霍尔木兹海峡协议难产，油价上涨，市场关注美联储路径

SHERY: THIS IS THE ASIAN TRADE. OIL GAINS IS A DEAL TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HIS REMAINS ELUSIVE. PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNALS PATIENTS AS TEHRAN REJECTS DIRECT TALKS WITH THE U.S.. TRADERS DIGEST FRIDAY'S U.S. JOBS DATA. SK HYNIX IS IN FOCUS AS IT RAMPS UP CONSTRUCTION WITH THE POTENTIAL SHARE BUYBACK ON WATCH. APPLE IS REPORTEDLY TESTING CHINESE MEMORY CHIPS ACROSS ITS PRODUCT LINES AS A SUPPLY CRUNCH BITES. HAIDI: TAKE A LOOK AT THE SET UP FOR TRADING.

IT IS GOING TO BE THE DOMINANT IMPACT OF A MISS ON THE U.S. JOBS NUMBERS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FED AND WHETHER IT SHAKES UP THE TIMELINE FOR EXPECTATIONS. WE ARE SEEING MODEST UPSIDE WHEN IT COMES TO TRADING IN U.S. TEXT -- TECH FUTURES AND KOSPI FUTURES, THAT OF UPSIDE IN KOREA. IN JAPAN, DOLLAR-YEN AT 157 POINT 93. EXPECTING A BIT MORE CONTINUATION WHEN IT COMES TO HAVE ALL THE SHORT DOLLAR TRADES HAVE BEEN BUILDING OVER THE PAST COUPLE SESSIONS.

WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE DRAGGING OF THE HEELS ON THE DEAL OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, REMAINING ELUSIVE. BRENT CRUDE LAST TRADED HIGHER 1%, NEW YORK CRUDE UP 0.8%. FOR BRENT UP OVER 5% AND CLEARLY THE RISK EVERY ESCALATION REMAINS HIGH. -- EVERY ESCALATION REMAINS HIGH. SHERY: AROUND IRAN, A FINAL DEAL TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ REMAINS ELUSIVE BETWEEN IRAN AND OMAN. TEHRAN RULED OUT DIRECT TALKS WITH THE U.S. BUT PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS WASHINGTON CAN WAIT FOR IRAN'S SUFFERING TO SOFTEN IT STANDS.

LET'S BRING IN WENDY. WHAT IS THE CALCULATION FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP GIVEN THAT TEHRAN DOESN'T NECESSARILY WANT TO ENGAGE? WENDY: I WOULDN'T WANT TO RISK TRYING TO FIGURE OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S CALCULATIONS BUT TODAY HIS POSITION WAS THAT THAT THE U.S. CAN WAIT. HE CITED HI IRANI AND IN ELATION AND ECONOMIC SUFFERING AND THE ELATION IS AROUND 70% -- INFLATION IS AROUND 70% SO THAT IS HARD ON THE IRANIAN PEOPLE. HE IS SAYING TODAY, AND HE SAID THIS IN A BRIEF PHONE CALL WITH AXIOS SO REPORTERS TRAVELING WITH HIM DIDN'T, HE DIDN'T ENGAGE WITH REPORTERS TRAVELING WITH HIM.

WE HAVEN'T HEARD FROM HIM DIRECTLY BUT HE SUGGESTED IN THE BRIEF INTERVIEW WITH AXIOS THAT HE WILL SIMPLY WAIT FOR IRAN TO GET TO THE POINT WHERE THEY HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO NEGOTIATE WITH THE U.S. IRAN FOR ITS PART SIMPLY SAYS WE ARE FINE. UNTIL YOU GO BACK TO AGREEING TO THE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING THAT WE SIGNED IN JUNE, WE HAVE NO REASON TO TALK TO YOU. AS YOU MENTIONED, THERE IS THOSE IRAN-OMAN TALKS TO OPEN THE STRAIT.

THE FOREIGN MINISTER OF IRAN SAID THEY ARE GETTING CLOSE, BUT WE HAVEN'T GOTTEN THE READOUT FROM ANYONE ON THAT, EITHER. WE WILL SEE WHAT THIS WEEK BRINGS. SHERY: WHAT ARE WE SEEING IN TERMS OF IRAN'S RENEWED CONDITIONS WHEN IT COMES TO ENGAGING WITH THE U.S. HAD WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ? WENDY: WELL, THEIR POSITION IN THE TALKS WITH OMAN WAS THAT THEY WOULD ADMINISTER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND CHARGE TOLLS.

WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE OMANI POSITION IS. THE OMANIS ARE MORE RECEPTIVE OF AN IDEA OF U.S. ESCORTS. IRAN HAS SAID ANY U.S. AND IS REALLY FLAGGED SHIPS WOULD NOT BE PERMITTED TO GO THROUGH THE STRAIT, EXCEPT THERE ARE NOW U.S. AND ISRAELI FLAGGED SHIPS OR U.S. CONSUMERS GET IT THROUGH SHIPS FLAGGED FOR OTHER COUNTRIES. WE DON'T KNOW WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ BEYOND THAT. SHERY: DO WE HAVE ANY IDEA WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH ANOTHER U.S.-BACKED REGIONAL DIPLOMATIC TRACK WHEN IT COMES TO GAZA AND THE CONVERSATIONS WITH ISRAEL?

WENDY: THAT ONE IS A LITTLE MORE CERTAIN. BECAUSE THE ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU SAID NO, I DON'T AGREE TO THIS DEAL AT ALL. THIS WAS A DEAL TRUMP ANNOUNCED THROUGH THE BOARD OF PEACE THAT HE SET UP FOR GAZA, THAT WOULD CALL FOR HAMAS TO DISARM AND ISRAEL TO BACK AWAY FROM THE GAZA STRIP WHERE IT IS STILL OCCUPYING A LARGE PART OF IT. AND THEN THERE WOULD BE PEACE AND A TWO STATE SOLUTION BETWEEN ISRAEL AND PALESTINE.

NONE OF THAT HAS HAPPENED SO FAR. ISRAEL IS STILL CROSSING THE LINE THAT I THINK YOU WERE SHOWING THERE, THE YELLOW LINE. ISRAEL KEEPS CROSSING THAT LINE INTO GAZA TERRITORY. HAMAS HAS NOT DISARMED. NETANYAHU FACES REELECT HIM IN NOT -- REELECTION IN OCTOBER AND SAYS HE REJECTED THE DEAL OUT OF HAND. HE WAS NEVER A PARTY TO THIS DEAL. SO TRUMP IS IN THE POSITION WHERE HE LIKES, AS HE DOES DOMESTICALLY IN THE U.S., TO SIMPLY ANNOUNCE THAT THIS IS HIS POLICY AND THE WEIGHT IS GOING TO BE.

HE DOESN'T CHECK WITH CONGRESS, HE DOESN'T DO A LOT OF BOWLING OR ANYTHING. BUT HE IS TRYING TO DO THAT INTERNATIONALLY AND OTHER SOVEREIGN NATIONS ARE PUSHING BACK. HAIDI: WENDY, THANK YOU, AS WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MIDDLE EAST. IN THE MEANTIME WALL STREET TRADERS ARE DIGESTING SIGNS THE U.S. TREASURY IS EAGER TO KEEP BOND YIELDS FROM SPIKING AS SUPPLY SHOCKS MAKE STICKY INFLATION HARDER TO MISS. LET'S TALK ABOUT THAT, DIGESTING A MISS WITH PAYROLLS.

YOU THINK THIS CHANGES THE PATH I HAVE FOR THE FED?

ABSOLUTE. IT PUTS AN INTERESTING DYNAMIC AHEAD OF THE CPI DATA MIDWEEK. YOU JOBS DATA HAS HAD 34,000 JOB GROWTH OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS IN THE U.S., WHICH IS BELOW THE TREND THE FED WOULD LIKE TO SEE. SO IT KEEPS THE FED ON WATCH. AND OBVIOUSLY, MARKETS REACTED POSITIVELY TO THAT WITH GOLD IN PARTICULAR RALLYING ON FRIDAY, ANTICIPATING POSSIBLY THAT THE FED IS WAITING FOR CPI DATA AND WE CAN ASSESS THE NEXT MOVES. THE OTHER CORE PART OF CPI WE WILL WATCH IS THE SHORTER INFLATION THE FED HAS MADE NOISE ABOUT OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS.

THAT REMAINS IN CHECK. HAIDI: THE INFLATION PICTURE IS COMPLICATED BY THE FACT THAT WE DON'T HAVE A CLEAR SEE YOU AS TO WHAT HAPPENS WITH ENERGY LOWS WITH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. ARE INVESTORS PAYING MUCH ATTENTION TO THAT, EQUITY INVESTORS? SUNNY: GOOD QUESTION. THERE WAS A LOT OF FOCUS WHEN THIS CONFLICT FIRST AROSE, NOT KNOWING WHAT IT REALLY MEANT, HOW TIGHT MARKETS WILL BE. THE ENERGY MARKETS TO SOME LEVEL ARE ANTICIPATING THAT EVENTUALLY SOME DEAL WILL BE STRUCK.

ACTION THIS MORNING WITH OIL UP ABOUT 1%, THAT DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN THIS IS A VERY, THAT THEY ARE FEARING THE OUTCOME. THEY THINK I DEAL WILL BE ON THE TABLE AND THEY ARE TRYING TO LOOK THROUGH THE TENSION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND OTHER MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS AND OBVIOUSLY EARNINGS OUT OF WALL STREET. HAIDI: WE HAD INFLATION NUMBERS OUT OF CHINA THAT CLEARLY SHOW THE BROADER ECONOMY OUTSIDE TECH IS LACKING THESE DEMAND CATALYSTS.

TECH IS CLEARLY THE FOCUS HERE. WHAT SHOULD WE BE PREPARING FOR IN TERMS OF HOW FAR BEIJING IS WILLING TO GO TO SUPPORT THESE AI CHAMPIONS? SUNNY: OBVIOUSLY CHINA HAS TAKEN A DIFFERENT APPROACH TO THE STOCK MARKET, THE CAPITAL MARKETS THIS YEAR. MANY CHINESE AI LEADERS ARE LISTING. THERE WILL BE MORE. THEY WILL HAVE A ROBOTICS COMPANY, UNIT THREE IS ALSO LISTING SO CHINA IS TAKING A POSITIVE VIEW THAT THEY WANT THE CAPITAL MARKETS TO SUPPORT THE GROWTH IN THE AI AND THIS IS A NEW ERA OF CHINA TECH.

WE HAVE GONE FROM CHINA SOLAR, WIND, BATTERY, WHEREVER CHINA ENTERS ESSENTIALLY DRIVES PROFITS IN THAT INDUSTRY TO ZERO. AND NOW WE HAVE CHINA AI TECH AND THAT WORRIES SOME OF THE LEADING FRONTIER LABS IN THE U.S. AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE A TWO TYPE OF MARKET AT THE HIGH-END TOKENS AND IN THE MEDIUM AND LOW AND BUT NOTWITHSTANDING, THIS IS AN IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENT FOR GLOBAL AI AS CHINA MOVES ITS MODELS INTO THE WORLD.

MOST OF THE USAGE OF TOKENS IS IN CHINESE MODELS. HAIDI: SUNNY, THANK YOU. WESTPAC'S ECONOMIST JOINS US WITH A MACRO OUTLOOK FOR ASIA. WHAT SHE EXPECTS FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪

WE ARE IN A ZERO WORKFORCE GROWTH ENVIRONMENT IN THE 02 MODEST POSITIVE JOBS GROWTH ENVIRONMENT. THAT DOESN'T FEEL GOOD BUT THAT IS WHERE WE ARE. IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN MY MIND OVER THE LAST YEAR, YEAR AND A HALF.

WHEN THEY SUMMARIZE THIS YEARS FROM NOW YOU WILL WITNESS SOMETHING, PEOPLE WILL SAY IT IS AI KICKING IN BUT I THINK IT IS BEING AN ETHOS AROUND COMPANIES GROWING THEIR BUSINESS AND SEEING HOW YOU CAN OPERATE WITHOUT THAT MUCH OF OINTMENT.

WE HAVE A K-SHAPED ECONOMY AND THAT IS NOT GOOD FOR PEOPLE SELLING TO THE BROAD MASS OF CONSUMERS. BUT IT'S VERY G

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