塞勒停买比特币后市场照涨，策略公司转向财务运营

On June 22nd, Michael Sailor bought 520 Bitcoin and then he stopped 5 weeks with no buys. The longest pause since this whole strategy began back in 2020. And 6 days after that final purchase, Bitcoin bottomed under 59K while strategy was selling 3,588 coins straight into the low. The biggest corporate buyer this market has ever seen walked away and even began to sell some coins. And then Bitcoin rallied anyway. For 2 years, the loudest argument against Bitcoin was that if you take away Sailor, the bid for Bitcoin disappears.

And if he were to ever sell, well, Bitcoin would be over for good. Well, that argument just got tested by the market and it failed. So today we're looking at why Sailor stopped, what he's buying instead of Bitcoin, and why the relationship between Bitcoin and strategy is changing. My name is Louis and this is the Coin Bureau. Now to get a clear picture on the discussion today, we have to remember what strategy actually represents in the Bitcoin market.

For 6 years, this company had exactly one setting. Issue paper and then buy Bitcoin. convertible notes, common stock, four different flavors of preferred, all of it funneling into the number one crypto asset. The result is a balance sheet holding $843,000 Bitcoin at an aggregate cost of about $63 billion. That's an average price of around $75,000 a coin. And Bitcoin, at least as I record this, is sitting well below that in the 60ks.

So, the largest corporate Bitcoin position on Earth is currently underwater by quite a bit. Now, that alone wouldn't stop Sailor. Being underwater has actually never stopped Sailor. What stopped him was the structure of Strategy's operation. On June 29th, Strategy filed an 8K announcing what it calls the digital credit capital framework. And when all is said and done, what that amounts to is a total reversal of company policy.

Four things came out of that filing. First is a formal USD reserve policy, a minimum cash floor equal to 12 months of preferred dividends and debt interest. Second, a Bitcoin monetization program authorizing the company to sell coins capped at $1.25 billion. Third, $2 billion of buyback authority, 1 billion for its own preferred securities and 1 billion for its own common stock. And fourth, a dividend hike on its STRC preferred up to 12% a year.

And so it became clear that strategy had matured into a treasury department. CFO Andrew Kang put it in three words that would have been hearsay just 12 months ago. Bitcoin is capital. That means treating it as capital. Something you deploy when the return on deploying it beats the return on holding it. But from there, the story of strategy took another turn because the flywheel that strategy became known for during the upside of Bitcoin's most recent bull market started spinning the other way.

Between July 20th and July 26, Strategy sold 5,429,160 of its own shares through its at the market program and raised $544 million, half a billion of fresh equity. And how much Bitcoin did Strategy buy with that money? Well, zero. And that wasn't the only raise. An earlier July window brought in another $466 million, also with no coins attached. So, Strategy is still issuing paper. It's just that the paper now feeds the credit stack instead of the coin stack.

And what did they do with it? Well, in that same window, July 20th to the 26th, Strategy bought back 288,930 shares of its own STRC Preferred for $25 million, average price around $86.50. Against a par value of $100. CEO Fong Lee asserted that below $100 a share, repurchases reduce future dividend obligations at a discount, which is in fairness good capital allocation on the face of it. But it's just that it's the exact opposite of everything this company has ever told you about the value of holding Bitcoin over holding dollars.

And there's $975 million of that authorization still unused. Meanwhile, there's the cash pile. On June 28th, Strategy held $2.55 billion in USD. By late July, that number was 3.75 billion, an all-time high, $3.75 billion in dollars, sitting in the treasury of a company whose public identity is that dollars are essentially melting ice cubes in this fiat currency world of ours. That $3.75 billion is roughly 2.1 years of coverage on its preferred dividends and debt interest.

So the accumulation flywheel turned into more of a deleveraging flywheel. Now if you remove the largest most price insensitive buyer from any market, the price should fall, right? But that's not what we saw with strategy in Bitcoin. So let's just walk through it to see exactly how the market reacted to strategy shift. June 22nd, that was the last purchase. June 27th to the 28th, the market bottoms with Bitcoin printing a year-to-date low close to 58K and closing June 30th at $58,500.

June 29th to July 5th. Strategy net sells 3,588 coins for about $216 million. The largest holder in the world is a net seller at the lows into the worst ETF month in the products history. And yet by July 21st, Bitcoin had rallied back to around $66,000. That's nearly a 14% move off the bottom with the biggest buyer absent and briefly on the wrong side of the book. So then what took the other side? Well, we could start with the ETFs, although that market did look ugly for a bit.

Starting with that ugliness, US spot Bitcoin ETFs bled somewhere close to $4.5 billion in June. That smashed the previous record of 3.56 billion from February 2025. Black Rockck's IBIT alone accounted for roughly $3 billion of it. And just quickly, it's worth understanding how these products actually work in this context. When shares get redeemed, authorized participants have to sell actual spot bitcoin to settle it.

It's programmatic selling that doesn't care what you think about the having. Some analysts have estimated that every billion dollars pulled out of these products dragged the spot price down by several percent. So, these outflows were outright bearish. But after those outflows had run their course, things turned. A 10-day, $2.73 billion redemption run snapped back on July 2nd. And between July 14th and July 23rd, the complex pulled in about $981 million across seven sessions.

IBIT taking roughly 71% of it. So, the ETF bid finally showed up and it was met with other eager market buyers. On July 2nd, the same week Strategy was selling, Japan's Metlanets bought 2,823 Bitcoin for $170 million, taking its stack to around 43,000 coins. One Treasury company selling into the low, while another buys that same exact week. And the onchain data tells a similar story. Glass node figures reported by CoinDesk showed long-term holders flipping from net distribution to net accumulation in early July with smaller and midsized wallets doing the buying.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hogan argued those holders provided the liquidity that absorbed the ETF redemptions. Cryptoquants Kiongj described it as a handoff. Old whales selling ETFs and treasuries catching. And Hogan's verdict on strategy itself was interesting. Their run as the most dominant buyers of Bitcoin, in his words, is likely finished. He thinks institutions broadly fill that gap. So, the marginal buyer went from one man with a convertible bond desk to something distributed and considerably harder to short.

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Now before we all get carried away, there is something else that deserves mentioning. The real bear case here comes from everyone who copied Sailor. July saw a wave of smaller digital asset treasury companies liquidating. Satsuma Tech

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