开源模型崛起：模型能力差距缩小，融合策略更优

Bullish on open models.

At this rate, it won't even make sense to compare models directly.

And it looks like I was right. We might have an open-weight Fable/Mythos 5-level model by EOY.

But don't get distracted because overdependence on one model is a poor strategy. Combine models instead.

How I decide which models to use now is based on what they can solve and how effective and efficient they are. No single benchmark can measure that. Thus, private evals on your harnesses and workflows are the only real way to tell how much you are leaving on the table when you exclude models in the top 10 in this chart. The difference in results that matters doesn't change that much once you start fusing model capabilities. Very few people know this.

I say this because you would be absolutely mistaken if you were only relying on one or the top model in this chart. Capability gaps between models have been significantly shrinking, and that trend will accelerate in the coming months.