标普500再创新高，历史中期年走势暗示9月或现回调

Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the equity verse. Today we're going to talk about the S&P 500 as it has once again made new all-time highs. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and check out the sale on ITC Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. As a reminder, we do have the conference in Miami coming up in just a few months now. So, make sure you guys uh get your ticket.

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So the S&P is now at 7750. So, this is still very much in line with how a lot of these midterm years play out. In fact, one of the things that we've talked about a lot is how we would likely see new all-time highs by the S&P going into sort of the August time frame that even could extend into September. And so, what we what we should realize is how has it played out in prior midterm years? When did we actually start to see corrections?

Now, as a reminder, and I say this basically in every video I do on stocks, I buy index funds essentially monthly, and I don't concern myself too much with exactly where we are because it's really hard to time the market. Even though, you know, a lot of these corrections were during periods of weakness, they should in generally in general be used to figure out when to buy rather than when to sell in my opinion. But in this case, I want to talk about kind of where we are right now and are things aligning in the same way they have in prior midterm years.

So, right now it's August 4th. The S&P is making new all-time highs. Once again, that is sort of the the base case that the stock market is is it heading to new all-time highs. But let's go take a look at when we got these corrections in prior midterm years and see, you know, if it if it might line up once again. So, if you go back to 2014, for instance, you'll see that the S&P got a correction um in in about what September.

It started September about midepptember of 2014. It was about a 10% drop about a 10% drop. Now, if you look at the day in which the top occurred, right, if we want to really nail down the day, and again, we shouldn't expect it to happen on the same day either way, but it started on September 19th. September 19th. In 2018, when did the correction start? It started in September, but in this case, September 21st with a lower high on October 3rd.

But it started technically September 21st. So you have September 21st in 2018. And in 2014, if you go look at um uh 2014, you have September 19th. So mid to late September, right? So you have September 19th, September 21st. Now in 2022, it was different. In 2022, we were actually in a bare market and the top ended up occurring on August 16th, right? You can see that. And then we had a lower high on September 12th and then we ended up bottoming out in in about mid October.

So that in that case it was actually mid August. So August 16th. So you have three midterm years. Right? You have three midterm years. And in all three cases, the stock market had about a 10 to 20% drop. Right? In 2014, it was 10%, in 2018, it was 20%. And in 2022, it was in fact around 20%. So, where we are right now, the S&P is putting in new highs. Okay. Well, the only time it wasn't really putting in new highs at this point in the midterm year was in the 2022 bare market when it was going up, but it wasn't putting in new highs because we were actually in a bare market, right?

Whereas the S&P in 2026 has been in a bull market. In 2018, you can see the S&P was pushing to new highs throughout all of August and even going into September. If you look at 2014 again, you can see that it was pushing to new all-time highs uh in in August and September. So, what you're seeing happen right now in the stock market is is actually really similar to what we've seen previously happen in the stock market in midterm years.

And this is why when we talked about this phase up here, right? When we looked at this phase up here, we said that we could very easily see new highs before the correction occurs. And the reason we said that is because the correction normally doesn't start until August or September. If we were already in the correction in late July, then the high would have actually been in early June, that would have been very different than what we've actually seen in prior midterm years in recent history.

So, my argument here is that the S&P again is breaking out. um could stay bullish for a number of weeks, but that come later August or even more likely September, I think the tides could shift. Now, what is interesting about 2014 and 2018 is that the correction started on September 19th and September 21st. Coincidentally, or maybe not coincidentally, the next Fed meeting is September 16th. And if you look at the probabilities right now, the probability is about a coin flip or so, right?

It's about a coin flip. You're looking at about a 57% chance of a rate hike, a 43% chance that they do absolutely nothing. And what I sort of tend to think right now is that the way this could play out like it has played out in the last three midterm years would be to get a correction starting around the time of the next Fed meeting again which is about five or six weeks away about 6 weeks away. And the reason I say that is because there's an argument to be had that if the Fed does raise rates at the next meeting.

And remember, the first time they cut rates in 2025 was in September. The first time they cut rates in 2024 was in September. So perhaps they will raise rates in September. And a lot of people have said, "Well, they're not going to raise rates in September." And they might not. Like I don't I don't know for sure that they're going to, but I would argue that September might be a better month to do it than a week before midterms. and waiting until December might cause the bond vigilantes to just absolutely revolt if they wait until December.

So if we were to get a rate hike in September, then you might see that correction occur just because people are worried. Not because the economy is necessarily crumbling, just because people are worried that the easing cycle is over and then we're going back into a a hiking cycle. If the Fed were not to raise rates in September, then the argument would simply be that the long end of the yield curve is going to go higher.

You're likely going to have the 10-year yield breaking out above 5%. It's already heading in that direction now. Uh, you know, if you look at the 10ear yield, it's at 4.6%. And my guess, and we've been talking about this for a while, is that it will likely head back up to where it was in October of 2023. Note, the 30-year yield has already made it there, right? The 30-year yield has already broken through where it was in October 2023.

So, I think it's only a matter of time before the 10-year yield uh gets there as well. And I I think that's something important to watch here over the next couple of months. So, going back to the S&P, you know, when we think about what is the most likely outcome here, I think in the short term, you're likely going to see more or less the same stuff. The S&P is has sort of broken out. You're likely going to see this bullishness continue would my guess would be for at least a few more weeks.

Um, unless we're just going completely faked out and sometime potentially in October, but I would lean towards September at this point. sometime in September getting that correction that then ushers in what I would consider to be the market cycle bottom for Bitcoin. Now, when I talk about a correction in stocks that will

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