Robinhood预测市场每美元交易收入是股票170倍

For a 50c event contract, a non-Gold Robinhood user’s effective entry price is 53c. A Robinhood Gold user’s effective entry price is 51.75c.

Because Robinhood owns the prediction-market brokerage and co-owns Rothera, the exchange, with SIG, it generates revenue from both brokerage and exchange fees. On a non-Gold user’s 50c trade, the brokerage generates 2.5c while the exchange generates another 0.5c.

Spreads today are extremely wide on Robinhood, because the fee structure leaves SIG as effectively the only feasible market maker. At 50c, Rothera charges professional trading firms 3c per contract versus 0.75c for "designated market makers". This creates a 4x disadvantage that favors select firms such as SIG.

Prediction markets generated $156M of transaction revenue for Robinhood on an estimated $6.8B of cash volume. Cash equities, excluding options PFOF, generated only $129M on $956B. Prediction markets therefore produced 21% more revenue on just 0.7% as much volume, representing a roughly 170x higher revenue yield per dollar traded.

Options remain Robinhood’s largest source of transaction-based revenue, driven by PFOF from its large retail user base. Over time, increased competition and improved liquidity have compressed spreads and per-trade economics.

Prediction markets similarly benefit today from high fees, concentrated liquidity, and users with limited alternatives. As more market makers provide liquidity and users gain access to competing venues, fees and spreads will compress. These economics are an early-market anomaly, not a durable equilibrium.