FreightWaves CEO：货运衰退已结束，运价上涨对通胀影响有限

Uncertainty over the straight of hormuz is keeping pressure on global shipping with vessel traffic still below pre-war levels. Let's ask Craig Fuller, CEO of Freight Waves, a company that provides realtime data on freight demand, pricing and capacity across the global logistics market. Craig, I want to have a broader discussion with you, but first any developments around the straight of for moves. Have we reached the cap beyond which, you know, hiring a ship just isn't doable because there is nowhere more for the price to go?

No, I mean ultimately the uh logistics market is responding to this. Higher prices for containers, higher prices for shipping. Uh but that's the great thing about logistics companies is they respond to these events. Uh they price it accordingly and we're seeing freight rerouted uh to account for this disruption which is just one of many many disruptions that we've had over the last you know inevitably over the last decade.

What about insurance costs? Do they continue to rise? Did we have any kind of fall off in insurance costs even when we got the memorandum of understanding?

Well, I think ultimately a lot of the cost the insurance cost is is priced in to uh the current conditions. While there are uh some attacks on civilian vessels, uh I think largely the sort of uh kinetic conflict is we'll call it simmering a little bit but not uh explosive. And so uh ultimately insurance companies and ship owners have have understand the risks uh and that is priced into the market currently.

Craig, I want your thoughts as well on this new Arctic route that's being reported on today. So apparently a China shipping company is going through the Arctic because polar ice caps melting allow it to traverse from Asia to Europe in 20 days as opposed to the regular 40 days it takes generally. Is this a route that could take off and help other shipping companies avoid these dangerous choke points?

Yeah, I mean this has been something that's been talked about for at least the last decade. The fact that the polar ice caps are melting which will provide new sea lanes. Russia has uh uh has some some break some ice breakers to be able to uh clear the lanes. Um, this is one of the reasons that Donald Trump uh has wanted Greenland is because ultimately if you're coming across the Arctic, you're going to pass Greenland and it provides a much uh from a strategic standpoint provides a really interesting sort of outcome.

Uh, but this is really a continuation something that shouldn't be a surprise to anybody uh because it's something we've been watching and monitoring for the past at least decade. uh and is is certainly the dream of the Chinese, the dream of the Russians uh to get access to uh the North uh Atlantic because and the Arctic Ocean because ultimately uh this provides uh you know avoids the bottleneck that is in the Middle East uh and allows them to route more direct traffic to North America.

Craig, just more broadly, port volumes are surging. Ocean carrier rates obviously have gone through the roof and they're passing on those costs. Energy search charges have been very very widespread and are getting more widespread. Truck manufacturing is tightening. All of this is a negative for the consumer and for those that are importing, but it's great news for the freight industry, right? Is is the freight recession definitively a thing of the past?

Oh, the freight recession has been over since November and uh everybody's celebrating because it's been a miserable existence. OSHA container lines uh they were out of a recession pretty quickly. They had a you know about an 8-month recession but trucking has been in a was in a recession really since 2022 and uh it ended in November of this past year of 25 and so everyone feels relief. I would I would dispute your uh comment about it bad for the consumer because ultimately when freight's moving uh that is good for consumers.

I mean transportation cost is about 3% of finished goods prices that consumers pay. So even if we see a doubling of freight rates, uh it's still a marginal impact for consumers in terms of inflation. So ultimately things are moving. The industry is feeling incredibly bullish. Uh and we're seeing volumes pick up on the international container market as well as in domestic trucking and rail. Uh it's up and to the right for the freight industry and I think that tells us a lot about consumer activity, but more importantly it tells us a lot about industrial activity.

Well, just on that point, everything I just mentioned are do they only add up to incremental costs for the consumer? Is this not a significant inflation push at all? Then

it's not a huge uh impact to inflation there. Ultimately, retailers will absorb those prices. The biggest risk to retailers uh and really manufacturers is losing sales. So, they will pay the higher freight rates uh and ultimately eat it in some of their margins. Uh but look, we've seen in the past earnings uh this past earning cycle that uh corporate profits are are at record highs. So there is uh some ability for retailers and manufacturers to absorb higher freight rates.

Ultimately, they want to get their products into the country. They want to get their products moving to in consumers. So they'll pay the higher rates and ultimately consumers are going to see a marginal impact. Not anything to worry about. What we worry about more about is demand erosion. uh which right now we're seeing the opposite. We're seeing particularly in the industrial side things pick up and consumer activity looks pretty strong.

Consumer volumes, you can look at the container lines, the reason the ports are doing so well is because consumers are buying goods and retailers are feeling much more confident about consumer activity, which I think is very strong. So, I wouldn't I wouldn't take any of the higher freight rates as a concern. Remember, we were at $22,000 in container uh prices, spot prices back during the peak of CO and we're only at $7,000 right now.

So, there's a lot of room to go before I think there'll be substantial inflation.

So, give us an update then on the intra freight carrier wars, right? So, we have FedEx freight down more than 4% since it spin-off back in May, partially because Amazon has entered the scene. What's going on with terrain grab? Who's winning? Yeah, I mean ultimately Amazon I mean it's sort of the worstkept secret. Amazon was known to get into it. FedEx spun it off. Uh when it spun off is really a reflection of just uh how I mean it spun off at a very high valuation.

It's cooled off a bit from where it the original uh spin-off was. There's been a little bit of just I think investors have rallied the transports for the last 7 8 months and really just cooling off period a little bit of profit taking and I think everybody's wanting to see the second half and and get confirmation uh that things are continuing to be bullish and we're continue to see things ramp. Uh that is our our uh channel checks uh have shown that there's been a bit of modal shift.

We're seeing freight move off of trucking slightly into intermodal which is by rail simply because there's been uh a lot of movement in freight rates in trucking and so that we're seeing things put onto the railroads and right now the spread between trucking rates and rail freight is 34% that is near an all-time high and therefore the railroads are the primary beneficiaries and companies like JB Hunt and Hub Group that are public are really picking up a lot of share right now.

Wow. Interesting. Finally, Craig, and we don't have much time left, but you have advocated in the past for a domestic marine industry, right? To ensure security and supply chains and so on. Are you hearing anything about the administration potentially taking stakes in any businesses surrounding supply chains, the network, marine industry, trucking industry, or anything like that? Any whisperings at all in the

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