美股创4月来最大周涨幅，市场聚焦通胀与AI分化

THE GOOD NEWS IN THAT IS THAT YOU ARE SEEING THAT BROADENING OUT OF EARNINGS.

WHAT IS HAPPENED WITH THIS AI TRAIT IS THAT WE'VE EXTENDED THE DURATION OF EQUITIES.

THE QUESTION IS NOT CAN YOU GET GOOD EARNINGS, THE QUESTION IS CAN YOU GET THEM PERSISTENTLY? ANNOUNCER: THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE" WITH JONATHAN FERRO, LISA AND ANNMARIE HORDERN. LISA: WALL STREET BULLS FEELING CONFIDENT AFTER THE BIGGEST WEEKLY STOCK RALLY SINCE APRIL DB MORGAN THE LATEST UPGRADE THE YEAR-END FORECAST OF THE S&P 500. THE NEXT TEST RATES COMING WEDNESDAY WITH THE RELEASE OF KEY INFLATION DATA AND OIL PRICES STEADYING.

PRESIDENT TRUMP'S, NEGOTIATING WITH TEHRAN IN THE FACE OF ONGOING THREATS. ANNMARIE: THIS ADMINISTRATION WANTS TO CONTINUE TO USE ECONOMIC POWER. WE DID E.U. THE PRESIDENT ESCALATE ONCE AGAIN BUT JUST SAYING THEY ARE BROKE AND INFLATION IS VERY HIGH FOR IRAN. IN ORDER FOR THERE TO BE A SENSE OF RELIEF, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAS TO OPEN. AND EVEN THOUGH WE ARE CLOSE TO POTENTIALLY HAVING A DEAL, IRAN KEEPS TYING IT TO JUST THINGS THAT THE U.S.

CANNOT AGREE ON. LISA: IT'S STRIKING TO SEE TWO CONSECUTIVE WEEKS OF OIL PRICES COMING DOWN IN TERMS OF TENSIONS. THAT IS REALLY GOING TO FEED INTO THE INFLATION PRINT. A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH THAT IS GOING TO BLEED INTO THE DISINFLATION THAT MIGHT BAILOUT THE STUFF. ANNMARIE: ALL OF THIS IS DEFINITELY HELPFUL FOR THE FED ON WEDNESDAY. THAT IS WHEN THE WEEKLY STARTS, THIS WEEK. IT'S GOING TO BE THE ANCHOR FOR THE WEEK IN TERMS OF EVERYTHING IS GOING TO STEM FROM THIS.

LISA: THERE'S A LOT OF OTHER THINGS OTHER THAN JUST THAT. IF JONATHAN WERE HERE, HE AND I WOULD BE ARGUING. BUT HE'S OFF FOR THE WEEK. THAT IS KIND OF THE KEY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CPI AND THEN PPI. WE DO ALSO HAVE BOND OPTIONS. I KNOW OTHER PEOPLE MIGHT SAY THEY ARE NOT AS INTERESTING, BUT WE DO GET AUCTIONS FROM THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT WHICH WILL BE REALLY IMPORTANT. ANNMARIE: USUALLY MAYBE IT'S NOT AS INTERESTING, BUT I THINK THIS WEEK IS VERY INTERESTING.

YOU SEE THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT POTENTIALLY HAVE TO BORROW MORE SO ON THE SHORT END AND THIS TREASURY SECRETARY WHO IS CONCERNED ABOUT RISING YIELD ON THE LONG END. LISA: SCOTT BESSENT MAKING A POINT TO TALK ABOUT SOME OF HIS EFFORTS OVER THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW WE ARE SEEING IN MARKETS THE SEVENTH OF JUST THIS INCREDIBLE EXUBERANCE. LAST WEEK WE SAW THE BEST WEEKLY GAIN GOING BACK TO APRIL 17. UP MORE THAN 5% FOR THE NASDAQ AS WELL AS THE S&P.

YOU ARE SEEING THE DOLLAR REGAIN JUST A LITTLE BIT NOT JUST VS. THE EURO BUT ALSO VS. THE YEN. WE'LL BE TALKING ABOUT THAT COMING UP AS THE INTERVENTION FROM LAST WEEK MAYBE NOT HAVING AS MUCH HEFT AS SOME PEOPLE WOULD EXPECT. WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IS ACTUALLY MUCH LOWER BENCHMARK YIELDS. 30 YEAR YIELDS DOWN SEVEN BA SIS POINTS. COMING UP, AARON CANNON. COLONEL WAYNE SANDERS OF BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE AS PRESIDENT TRUMP CLAIMS TO BE SEMI-NEGOTIATING WITH IRAN AND SARAH KUNST OF CLEO CAPITAL.

WE BEGIN TO HAVE MORE TECH EARNINGS. INVESTORS ARE BEGINNING TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN COMPANIES EXPOSED TO AI AND THOSE CAPABLE OF LEVERAGING IT TO EXPAND MARGINS AND GENERATE DURABLE FREE CASH FLOW. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING WITH US. LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT SOME OF THE UPGRADES WE SEEN. 8000 FOR YEARS AND, THAT ISN'T EXACTLY SCREAMING CONSIDERING WE ARE ALMOST AT THE YEAR-END TARGET RIGHT NOW. WHAT IS IT ABOUT THE EARNINGS SEASON THAT MAKES PEOPLE RETAIN THEIR BULLISH TILT?

AT THE END THE DAY WE SEE MASSIVE GROWTH. Q1 EARNINGS, AND NOW Q2 EARNINGS. THEY ARE STILL GROWING WELL OVER 30% ANNUALIZED GROWTH RATE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARKET IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS AI REVOLUTION IS VERY ROBUST AND IS GOING TO CONTINUE THAT ON AN ANNUALIZED BASIS AND THAT WE ARE GOING TO START TO PERHAPS SEE A SHIFT IN THE DEMENTED WITH THE EQUITY MARKET, WITHIN THE AI TRADE. THAT IS SOMETHING WE ARE TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT.

WHERE IS THE RETURN ON INVESTED CAPITAL? I THINK THAT IS FOR THE MARKET IS TRYING TO DECIPHER RIGHT NOW. AND A LOT OF THE MOMENTUM IN JULY HAS COME BACK INTO THE MARKET BUT THERE IS SORT OF THE QUESTION WHETHER WE ARE GOING TO START TO SEE MORE DIFFERENTIATION GOING ON. HOW DOES AI IMPACT THE SOFTWARE SECTOR? TWO MONTHS AGO IT WAS CALLED THE SAS-POCALYPSE AND NOW WE ARE THINKING THAT THE POSSIBILITY THAT LLM'S, THE CHEAPER ONES THAT PROVIDED THAT 95% OF THAT WITH THE GREATEST MODELS PROVIDE TODAY, MAY JUST BE ENOUGH TO INFILTRATE THE SOFTWARE COMPANIES AND ADD SIGNIFICANT VALUE.

LISA: FOUR WEEKS AGO WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE BROADENING OUT. SUDDENLY WE ARE BACK TO HYPERSCALERS, CHIPS NAMES. WHERE ARE WE GOING TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN WHO WINS IN THIS ROLLING BALL OF CASH?

MEMORY IS STILL IN EXTRAORDINARILY HIGH-LEVEL DEMAND. WE THINK THAT IS GOING TO CONTINUE INTO 2027, BUT THERE WAS A RUSTED ABOUT MOMENTUM. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE BROADER MARKET, WE ARE AT ESSENTIALLY ALL-TIME HIGHS AS OF FRIDAY. THE EMPLOYMENT PICTURE HAS SOFTENED ON THE MARGIN BUT REMAINS RELATIVELY ROBUST. ONE THING WE HAVEN'T TALKED ABOUT IS WE HAVE RETAIL SALES THIS WEEK. WE HAVE MCDONALD'S EARNINGS THAT SUGGESTED A SOFTENING CONSUMER.

WHAT IS THE COUNTERVAILING FORCE BEYOND THE AI FORCES THAT WE ARE SEEING, WHICH IS A HUGE TAILWIND TOWARD SPENDING? BOTH ENGINEERS AND PEOPLE DOING THE PICKS AND SHOVELS, BUT WHAT ABOUT THE CONSUMER IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE ECONOMY? ANNMARIE: YOU MENTIONED MEMORY SECTOR VOLATILITY. IS THAT A DOMESTIC ISSUE FOR JUST A KOREA ISSUE? AARON: I THINK IT IS A GLOBAL ISSUE. EVEN TO THE CHINESE PRODUCERS THAT APPLE IS TRYING TO BREAK INTO AND BE ABLE TO HAVE THEM SERVE AS A SOURCE OF SUPPLY FOR EVEN THE IPHONES, FOR EXAMPLE.

THIS HAS BEEN ONGOING. EVENTUALLY WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A NORMALIZATION BUT IT IS A CYCLE. IS THIS A 2028 EVENT, A .29 EVENT? MULTIPLES ARE STILL VERY LOW, BUT YOU LOOK AT GROSS MARGINS, THEY ARE OVER 80%. CAN THAT PERSIST INTO 2028, 2029? WE THINK PROBABLY NOT. ONE REASON WE ARE SEEING OPERATING INCOME ACROSS THE BROADER S&P, MARGINS ARE EXPANDING. IF WE START TO SEE GROSS MARGINS IN MEMORY IN 2028, 2029 JUST NORMALIZE FROM 80 TO 70, WE ARE GOING TO START TO PROBABLY SEE MARKET CONTRACTION OR AT LEAST THE PRODUCTIVITY SIDE.

LISA: AND YOU MENTIONED APPLE WANTING TO GET IN ON SOME OF THESE CHINESE PRODUCERS. THOSE MEMORY CHIPS ARE A LOT CHEAPER. AARON: I THINK THERE IS LESS EVIDENCE OF THAT, AND MORE EVIDENCE THAT THERE MAY BE RIGHT NOW, TODAY, DOUBLE ORDERING, TRIPLE ORDERING HAPPENING. WHAT IF WE ARE JUST ORDERING TO MEET DEMAND AND THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WE START TO SEE? COULD THAT SPARK A DECELERATION IN A COMPONENT OF THE AI TRADE? IT COULD BE BRINGING GREAT CHEER TOO MANY ELEMENTS OF THE AI REVOLUTION BEYOND MEMORY, BEYOND THE CHIPS SPACE.

SO WE ARE VERY EXCITED ABOUT THAT BECAUSE WE COULD SEE MARGINS ACTUALLY EXPANDING WITHIN THE SOFTWARE SEGMENT THAT IS AVERAGING YOU POWER. THAT IS VERY EXCITING FOR SOME OF THESE COMPANIES. LISA: WE KEEP ASKING PEOPLE HOW CONTINGENT IS THAT ON THE YIELD SPACE? THAT YIELDS IF THEY ARE GOING UP ARE DOING SO IN A CONTROLLED MANNER. THIS WEEK WE HAVE AUCTIONS AS WELL AS SOME OF THE RETAIL SALES. HOW IMPORTANT IS IT FOR YOU THAN $25 BILLION AND 30 YEAR NOTES BEING SOLD ON THURSDAY GOES WELL?

THAT WE DON'T SEE EVIDENCE OF THIS CROWDING OUT FROM SOME OF THE HYPERSCALE ISSUANCE? AARON: IT'S AN INTERESTING QUESTION. I THINK WE HAVE TO REALIZE THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF NEW TREASURY ISSUANCE IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IN THE FRONT END OF THE CURVE, NOT A LONG END OF THE CURVE. LOOK AT THE FRONT END OF THE CURVE YOU TODAY. THE LONG END OF THE CURVE IS UP ABOUT HALF OF THAT. THE 10 YEAR, SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. I WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED IF I WITH THE TREASURY THAT LONG AND RATES, IF THEY ARE GOING TO THE LEADING INTO TREASURY BILL ISSUANCE, THAT LONG AND RATES CONTINUE TO GO HIGHER.

OBVIOUSLY THAT'S GOING TO BE PREDICATED ON INFLATION DATA THAT WE SEE THIS WEEK, HOW THE FED POSTURES THE QUESTION AROUND AI, IT IS A NEAR INFLATION PRESSURE THE MEDIAN LONG-TERM POTENTIAL DISINFLATIONARY PRESSURE. THAT IS GO

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