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Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. [music] This is Bloomberg Daybreak weekend. Our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, we look ahead to some key inflation data in the US and how they may affect Fed policy moving forward. [music] I'm Nathan Hager in Washington.

I'm Caroline Hepka in London where we're examining the [music] extent of Europe's energy crisis with earnings in focus.

I'm Doug Krer looking ahead to next week's rate decision [music] from the Reserve Bank of Australia. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 991 Washington DC, Bloomberg 929 Boston, DAB Digital Radio London, SiriusXM121, and around the world on Bloombergradio.com and the Bloomberg Business App. [music] Good day to you. I'm Nathan Hager. We begin today's program with some key inflation data in the US.

The consumer price index for July comes out Wednesday, followed by producer prices on Thursday, plus a read on how consumers may be dealing with higher prices when we get retail sales for the month of July on Friday. For more on what we can expect from all this data, uh we are joined by Bloomberg News senior strategist Edward Harrison, of course, the author of the Everything Risk Newsletter. Great to see you on the weekend, Ed.

Thanks for coming in. So uh what's the risk that price pressures pick up in July?

That is a good question. I think the risk that they pick up uh is not what's currently discounted by the market. The market is thinking that we had inflation of 2.6% uh and that inflation will fall to 2.5% going forward. This is the core number that I'm talking about. Now uh the the broader number is going to be above 3% but the Federal Reserve generally looks at the core number because that gives them a sense of where the overall trend is is going.

So where do we see uh price pressures continuing right now? And are we still on the disinflationary track even if we don't see changes to Fed policy? I would say that we're not on the disinflationary track and that is the problem for the Federal Reserve that we've stopped disinflating that is inflation is not going down further. It's and and potentially it's rising more and part of the reason is is because when you look at numbers like services I think a lot of people look at something called super core services both for the number that's used uh for personal income and and expenditures that's the PCE number and then this number that we're going to see this week later on both of those numbers those those super core numbers are higher than the baseline number what it says is that even if you look at core, you're not looking at a number that is reflective of some of the percolating inflationary symptoms that are in the economy.

So, what's keeping those uh services numbers higher and is there anything that Fed policy can do to bring them back down? Are you saying that there is a risk that we could start to see the Fed think about invoking policy to get some of those prices back to where they want them? Yeah, we we definitely could. I think we're seeing definitely financial services is part of that. Uh health care is another part of that. Generally speaking, what we're seeing is if super core services is well above 3% 3.8% actually using the the PCE version that says that at its core numbers that geopolitical risk has nothing to do with are high and therefore the the Fed might have to go against that.

We saw last week, however, on Friday that when the jobs numbers came out, they were relatively poor. Uh that is the non-farm payroll number was down. The unemployment number was lower, which is good, but it was just enough to make people think the Fed will not raise interest rates at its next meeting, nor is it completely priced in for the meeting after that either. As you mentioned with those uh jobs numbers, it does seem as though the market is giving the Fed a little bit of breathing room uh when it comes to policy.

Uh but if we see a pretty elevated inflation number, does that change the forecast? I mean, is there a possibility that we could see those numbers uh come in a little bit hotter? Definitely, we could see that. And one of the things that's behind that is Kevin Wars is the new Federal Reserve chairman and he's been saying, "We don't want you to look at what we're doing and what you think we're going to do. We want you to look at the numbers and come up to with your own thinking about that."

And what that ultimately means is every single time that we get a data print, the market will be more volatile in terms of reacting to that specific number than it it was in the past because we're getting less information from the Federal Reserve about what they're going to do. the less forward guidance from the Federal Reserve. So if that number comes in hot as you say Nathan then I think that the markets will react negatively.

Now of course we saw uh some reporting this past week that uh the chairman is keeping open the possibility of hiking interest rates if inflation prints do come in too hot after the uh relative lack of guidance that we got at the last Fed meeting. Is there a chance that we could see the Fed lean toward a hike just to to get back some of that market credibility?

Well, potentially. However, the jobs number that we saw last week took a lot of the impetus out of that move because now the market's not even pricing it. If the market's not pricing it, then the Fed may not do it as a result of that. It's hard to say because we're in a new regime now. But if the Fed does not raise interest rates in September, then suddenly you're in a situation where October, which is right before an election, is the potentially the first time that you're going to raise interest rates.

So legitimately, September is probably a better uh time just from a purely practical stance given that Donald Trump is a vocal Fed critic, but it's it's hard to say how the Fed is thinking about that.

I really appreciate this, Ed. Again, thanks so much for coming on with us on the weekend. That is Edward Harrison, senior strategist for Bloomberg News and the author of the Everything Risk Newsletter. Let's take a look now at some stocks making news in the week ahead. I'm Nathan Hager joined by Bloomberg News reporter Judy Lru. And the earnings story continues well right away on Monday when we hear from him and hers after the closing bell.

I mean, it feels like healthcare earnings have been going pretty good so far this season. Does that include

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