亚马逊上调2026资本开支至2200亿美元，AXT扩产磷化铟

Few earnings TLDRs with my favorite $AXTI and $AMZN:

Amazon: - Raised 2026 capex to $220B vs. prior $200B (partly due to higher memory costs, which is bullish on $MU to Samsung) - Even at $220B, Amazon will not have enough capacity to meet all 2026 demand; Jassy expects the same in 2027. - Most incoming 2027 capacity is already reserved, with substantial 2028 capacity also reserved.

Mostly read through on upstream semis. $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, and $MSFT all identified compute shortage.

All the narratives a few weeks earlier was "excess compute" from Meta and others + hyperscalers cutting back on spend... All BS.

Amazon earnings was very bullish on AI semi trade.

AXTI:

• AXT to double InP capacity during 2026. Then double again in 2027.

This is expected to make AXT "by far the largest indium phosphide producer in the world." - LFG

• Q2 rev was $47.6M, the highest quarterly revenue in AXT history (InP revenue reached a record $30.7M, from DC applications.) - Revenue increased 77% sequentially and 164% year over year. - InP revenue-capacity targets: $60M per quarter exiting 2026. - $130M per quarter exiting 2027

That $130m target could be hiked too since management stated they find "whatever ways to increase that capacity expansion"

• Management said the reported backlog remains well above $100M, but that number no longer reflects all available demand.

"Customer demand continues to outpace supply, no matter how fast we add capacity." 800G/1.6T is driving the current cycle, while NPO/CPO extends it beyond 2027.

Also they're targeting 50%-plus gross margin: "We should definitely be targeting a number that begins with a five."

China demand more than doubled, and their agreements with Casela, $COHR and $LITE did not materially drive Q2.

This is not even considering my projected massive ASP hikes yet as InP substrates get more bottlenecked.

TLDR:

• Amazon too much compute demands, needs capex to fufill it, so upstream semis go brrr. - AXT world largest InP substrate supplier, high gross margins, expansion, and supply can't keep up with demand.

Bullish on demand side from Amazon + capex. Bullish on upstream optical supply chains from too much demand.