2026年Q2财报前瞻：英伟达、特斯拉、微软、英特尔等

Markets have been shaky heading into this earnings season, driven by three major forces: escalating US-Iran shipping tensions spiking oil prices, a deliberate rotation out of overextended AI and chip stocks, and hawkish Fed comments pushing rate-cut expectations further out.The fact that financials went up while tech tanked tells you everything you need to know: this wasn't a panic, it was a massive macro repositioning.Now, the very tech giants that took the hit are about to report. Tesla and Alphabet kick things off on July 22, followed by Intel on July 23 and Microsoft on July 29. Over the next five weeks, nine key earnings reports will either prove this sell-off was an overreaction or trigger the next leg down.Below is your complete Q2 2026 earnings calendar with consensus estimates, the exact metrics that will move each stock, and how you can trade these moves as Equity Perps on BitMEX.Q2 2026 Earnings CalendarCompanyTickerReport DateEPS EstimateRevenue EstimateTeslaTSLAJuly 22, 2026$0.48$25.5BAlphabetGOOGJuly 22, 2026$2.86–$2.95$120BIntelINTCJuly 23, 2026$0.21$14.7BMicrosoftMSFTJuly 29, 2026$4.33$89.4BRobinhoodHOODJuly 29, 2026$0.41–$0.42$1.23BCoinbaseCOINJuly 30, 2026$0.12–$0.14$1.35BStrategy (MicroStrategy)MSTRJuly 30, 2026$16.85—CircleCRCLAugust 11, 2026$0.26$3.08B (FY)NVIDIANVDAAugust 26, 2026$2.07–$2.09$80B+ (Data centre)Nvidia (NVDA) EarningsEarnings date: August 26, 2026EPS estimate: $2.07–$2.09Revenue estimate: Q2 Data centre consensus ~$80B+NVIDIA reports last among the major tech names this cycle, which means it will either confirm or contradict the AI spending narrative that the rest of the sector has already laid out. Q1 FY2027 revenue came in at $81.6B, up 85% year-over-year, with Data centre alone contributing $75.2B. The trajectory of EPS tells the fuller story: from $0.60 in Q1 FY2025 to $1.87 in Q1 FY2027 — a 212% increase in nine quarters.The apparent paradox is the stock’s positioning. NVDA trades at roughly $197 with a forward P/E of approximately 22× — near a decade low — yet H1 2026 sector returns tell a different story: AMD is up 70%, Micron 45%, Intel 13%, and NVDA just 5%. Capital has been rotating into the names that lagged during the initial AI trade, leaving NVDA as the relative underperformer despite superior fundamental delivery.Watch ForQ2 Data centre revenue vs Q1’s $75.2B: A sequential step-down would raise questions about whether Blackwell demand is pulling forward from future quarters or whether hyperscaler orders are genuinely durable.Q3 guidance: The forward look typically matters more than the beat itself for NVDA. Any guidance below the current $83–$85B Street estimate would send the stock lower even on a clean Q2 print.China H20 and Blackwell export approvals: Any regulatory commentary or incremental license approvals for China shipments could unlock a material upside revision to the addressable market.The forward P/E compression to 22× makes NVDA the most interesting risk/reward in the group on a valuation basis. Trade NVDA 24/7 on BitMEX, even when markets are closed.Tesla (TSLA) EarningsEarnings date: July 22, 2026EPS estimate: $0.48Revenue estimate: $25.5BTesla’s Q2 deliveries are already on the table – 480,126 units, up 25% year-over-year and an 18% beat against expectations. That removes one variable from the earnings call, but it also raises the stakes for what comes after the volume number: margin quality and the economics of the autonomous bets.Tesla’s annual EPS peaked at $4.30 in 2023 and has fallen to $1.09 today — a 75% drop. The stock trades at $394, which puts the trailing P/E at 385x.Normally P/E and EPS move in the same direction. A company earns more, investors pay a higher multiple. Earnings fall, the multiple falls with them. Tesla is doing the opposite — EPS collapsed and the P/E expanded. The market stopped pricing Tesla as a car company and started pricing it as a robotaxi and AI platform.Watch ForAutomotive gross margin above 17%: The trough was 12.5% in Q1 2025. The recovery to 19.2% in Q1 2026 was the single most important number in that quarter’s report. Sustained margin above 17% signals the pricing cuts have fully cycled through and the cost structure is holding.Cybercab production cost and timeline: Any update to unit economics or a concrete volume ramp schedule will be closely scrutinised for whether the headline product can generate real gross profit.Robotaxi revenue per mile and fleet utilisation from Austin and Miami: These metrics will appear in some form for the first time this quarter. Even preliminary data will shape how analysts model the autonomous business over the next 12–18 months.Trade TSLA 24/7 even when markets are closed.Microsoft (MSFT) EarningsEarnings date: July 29, 2026EPS estimate: $4.33Revenue estimate: $89.4BMicrosoft enters Q4 FY2026 reporting with one of the cleaner fundamental setups in large-cap tech. Azure growth has re-accelerated from a 26% trough in FY2023 all the way to 40% in Q3 FY2026, a trajectory that had been widely viewed as structurally impaired before the AI workload wave arrived. The AI-specific revenue run rate stands at $37B annually (up 123% year-over-year) with 15 million paid Copilot seats in commercial deployment.The capital expenditure commitment is the number that continues to attract scrutiny in both directions. Microsoft has guided to $190B in CapEx for FY2026 — a figure that implies either a very deep conviction in the AI demand pipeline or a structurally elevated cost base that will pressure free cash flow for years. Management’s framing of that spend on the call will matter as much as the Q4 numbers themselves.Watch ForAzure growth above 38%: The Q3 print of 40% set a high bar. A number below 35% would be treated as a meaningful deceleration by the market regardless of overall revenue.Copilot paid seat growth or stall: At 15 million seats, Copilot is generating real revenue but needs to show it is still in the early stages of a large deployment curve.Q4 CapEx figure relative to the $40B+ quarterly guidance: Any significant miss against that number would raise questions about whether hyperscaler demand is softening.Trade $MSFT 24/7 with up to 20x leverage.Google (GOOG) EarningsEarnings date: July 22, 2026EPS estimate: $2.86–$2.95 (+24% YoY)Revenue estimate: $120BAlphabet reports alongside Tesla on July 22, which makes for a packed evening for traders with exposure to both. The primary narrative going into this print is Google Cloud, which has accelerated its growth rate across five consecutive quarters to reach $20.03B in Q1. That trajectory has pushed Cloud operating margin from 17.8% to 32.9% in the space of a year. The backlog disclosure in Q1 was the most striking data point: $462B in unrecognised revenue, which nearly doubled in a single quarter.Watch ForCloud revenue above $21–$22B: The company has guided to approximately $85B in Cloud revenue for full-year 2026, requiring a meaningful step-up from Q1’s $20.03B.Search advertising CTR with AI Overviews: Any CTR data will either confirm or reopen the cannibalisation debate that consensus thought was closed.Cloud operating margin above 30%: The expansion from sub-20% to above 30% has been the primary driver of total Alphabet earnings upgrades. Any regression would concern analysts.Trade GOOGL with 20x leverage, even when markets are closed.Intel (INTC) EarningsEarnings date: July 23, 2026EPS estimate: $0.21 (consensus); $0.20 (company guidance)Revenue estimate: $14.7BIntel’s Q2 2026 report is the most binary setup in this earnings cycle. Q1 produced an extraordinary result: $0.29 EPS against a $0.01 consensus estimate, a 2,800% beat that triggered a re-rating from approximately $20 to $110 in the twelve months that followed. Q2 is expected to be the first GAAP-profitable quarter after six consecutive quarters of GAAP losses.Watch ForGAAP profitability: If Intel delivers its first GAAP profit in six quarters, it opens the door to a different category of institutional ow

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