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精选70Ryan Chern研究与分析

Kalshi 13 腿连串投注日交易量超 1000 万美元

Platforms are always incentivized to cater to their users.

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Platforms are always incentivized to cater to their users.

  • Retail users want to be able to put down large bets on long-shot outcomes (10+ leg parlays) in hopes of winning $50,000+ with minimal latency. - Market makers want to ensure that they aren't being adversely selected and still operate profitably as more market makers quote parlays.

This leads to the current equilibrium of platforms presenting retail users with pre-built 500x 13-leg parlays. Each popular pre-built parlay easily does over $10M in daily volume. Parlays are the fastest growing category on Kalshi.

Because these 13-leg parlays trade on an order book with 0.1c ticks, market makers compete less on price and more on resting liquidity (which also translates to a better retail UX because there is no RFQ delay). Many market makers don't have the capital to deploy into these +EV parlays due to the capital inefficiency of fully-collateralized parlays, favoring select market makers with large balance sheets.

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