澳大利亚经济出了什么问题？
What’s Gone Wrong With Australia’s Economy?
For most of the past 50 years or so, Australia's economy has been the envy of much of the Western world. A combination of a reliable commodity-oriented export base and a strong domestic economy allowed Australia to weather basically every major global economic crisis without entering recession, helping it earn the nickname the lucky country. That was until the pandemic. Like everyone else, Australia suffered a recession, its first in over 30 years.
在过去大约50年的大部分时间里，澳大利亚的经济一直令西方世界许多国家羡慕不已。可靠的以大宗商品为导向的出口基础加上强劲的国内经济，使澳大利亚得以安然度过每一次重大全球经济危机而不陷入衰退，这为其赢得了“幸运之国”的绰号。这种情况一直持续到疫情爆发。与其他国家一样，澳大利亚也遭受了衰退，这是其30多年来的首次衰退。
But unlike everyone else, and more pertinently, Australia has since failed to recover. Inflation has proved particularly sticky in the lucky country, and on a per capita basis, GDP has been basically stagnant for the past few years. According to polling by the Lowy Institute, Australians are now more pessimistic about the economy than any time in the past 20 years. So, in this video, we're going to try and figure out what's gone wrong with the Australian economy and explain why the answer might be simpler than you think.
但与其他国家不同，更重要的是，澳大利亚此后未能复苏。在这个幸运之国，通胀被证明特别顽固，而且按人均计算，GDP在过去几年基本停滞不前。根据洛伊研究所的民调，澳大利亚人对经济的悲观程度现在超过了过去20年中的任何时候。因此，在本视频中，我们将尝试找出澳大利亚经济的问题所在，并解释为什么答案可能比你想象的要简单。
This spring, we visited Greenland to discover the country and find out why it's been such a major geopolitical [music] flashpoint. While we were there, we camped on a glacier, trekked through the wild to find abandoned military installations, and explored the melting oceans, all to answer the question, "What's the big deal with [music] Greenland?" The documentary is now streaming exclusively to Theory of Everything Party members.
今年春天，我们访问了格陵兰，去探索这个国家，并找出为什么它会成为如此重要的地缘政治[音乐]热点。在那里，我们在冰川上露营，徒步穿越荒野寻找废弃的军事设施，并探索融化的海洋，所有这些都是为了回答这个问题：“格陵兰到底有什么大不了的？”这部纪录片现在只在“万物理论”派对成员中独家播放。
You can sign up or watch the full trailer by clicking the link in the description. So, the key thing to understand here is that until really quite recently, Australia's economy has looked uniquely resilient. Australia's GDP grew every quarter from 1991 until the pandemic in 2020, the longest consecutive streak in world history. This was in large part because Australia's economy has two things that rarely come together, an abundance of natural resources and a strong domestic economy.
你可以通过点击描述中的链接注册或观看完整预告片。所以，这里要理解的关键是，直到最近，澳大利亚的经济看起来都异常有韧性。从1991年到2020年疫情爆发，澳大利亚的GDP每个季度都在增长，这是世界历史上持续时间最长的连续增长记录。这在很大程度上是因为澳大利亚的经济拥有两种很少同时出现的东西：丰富的自然资源和强劲的国内经济。
When it comes to natural resources, Australia has vast deposits of metals and hydrocarbons, including iron, coal, oil, gold, and lithium, which it exports around the world, especially to booming economies in Asia like China. If you just looked at Australia's export profile, you'd probably assume it was a low or middle-income country dependent on commodity exports, but that's not the case at all. Australia also has an impressive non-commodity economy centered around advanced services, including world-beating education, technology, and financial sectors.
在自然资源方面，澳大利亚拥有大量的金属和碳氢化合物矿藏，包括铁、煤、石油、黄金和锂，这些资源出口到世界各地，尤其是出口到像中国这样蓬勃发展的亚洲经济体。如果你只看澳大利亚的出口结构，你可能会认为它是一个依赖大宗商品出口的低收入或中等收入国家，但事实并非如此。澳大利亚还拥有一个令人印象深刻非大宗商品经济，以先进服务业为中心，包括世界一流的教育、技术和金融部门。
This has only made Australia one of the richest countries in the world with a GDP per capita somewhere between Germany and the Netherlands and incredible levels of collective wealth. According to the most recent UBS Wealth Report, for instance, Australians have the third highest median wealth in the world, behind only Luxembourg and Belgium. Furthermore, this combination of a reliable export base and a relatively strong domestic economy has allowed Australia to weather almost every financial storm.
这仅仅使澳大利亚成为世界上最富有的国家之一，人均GDP介于德国和荷兰之间，集体财富水平令人难以置信。例如，根据最新的瑞银财富报告，澳大利亚人的财富中位数位居世界第三，仅次于卢森堡和比利时。此外，可靠的出口基础与相对强劲的国内经济相结合，使澳大利亚几乎能够抵御每一次金融风暴。
Its strong domestic economy,
其强劲的国内经济，
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力