美国国会休会临近，加密清晰法案推进受阻

There are precious few working days left before the Senate walks out of Washington for recess on the 7th of August and the Clarity Act is very noticeably not on the floor schedule. What is on the schedule? The Graham sanctioning Russia Act and a package of 74 nominations. So,

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the most important piece of crypto legislation ever was pushed down the queue and the market has been aggressively adjusting odds to account for that. As I make this video, Polymarket has 2026 passage [music] at around 32%. Some other trackers put it closer to 40% but Galaxy's Alex Thorn has cut his estimate to 30%. A big collapse in confidence for a bill that was trading above 80% in [music] February. Now, although there's still plenty of contention around the bill itself, the biggest problem facing the Clarity Act right now is simply that it's running out of time.

But, it would appear that even in this tight spot, there's still some reason for optimism. The SEC has taken notice of the messy process the Clarity Act is facing and they're already writing the rules that Congress didn't. So, today we're going to walk through exactly what's left on the calendar, why the ethics negotiation blew up in everyone's face, and why there may be a plan B to all of this. My name is Guy and this is the Coin Bureau.

Right, let's start with what actually happened to this all-important crypto bill over the last couple of days. The Clarity Act simply lost its slot on the schedule. There was no dramatic floor showdown, it just got pushed down the priority list. Senate leaders may have enough support to start debating it but they don't have enough votes to approve it. Remember that Republicans hold 53 seats while starting debate requires 60 votes.

That means they still need support from at least seven Democrats. Nevertheless, White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt was still optimistic on the 28th of July saying he quote would not count out the first week of August. But, optimism just isn't enough because floor time is now the binding constraint on this thing. So, let's take a quick look at the calendar to get a better idea of where things actually stand. Final votes before recess are expected on Friday the 7th of August and recess itself begins on Saturday the 8th.

That's eight working days left as I make this video and much of that is already spoken for by Russia sanctions and a nominations package. So, clarity is simply stuck in an administrative backlog. Now, there is one wild card worth flagging at this point which is that Trump is publicly pressuring Senate Majority Leader John Thune to cancel the August recess entirely over the Save America Act. If that happens, the window does widen.

But, just bear in mind that this would widen the window for Trump's bill first and everything else queues behind it again. Then, the Senate comes back in mid-September after Labor Day and it then has three to four weeks before adjournment in early October so members can go and campaign full-time for the midterms in November. So, for a quick recap on the timeline we're working with here, five days next week before recess, maybe 15 in September, and after that it's a new Congress entirely and this bill could conceivably start all over again from the beginning.

And this brings us to the big blocker that's been plaguing the Clarity Act recently. The 22nd of July draft ran to 616 pages and section 604 was supposed to be the thing that got us moving. On paper, it's tough. It bans the president, the vice president, members of Congress, and senior appointees from issuing, sponsoring, or promoting commercial digital assets for compensation while they're in office. They'll have 1 year to divest or move holdings into a qualified blind trust, and enforcement is to be handed to the Department of Justice.

Now, that is a serious provision, but it still causes friction due to a single paragraph. Because the text also says nothing in that section prohibits holding a digital asset as an investment or earning passive licensing and royalty income from tokens that already exist. Keep that specific carve-out in mind. Now, put it next to President Trump's annual fiscal disclosure released by the Office of Government Ethics on the 30th of June. $1.4 billion in crypto income for 2025.

Roughly 635 million of that in royalties from the Trump token alone, and somewhere between 500 and 590 million tied to World Liberty Financial. These are tokens that already exist, earning licensing and royalty income. So, you can see the problem. And Elizabeth Warren certainly could, because on the 23rd of July, she said the bill, quote, "Does nothing to prevent him from vacuuming up his next $1.4 billion in crypto profits," adding that it should be dead on arrival.

But, although Warren is a very prominent voice, particularly where crypto's concerned, she was never the vote that mattered. The truly important votes belong to Democrats such as Angela Alsobrooks and Ruben Gallego, who helped advance the bill out of the Banking Committee back in May. But now, both are rejecting the latest text, as and they were joined by Senators Booker, Cortez Masto, Hickenlooper, Warner, and Warnock in a 22nd of July statement arguing that enforcement should not sit solely with the DOJ and should also include state attorneys general.

At the same time, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer rallied that group around concerns over corruption. So, there's plenty still to stall Clarity's progress. Now, as you're likely aware, keeping track of all this while also anticipating market reactions to it is basically a full-time job, and most of you probably have actual jobs. So, we made it easier for you because right here on YouTube, you can join the Coin Bureau Club Light plan for $10 a month.

You get daily market updates across crypto and traditional finance, our team's read on the details that matter most, and none of the noise. So, just tap the join button below this video. Okay. Back to Washington now, because although Congress is stalling while the clock ticks away, regulators are now in motion building the alternative. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has been doing media rounds, and he's not mincing his words.

His position, in substance, is that the agency is ready, willing, and able to write rules covering the same ground as Clarity. However, he also notes that only a statute can future-proof anything. And as it happens, this is already in progress. The SEC's Project Crypto is live. Staff guidance from the 28th of January carved staking, validation, mining, and airdrops out of securities treatment entirely. There's also an innovation exemption sandbox and updated custody rules targeted for the second half of this year.

What's more, Michael Selig, now chairs the CFTC, confirmed last December after coming straight from the SEC's crypto task force. So, the two agencies are aligned in a way they simply weren't 12 months ago. And back on the 17th of March, they published a joint 68-page interpretive release classifying 16 tokens as digital commodities, XRP, ETH, SOL, and LINK among them. So, problem solved, right? No need to stress over the Clarity Act at all.

Well, not quite. Because every single piece of that is an interpretation. Agency rules can be undone by the next agency with a different chair and under a different president. They're also exposed to administrative procedure act challenges in court. And after the Loper Bright versus Raimondo case in the Supreme Court back in 2024, judges no longer have to accept a regulated interpretation of an unclear law, making each interpretation vulnerable to an expensive legal challenge.

Clarity was going to codify the CFTC's authority over spot digital commodities. Without it, that authority stays interpretive. The rules can arrive without Congress, but by arriving via that path, they would carry an expiry date. And that's why the market has been repricing things. On the 23rd of July, we saw over $600 million in lo

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