伊朗安全改组与中美AI差距成焦点

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NEWSMAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS. THIS IS "THE PULSE WITH FRANCINE LACQUA." FRANCINE: GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME. OIL IS HOLDING ITS RECENT GAINS AS A FINAL DEAL TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ BETWEEN IRAN AND OMAN REMAINS ELUSIVE. TEHRAN WILL NOT DIRECT TALKS WITH THE U.S. AND PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID WASHINGTON IS SEMI- NEGOTIATING AND CAN WAIT FOR IRAN'S ECONOMICS OF FOOTING -- SUFFERING TO SOFTEN ITS STANCE. NEGOTIATIONS WITH WASHINGTON CANNOT YET BEGIN.

AT PRESENT, WE ARE NOT ENGAGED IN ANY NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES. AS LONG AS THE AMERICAN VIOLATION OF THE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING CONTINUES, AND THE U.S. DOES NOT MAKE AMENDS FOR ITS VIOLATIONS, THERE IS NO POSSIBILITY OF RESUMING NEGOTIATIONS. FRANCINE: FOR MORE, WE ARE JOINED BY ABBEER ABU OMAR IN DUBAI. TALK TO US BACK AND FORTH -- TALK US THROUGH THE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN IRAN AND THE U.S. ABEER: JUST ARE THE FOREIGN MINISTER SAYING A RETURN TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE WITH THE U.S.

CANNOT HAPPEN UNLESS THE U.S. ENDS ITS HOSTILITIES. PRESIDENT TRUMP ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND SAYING HE WILL WAIT FOR THE ECONOMIC TOLL TO TAKE ITS WEIGHT ON IRAN, AND THEREFORE, THEY WILL HAVE TO GO BACK TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE. A LOT OF BACK-AND-FORTH BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES. IRAN MAINTAINS THAT WASHINGTON IS NOT PART OF THOSE NEGOTIATIONS TAKING PLACE BETWEEN ITSELF AND THERESA -- OMAN TO RESTART MOVEMENT. WHAT WE REPORTED ON OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO IS THAT THE TWO ARE DISCUSSING A MECHANISM OF SOME SORT TO START OR TO RESTART THE MOVEMENT OF SHIPS AND TANKERS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

THAT REMAINS ELUSIVE. BOTH PARTIES HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF REACHING A FINAL DRAFT. AND WE DON'T YET HAVE THE DETAILS FOR THAT. MEANWHILE, WE ARE MONITORING THE TRAFFIC OR THE LACK THEREOF IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. WE'VE REPORTED MULTIPLE TIMES THAT SHIPS ARE HARDLY MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH. WE'VE REPORTED OVER THE WEEKEND THAT AN AD NOC FLAGSHIP WAS HIT WITH ONE PERSON KILLED AND MULTIPLE OTHERS INJURED. THOSE ARE THE THINGS WE HAVE REPORTED WHEN IT COMES TO THE OVERALL AGREEMENT.

WITHIN IRAN ITSELF AND PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT OUT OF THIS WEEKEND IS SOME RESHUFFLING THAT'S HAPPENED IN THE ECHELONS OF POWER. THE RESHUFFLING OF HEART LINE -- HARD LINERS. ONE OF THEM IS THE NEW POLITICAL ADVISOR TO THE SUPREME LEADER WHO HAS SAID IN ORDER FOR IRAN TO COME BACK TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE, THE U.S. WOULD NEED TO PERMANENTLY END THE WAR, LEFT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE, UN-FREEZE THE BLOCKED ASSETS. SO, A LOT OF CONCESSIONS THAT ARE GOING TO BE A HARD SELL FOR THE UNITED STATES.

A LOT OF BACK-AND-FORTH, A LOT OF COMPLEXITIES IN THE REGION. A WIDENING OF THE PERIMETERS OF THE WAR, BUT FOR NOW, WHAT WE WAIT FOR IS THE FINAL DRAFT BETWEEN IRAN AND OMAN, AND SOME MUCH MOVEMENT IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. FRANCINE: THANK YOU SO MUCH, ABEER. THE VERY LATEST ON THE MIDDLE EAST. GLOBAL STOCKS CONTINUING TO TRADE NEAR RECORD HIGHS. U.S. JOBS DATA EASING CONCERN ABOUT A RATE HIKE BY THE FED. LET'S BRING IN JUSTINA LEE.

HAPPY MONDAY. ONGOING UNCERTAINTY IN THE MIDDLE EAST DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE DAMPENED THE STOCK RALLY. JUSTINA: WE LOOK AT THE CHART AND THE MSCI WORLD INDEX HAS HIT ANOTHER RECORD HIGH. IT JUST FEEL LIKE INVESTORS ARE GENERALLY TAKING A GLASS HALF-FULL APPROACH TO THE CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST, JUST AS THEY ARE WITH U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH. I FEEL LIKE THERE'S A SENSE WE ARE IN THIS GOLDILOCKS ZONE WHERE WE DON'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT A U.S.

RATE HIKE YET BUT AT THE SAME TIME, EVEN WITH THE PAYROLLS NUMBER WE GOT LAST FRIDAY, THEY ARE NOT SO WORRIED THAT PEOPLE ARE WORRIED ABOUT U.S. ECONOMIC MOMENTUM. TODAY, WE GOT THE NEWS THAT J.P. MORGAN HAS RAISED THE S&P 500 YEAR-END TARGET FROM 7000, WHICH THE INDEX HAS ENTIRELY BLOWN PAST TO 8000 ON THE BACK OF A STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED EARNINGS SEASON. WHAT THEY SAY IS PRETTY GOOD MONETIZATION OF AI FROM SOME OF THE HYPERSCALERS.

FRANCINE: IT ALSO SEEMS WE COULD SEE A MAJOR SHIFT UNDERWAY FOR EUROPEAN STOCKS. JUSTINA: THAT'S RIGHT. DON'T TALK ABOUT EUROPEAN STOCKS TOO MUCH. IF WE KIND OF LOOK AT THIS CHART, WE CAN SEE THAT WHILE THE U.S. ECONOMIC MOMENTUM HAS ROLLED OVER A LITTLE BIT LATELY, MORE RECENTLY, THE -- EUROPE'S ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX HAS BEEN ON THE UP AND UP SO YOU CAN SEE PRETTY STRONG FUNDAMENTALS FOR THIS PART OF THE WORLD. IN ADDITION TO THIS, EARNINGS GROWTH HAS BEEN PRETTY SOLID AT 17% THIS RECENT SEASON.

WE CAN SEE THAT THAT IS WHAT EVEN THE SOFT HAS BEEN HITTING THE RECORD HIGHS. AN IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER ABOUT EUROPEAN STOCKS IS THAT THEY TEND TO BE A LOT MORE SENSITIVE TO OIL PRICES. THEY PROBABLY BEEN SUPPORTED RECENTLY BY OIL COMING DOWN FROM THE PEAK IN JULY, BUT IF ANYTHING HAPPENS AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE EAST, THAT WILL DISRUPT THAT. I THINK THAT WILL BE A HEADWIND FOR EUROPEAN EQUITIES. FRANCINE: THANK YOU FOR THE TERRIFIC BRIEFING, JUSTINA LEE.

JOINING US IS JENNIFER MCEWAN, CHIEF GLOBAL ANALYST AT CAPITAL ECONOMICS. THIS A LOT TO TALK ABOUT ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT REPORT ON FRIDAY IN THE U.S.. DOES THAT PUSH BACK ANY EXPECTATIONS FOR INTEREST RATE HIKES IN THE U.S. OR IS IT AN IMMINENT INTEREST RATE HIKE THAT IS PUSHED BACK? JENNIFER: I THINK IT DEFINITELY BRINGS SEPTEMBER INTO MORE DOUBT. WE HAD BEEN SHIFTING TOWARDS A MUCH GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF THE SEPTEMBER HIKE.

BUT THAT FALL IN PAYROLLS DOES STRANGE THINGS A BIT. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE CAME DOWN AT THE SAME TIME, SO IT WAS NOT A ONE-WAY REPORT. IT WAS A BIT MIXED BUT SOFTER THAN EXPECTED. WAGE GROWTH THAT'S 3.2% IS PROBABLY NOT REALLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR THE FED TO BE PUSHING THE HIKES. A LOT DEPENDS ON THE CPI PRINT THAT IS COMING UP. WE HAVE ANOTHER PAYROLLS REPORT BEFORE THE SEPTEMBER MEETING. THERE IS STILL A LOT TO WATCH FOR, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD HAS REDUCED.

FRANCINE: HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE THE AMERICAN ECONOMY RIGHT NOW? THE PARTICIPATION RATE FELL QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY AND NOT SURE WHY. I'M NOT SURE WHETHER IT IS STRUCTURAL FORCES OR ARE WE PRODUCING QUALITY JOBS OR PEOPLE DON'T WANT THEM AND THEN LEAVE THE WORKFORCE? JENNIFER: THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF VOLATILITY AROUND YOUNGER PEOPLE ESPECIALLY IN THE U.S.. THERE ARE HUGE QUESTION MARKS ABOUT WHAT AI IS DOING TO THE LABOR MARKET.

I THINK FUNDAMENTALLY, I WOULD SAY THE U.S. ECONOMY LOOKS SOLID, LOOKS PRETTY HEALTHY. THE JOBLESS COUNT HAS NOT BEEN RISING. IT IS NOT THE CASE THAT THE BOTTOM IS FALLING OUT OF THE LABOR MARKET. ALSO, WE'VE GOT THE STRONG AI STORY STILL WHICH FOR ALL THE DOUBTS ABOUT HOW -- THERE'S A LONG WAY TO GO IN THE MACRO ECONOMY FOR THAT TO CONTINUE BOOSTING U.S. INVESTMENT, WHICH WE ARE SEEING. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, U.S. PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AS WELL.

I THINK THE OUTLOOK IS A PRETTY POSITIVE ONE. FRANCINE: WHAT ABOUT THE REST OF THE WORLD? JENNIFER: IT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE HIT TOO HARD BY THE IRAN CONFLICT AND MACRO ECONOMIC TERMS. FRANCINE: WHICH IS REALLY UNEXPECTED. EVEN A COUPLE MONTHS AGO, I DON'T KNOW IF IT IS INVENTORY BEHAVIOR OR TRYING BEHAVIOR THAT HAS CHANGED THE POSITIONING. JENNIFER: YEAH, BUT I THINK THERE HAS BEEN SOME DRAWDOWN OF INVENTORIES BOTH IN CHINA AND ACROSS THE OECD WHICH HAS HELPED MATTERS.

CONSUMERS SEEM TO BE DIPPING INTO THEIR SAVINGS A BIT IN EUROPE WHICH IS UNUSUAL. I THINK VERY MUCH WELCOME. JUSTINA WAS SAYING WE HAD SOME POSITIVE SURPRISES OUT OF EUROPE RECENTLY. IT HAS BEEN A WHILE SINCE THAT HAPPENED. RETAIL SALES SEEM TO BE HOLDING UP REALLY QUITE WELL. I DON'T KNOW HOW LONG THAT CAN CONTINUE. THERE'S A LOT HINGING ON A DEAL HAPPENING, ON FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ RESUMING. BUT FOR NOW, THE MACRO ECONOMY HAS NOT BEEN HIT HARD.

FRANCINE: DO YOU EXPECT A LOT OF INFLATIONARY PRESSURE, IF THIS LASTS FOR LONGER OR IS THERE SOMETHING IN THE ECONOMY THAT WE SHOULD BE RETHINKING? JENNIFER: I THINK WE'VE GOT MORE INFLATIONARY PRESSURE TO COME IN THE U.K., CERTAINLY WHERE THE IMPACT OF ENERGY PRICES TENDS TO BE RELATIVELY LAGGED. IN EUROPE, WE THOUGHT INFLATION HAD PEAKED. WITH THE OIL PRICES AT $83 PER BARREL-ISH, THAT'S A LOT LOWER THAN IT WAS AT THE HEIGHT OF THE CRISIS.

IT SHOULD BE THE C

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