哈萨比斯：AGI 或在 2030 年前后到来，社会需提前准备
Demis Hassabis:
Demis Hassabis:
德米斯·哈萨比斯：
"Society needs to hear that because we don't have long to prepare for what that means. We are standing in the foothills of the singularity now.
“社会需要听到这些，因为我们没有太多时间准备应对那意味着什么。我们现在正站在奇点的山脚下。
..which is AGI. I believe that we are only a few years away from that, maybe around 2030, plus or minus a year. "
……那就是AGI。我相信我们距离那只有几年时间，可能大约在2030年，前后误差一年。”
~ Demis Hassabis, Co-Founder and CEO of Google DeepMind
~ 德米斯·哈萨比斯，Google DeepMind联合创始人兼首席执行官
It is going to be enormously profound, I think. The future, in my view, is still to be written. But these next few years are going to be very critical as to which way that will go, and how we collectively want that to look.”
我认为这将是极其深远的。在我看来，未来仍待书写。但接下来的几年对于它将走向何方，以及我们集体希望它呈现何种面貌，将是至关重要的。”
I think the real disruption is not the precise arrival of AGI in 2030, give or take a year, but the ability of institutions to adapt. In a post-AGI world technology will evolve at a pace that outstrips the response capacity of human systems.
我认为真正的颠覆不在于2030年AGI是否准时到来，前后误差一年，而在于机构适应变化的能力。在后AGI世界中，技术将以超越人类系统响应能力的速度发展。
Companies still organize work around human bottlenecks. Schools still train people for stable professions. Governments still regulate after the harm is obvious.
公司仍然围绕人类瓶颈组织工作。学校仍然为稳定的职业培养人才。政府仍然在危害显而易见之后才进行监管。
If AGI arrives even remotely near the frontier-lab timelines, it will compress that lag into a dangerous gap.
如果AGI哪怕接近前沿实验室的时间表到来，它将会把这种滞后压缩成一个危险的鸿沟。
From "Stanford Graduate School of Business" YouTube channel, (link in comment)
来自“斯坦福商学院”YouTube频道（链接在评论中）
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