BE INSTALLED AS AN ACTING AG IF THEY COULD NOT GET THIS CONFIRMATION PROCESS THROUGH?
无论是迫使特朗普在伊朗问题上采取行动，还是影响他的决策，目前无人能断言。乔：只剩一分钟了。你提到了托德·布兰奇，总统的新任司法部长，目前是代理。他今天将宣誓就任正式职位。我们知道比尔·普尔特会怎样吗？他一直担任国家情报总监的临时职务，曾一度被提议在确认程序无法通过时担任代理司法部长。
JOSH: HE'S BACK AT FHSA. HE NEVER LEFT IT. HE'S BACK TO THE ORIGINAL ROLE. THERE'S BEEN AN ONGOING QUESTION IS TO WIN AND IF THE ADMINISTRATION WILL SEEK TO DO SOME SORT OF PUBLIC OFFERING OF FANNIE AND FREDDIE. NOW THAT HE'S BACK IN THEIR FULL TIME, THE QUESTION IN MY MIND COMING BACK UP TO SPEED. MORTGAGE RATES ARE NEAR THE HIGHEST LEVEL THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION. THAT'S A HUGE AFFORDABILITY QUESTION FOR THE ADMINISTRATION.
乔什：他回到了FHSA。他从未离开过。他回到了原来的角色。一直有一个问题，即政府是否会寻求对房利美和房地美进行某种公开上市。现在他全职回归，我心中重新浮现的问题是，抵押贷款利率接近特朗普政府时期的最高水平。这对政府来说是一个巨大的负担能力问题。
THE QUESTION IS, WHAT IF ANYTHING THEY WILL DO NOW THAT HE'S BACK TO ONLY WEARING ONE HAT. JOE: GREAT
问题是，既然他重新只担任一个职务，他们会采取什么行动（如果有的话）。乔：很好。
原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力