美国弹药库存承压，伊朗战略复杂化

But I think I'm gonna start with we have all this talk of talk, right, these negotiations, but it's very unclear if The US is even involved in these at this point. It seems like this is being worked out between Oman and Iran, and it does also seem like there is going to be some sort of tolling structure, fee structure, exactly what The US said it didn't want and and wouldn't happen when we started this conflict. Well, that's right, Christina.

I I think that's the key point to make this week as we talk of talks, as you say. I mean, the the talks this week were not about The US in any sort of mediating position with Iran. It was more about, as you say, the Iran Oman talks, which have always been about how do we manage the Strait Of Hormuz. Long term interest even before this conflict for Iran to sort of solidify its control over the Strait. It's been an economic concern for decades for them to just ensure that they can secure that as an asset.

So the talks this week apparently moved a little further if if you're reading from Iran's state media, which, you know, you have to take with a grain of salt just like any, media these days or or or trans, you know, translation of of what the regime is thinking. But we do we do have, you know, signals that they have come to some sort of agreement on how to toll the straits, which, of course, as you mentioned, is not in the interest of The US and not what The US was seeking or declaring that would come out of this.

So there's still no sign. You know, Trump did say this week that he was involved in the negotiations, but he didn't elaborate on who might be talking or how that involvement might play out. We do know that there's no formal talks right now, of course, between The US and Iran. And even the mediaries, you know, Qatar and and Pakistan have been fairly quiet about any sort of progress there. So we are in sort of even a more limbo period than we were before in terms of what is the diplomatic way ahead, and does it threaten to return us to a sort of kinetic, situation.

And it's a familiar split screen once again. So we have the the president talking about the prospects of a deal, his desire, I guess, to get both The US and Iran back to a negotiating table eventually. And all the while, on the other side of the screen, is president with his bellicose rhetoric about how long he'll be willing to be patient till that happens and then what might happen were he not to be. Playing out kind of in the backdrop to all of this is the concern about The US's weapons supply, and we certainly saw in Ukraine this week, Ukraine's president That's right.

Saying, you know, effectively their their missile defense is is greatly handicapped by the fact that there aren't enough patriots left. And there was all of this reporting from the likes of of NBC News, other outlets reporting on the fact that that that stockpile of munitions been greatly reduced because of the conflict in in Iran. So, president unhappy about that. We saw him, tweeting out, posting on truth social earlier this week.

The US has massive amounts of munitions, especially of certain types. Additionally, large amounts are being manufactured and shipped to The US as needed. Defense companies are building the largest number of plants and factories in our country's history. The leakers, he writes, of these treasonous statements are being hunted down. Long term jail sentences will be sought. Let's look beyond that rhetoric if we could, Michelle, here.

What do we know about the integrity of the munition stockpile, the degree to which that is shaping the president's thinking about whether or not to go back to a more a more intensive sort of military fight against Iran? Well, David, I think we can start with, what would be normal in any administration and any any Pentagon structure is, you know, you don't want your leadership revealing what exactly the levels of munitions are, obvious obviously, for operational security purposes.

From a political standpoint, yeah, you have Trump, you know, denying that there's any problem here. He sees it as a leverage issue, of course. So, you know, to say that we're running low on munitions would be giving and handing something to Iran that they think they already have, which is, an understanding that The US is vulnerable that can't The US cannot, you know, keep up these massive strikes with very expensive missile defense equipment that's fighting very, you know, small drones that are are pesky at this point, you know, in some ways, in a in a very asymmetric warfare game.

So that is a problem that would be long standing, but I think what we have here this week is, of course, the the sort of Trump bellicose rhetoric, the bravado that he brings to, every situation, every issue that he he tries to project his his own opinions on, is kind of cutting up against the reality that, you know, his his advisers are telling him that there is, you know, a real problem here, and it's becoming more obvious.

And one thing I think you can look at, which I really appreciated, our our reporter Tony Capasio had a good scoop last week looking at what has the administration asked congress for in emergency funding to replenish those stockpiles. So that gives you some idea to kind of back your way into, what we're running low on or what might need to be replenished, to to prepare for maybe what's ahead on Iran, but also other conflicts.

And as you mentioned, this is kind of, know, running into in a very complicated way, other conflicts like Ukraine, where we're seeing, you know, as you mentioned, the shortage of of patriot interceptors there. And and so there's this sort of kind of global competition right now, you know, in some ways to kind of figure out how can we get these things produced faster. And and the president has said that he is, you know, urged and and the defense primes are responding to that faster production call.

Always follow the money. It's always a good reporting tool. How much faster can they do this? We have the chief of naval operations, here, and it seems like and our colleague just interviewed the the army secretary, and we've all asked this question. They are reticent to answer it directly because it is such a politically charged, issue with the president. But there at some point, to your point, it is becoming more and more obvious.

It is the reality that this is going to become a problem, and the lead time for a lot of these patriots and bigger munitions is, like, five years. So, aspirationally, the admiral was talking about even trying to get that cut down to half. What is the plan in the meantime? What are the options? And is this why you're hearing leaks and rumblings that folks in the Pentagon are trying to find off ramps to this conflict? Because in the meantime, there just aren't that many options.

Yeah. Well, two things. I mean, Christina, again, we can look at what happened, what the situation was before the war, and then now that it's exacerbated with, the strains from the war. So before the war and even decades back, we you always have this debate about can the five defense primes, the biggest defense contractors to the government, can they move faster? Can they be more efficient? Can they do more to make sure that they don't have cost overruns and that they just move on a timeline that works for the US military and for The US taxpayer?

And that's always the pressure point between government and business on that front. So those are long standing debates. The the Trump the second Trump term, you know, even dating back to its beginning a year and a half ago, was talking about getting the defense primes and defense procurement in general to move faster, to be more nimble, to draw on more startups, to to get more next gen tech, and to just be less clumsy in some ways, than they have been.

And and, you know, you can imagine how those debates go with those, executives who have been to the White House a few times