预测市场新方向：声誉市场与声明市场

The most recent prediction market categories with over $100M in volume are e-sports, parlays, and mention markets. These markets provide limited value to users.

Successful prediction markets need recurring disagreement. Thus far, prediction markets have only gone after the legible opportunities with existing demand. This is why regular sporting events drive so much volume and dominate market share.

The larger and more impactful opportunity applies prediction markets to a higher-order abstraction: who we trust and how much social capital we hand them. Prediction markets will fundamentally shift how value is attributed throughout society.

Every individual and organization generates claims every day. Every claim is a chance to disagree. Reputation gets re-litigated constantly, which is the recurring disagreement that generates volume. With LLMs, we are able to parse every claim in real time.

Claim markets not only create a market for reputation but also enable better insight into who is truly at the frontier. A pundit with a track record of consistently forecasting events when they're at 10% is more useful than one repeating forecasts the market already priced at 99%.

The prediction market design space is vastly under-explored. We are actively thinking about novel markets and are excited to build toward a long-term future of prediction markets.