Chris Camillo：观察式投资捕捉社会变化，15年回报68%

The world is still unsure about how this is going to play out. I'm not unsure. I'm willing to bet it all.

What's up? Chris, good to see you again.

Hey Shawn, how you doing, man?

I'm good. So, we should start with a little a little intro. Sam, you weren't here last time Chris was on. Chris, can't you do like the the the simplest explanation of who you are, number one, and then number two is your kind of unique philosophy and unique strategy that you've used to buy and you know, buy and sell stocks to invest.

Yeah, I mean, I'm a reg- I'm a regular person. For most of my career, I've had a regular job. Uh I'm not a financial analyst. I'm not a technical trader. I hate all that stuff. I hate technicals. I hate fundamentals. I'm like most regular people, right? Like a normal guy with a normal job that was trying to break out, you know, try to find a future for myself cuz I realized that my job was capped like 99.9% of people in this world and you know, I started investing something I call observational investing or social arb investing, which is really all it is is trying to detect change in the world, whether it's change in technological development or change in culture, change in consumer behavior.

But, you're trying to detect change and you're trying to connect that change uh connect the dots to companies that would either benefit or be harmed by that change. So, you're and then you're investing in those companies. It's It's that simple.

One of many of ways that you personally observe is through social media comments.

Yeah, I mean, like think about it. Like, how do you observe change in the world the quickest? What do people do before they change their life? They talk about it, right? Before you can see the evidence of it, they talk about it. If you are a developer and and you're changing the way that you develop software and you're you're adopting AI in your company, you're probably in Reddit forums with other developers speaking about it.

[snorts]

And it's not always tech. A lot of it is just consumer behavior, right? Because I remember you had one that was around the Sphere, which most people don't even realize that's the big the big dome in Vegas, the Sphere. It's a publicly traded stock and I think you noticed what was it that Wizard of Oz? You were like, "Dude, this Wizard of Oz show

Yeah, game game game-changer.

Right? They didn't

quite nail product market fit at the Sphere until that Wizard of Oz came out and they're like, "Oh, take an old movie, use AI to make it more interesting in terms of visuals to put it on this insane projection screen and then add some 4D effects like a tornado and the wind's blowing and all this stuff and all of a sudden you created a unique human experience that would go viral on TikTok, which is exactly what happened."

And now people from around the world, from Europe, are like, "We're going to Vegas to go to the Sphere place to see this the Wizard of Oz that we saw went viral on TikTok, right?" And so, man, what a game-changer.

Did you buy it?

Dude, yeah.

So, I I heard him talking about it. So, I started tracking it. It's up 220% in the last year.

you mean from the time we got in, which is like at 20-something bucks, it's up like 6x or something.

Chris, I got to give you a little credit cuz anytime somebody comes on the pod and talks about investing, the goal is first to get context on Okay, before we listen and and really drink the Kool-Aid on all the your philosophy or your strategy, we like to understand does it work? What what are the What are the results? And so, you could talk a little bit about that, but I'll give one little point, which was last time you were on the pod, I asked you to make three sort of picks, three predictions, three three stocks to look at.

You said Palantir, Bloom Energy. It was at $92, it's now at $240, so it's up 165% since the last podcast. And then Nvidia, which is up a smaller amount, but those were your three picks. So, I got to give you give you a little bit of credit.

So here's the thing like I actually aggressively disagree with that type of performance analysis because the world's changing every minute of every day. So I the day after the show, I could have found new information that would have put me on the opposite side of all three of those trades, right? And so the only way you could ever analyze any investor ever is through long-term audits. Over a long period of time, total portfolio.

I don't care if an investor comes on, gives you five stocks, and all of them rocket. It could have been based on beta, could have been based on the like it completely luck, right? Uh so don't give me any credit for anything from the last show. If you don't want I mean, you feel free if you want, but all that actually matters is what's like the 10, 15, 20-year total portfolio track record in and out through multiple markets.

Great. So what So what is it? What are the audited What is it? 15-year results?

68% over over 16 15 or 16 years.

What does that mean in terms of dollars? What did you start with?

I've generated about 80 million off of an initial $20,000 portfolio that I kicked off in 2007.

Wow. And then do you reinvest new capital into that?

The truth is that I took massive amounts of capital out every year, almost all of my profits. And so theoretically, if I kept it all in and maintained the same returns, which would have been harder because the account would have been larger, obviously, it'd be like at 700 million or something like that. Um but you know, the truth is it's meaningfully easier to manage an account that is seven to eight figures than an account that's nine figures for obvious reasons, right?

So you You never really compare apples to apples. You can't really compare me to a guy managing 5 billion. It's unfair to the guy that's managing 5 billion cuz he has restrictions. He's having to move large amounts of money. I'm able to be hyper flexible with the what I do, but I would say that the sizing of my account is still meaningfully larger than just about any other retail investor in the world.

What's been the worst downswing? What year did you do the worst or what's what's been the biggest dip you had?

I think I have I'm It wasn't crazy. It was like 30% down, 20 or 30% down in a year. I think the biggest up years might have been like 300% in a year. So, but it's been relatively relatively consistent.

So, Chris, I want to ask you a question. After you came on and you talked about this observational investing, and I have to say I I I obviously was I'm a bit skeptical about most financial influencers on YouTube. I would just say like that's just a general stance I have.

You should be more than skeptical.

[laughter]

Yeah, so so uh but but you know, when you what you talked about is didn't it's not like it was some insane idea. Like you look for changes of where where you see the world going, where you think demand is going, where there might be supply constraints. And those obviously might be interesting companies. Now, the question I have for you cuz one of one example is my kids went crazy about this thing called NeeDohs. Explain what these things are.

They're basically just a pile of It's just like a goop ball. I don't even know what do you mean explain it?

It's just It's just a squishy toy. It It It's a squishy toy that is slightly firmer, slightly higher quality. Squishies have been around for 15 years, but they were able to go viral this last year.

It became a thing in kind of elementary and middle schools of like finding rare NeeDohs. They you couldn't find them. So, they had that sort of like that Pokémon card. This happens a lot of times with crazes, right?

But is NeeDoh a public company?

Yeah, so so NeeDoh is a very tiny private company that's actually held by another private company that owns I think 27 private companies and Nido, the company that owns Nido, is one of t

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