胡塞武装封锁曼德海峡，全球能源市场再受冲击

Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, global energy markets have become increasingly dependent on the Bab al-Mandab, another maritime choke point between Djibouti and Yemen that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, and whose name literally translates to the gate of grief. For the past few weeks, the Iranians have been threatening to close the Bab al-Mandab, and on Monday evening, that's exactly what happened with the Houthis, who control most of western Yemen and are widely considered an Iranian proxy, announcing a total blockade on everything coming in and out of Saudi Arabia's ports.

Given that most of Saudi Arabia's trade goes via the Bab al-Mandab, and that any Houthi activity will probably also spook non-Saudi ships, in practice, it looks like another maritime choke point has now been shut off. So, in this video, we're going to explain why Iran and the Houthis have decided to do this now, rather than 5 months ago, and what impact it could have on global energy markets. Never miss an episode and always feel in the loop by subscribing and ringing the bell.

So, let's start by explaining how and why the Bab al-Mandab has become so important to global energy markets. In short, after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which something like 20 million barrels of oil, or 20% of the global market, usually passes every day, affected countries started trying to reroute oil that would have gone through the strait to other export routes. The UAE, for instance, was able to reroute about 1.5 million barrels a day to the port of Fujairah on the other side of the strait via its Adco pipeline.

Iraq was able to reroute about 300,000 barrels a day to Turkey via another pipeline, and most significantly, Saudi Arabia was able to reroute about 4 million barrels a day to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea via its East-West pipeline. About a million of these new barrels went north to Europe via the Suez Canal, but the remaining 3 million barrels or so went south to Asia via the Bab al-Mandab. This was good news for global oil markets because it reduced the total supply shortfall from about 20 million barrels a day to more like 15 million barrels, but it did make the market, and especially the Saudis, more dependent on the Bab al-Mandab.

Before the war, the Bab al-Mandab handled something like 2 million barrels a day with most of this being Russian oil going to Asia via the Suez Canal and then the Bab al-Mandab. By June, this was up to 6 million with the Saudis accounting for almost all of the increase. This is why any interruption to trade through the Bab al-Mandab would be very bad news for global energy markets. If Saudi exports through the Bab al-Mandab went to zero, which is what the Houthis want, it would essentially take the total shortfall up from about 15 million barrels a day as a consequence of Hormuz being closed again, up to more like 18 million barrels.

And this number could go higher if the Houthis end up being less discerning in their strik