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THE COUNTDOWN IS ON. EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO GET THE EDGE OF THE END OF THE MARKET DAY. THIS IS "THE CLOSE." ROMAINE: EASING INFLATION, LOWER VOLUME BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH TO CONVINCE SOME TRADERS TO BUY INTO THAT DIP. LIVE FROM BLUE HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK, I'M ROMAINE BOSTICK.

WE ARE KEEPING YOU UP TO THE CLOSING BELL ON THIS WEDNESDAY. YOU ARE LOOKING AT A NASDAQ THAT IS OPPO SESSION WAS BUT STILL DOWN BY ZERO .6%. OF COURSE, WE SAW SOFTER THAN FORECASTED INFLATION PRINT BUT THAT OPTIMISM IS OVERSHADOWED BY THE CHIPPER ROUTE. SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX DOWN BY NEARLY 3%. THAT INFLATION PRINT IS WHY YOU ARE SEEING U.S. TREASURIES AT THIS LEVEL. TRADERS DIALING BACK A RATE CUT BETS. IN FACT, THEY ARE LOOKING AT A DECEMBER RATE HIKE NOW.

REMEMBER WHEN SPACEX WENT PUBLIC ON JUNE 12? THIS IS THE FIRST TIME IT HIT BELOW THE 135 PRICE LEVEL IT WAS FAMOUS FOR. ROMAINE: INTERESTING TO SEE THE PRICE ACTION AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE CLOSING BELL. WE START OUT ON A POSITIVE NOTE OR STOCKS. 12% DRUNK ON GASOLINE WAS A BIG HELP BUT THERE WAS ALSO RELIEVED ELSEWHERE. LOWER WAREHOUSE COST, LOWER AIRFARES, LOWER PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT FEES, AND EVEN SOME FOOD ITEMS LIKE GRAINS, EGGS, AND PORK, THEY GOT CHEAPER.

HOWEVER, READ TO GET A REMINDER THAT THE SPECTER OF INFLATION STILL LOOMS, PARTICULARLY FOR GOODS AND SERVICES TIED TO THE AI BOOM. PRICES ON COMPUTER SOFTWARE AND ACCESSORIES IN YESTERDAY'S CPI REPORT INCREASED FOR THE SEVENTH MONTH IN THE PAST EIGHT, WHILE A MEASURE OF WHAT PRODUCERS PAY FOR COMPUTERS AND EQUIPMENT ROSE FOR A 12TH STRAIGHT MONTH. THEN YOU HAD A ASML WHICH SITS ATOP THE AI CHIP SUPPLY CHAIN, THE SOLE SUPPLIER OF THOSE ADVANCED MACHINES.

NOW WE ARE LEARNING BASED ON A REPORT THAT IT IS MULLING TO MARKET OF ITS PRICE TAGS AGAIN. THEN THERE IS THE OIL STORY. WHILE BRENT CRUDE SITS BELOW THE $90 A BARREL AVERAGE SINCE THE IRAN WAR BEGAN COME IN FEBRUARY, REFINERS OF THE OIL HERE IN JULY STILL STRUGGLING TO REBUILD SOME OF THOSE SUPPLIES. THAT IS REFLECTING AND CRACK SPREADS, DIFFERENT BETWEEN WHAT A REFINER PAYS FOR THE CRUDE AND THE PRICE IT CHARGES FOR THE FINISHED PRODUCT, THAT SPREAD AT HISTORIC HIGHS AND SOME FOLKS DON'T THINK IT WILL NARROW ANYTIME SOON.

I THINK OIL WILL STAY STICKY FOR LONGER. I'M NOT SURE IT WILL BE IN CRUDE, THOUGH, THE REFINED COSTS IS WHERE YOU WILL FIND IT WILL TAKE A LOT LONGER FOR THAT TO COME DOWN. ROMAINE: THAT IS THE VIEW OF THE HEAD OF ONE OF THE BIGGEST AIRLINES OUT THERE. TRADERS ARE IN THE SAME BOAT. ISABELLE: I DO WANT TO STICK WITH OIL BECAUSE ALL THE POINTS YOU RAISE ARE VERY INTERESTING. IT'S A VERY FASCINATING CHART BECAUSE THE PRICE OF CRUDE, THE WHITE LINE, HAS FALLEN MUCH FASTER THAN THE PRICE OF GASOLINE, DIESEL, AND JET FUEL.

THAT IS BECAUSE REFINERS HAVE STRUGGLED TO KEEP UP WITH THE MAN. NORMALLY PRICES MOVE MORE LARGELY IN TANDEM BUT DESTRUCTION TO REFINING CAPACITY ESPECIALLY IN RUSSIA HAS CAP REFINED PRODUCTS RELATIVELY SCARCE, ALLOWING PRICES TO STAY HIGH EVEN AS CRUDE BECOMES CHEAPER. THIS THEN WIDENS THE PROFIT MARGIN, WHICH IS KNOWN AS THE CRACK SPREAD. ROMAINE: LET'S KICK OFF THE CLOSE TODAY WITH JEFFREY CURRY, EXECUTIVE COCHAIRMEN AT ABAXX MARKETS.

I WANT TO START WITH WHAT READ WE SHOULD TAKE IT ALL FROM WHAT IS EFFECTIVELY ONE OF THE HIGHEST CRACK SPREADS WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE MID-1980'S, RELATIVE TO THE RELATIVE FADE WE HAVE SEEN IN CRUDE OIL FUTURES THEMSELVES. JEFFREY: WHEN WE THINK ABOUT OIL, IT WAS IMPACTED -- ONE THAT EMILY YOU CAME OUT, IT WAS LIKE POPPING A PIMPLE. THERE WAS OIL TRAPPED BEHIND THE STRAIT AND THAT IT ALL CAME OUT SUDDENLY. OVER 120 MILLION BARRELS.

SOME ESTIMATES AS HIGH AS 100 50 MILLION BARRELS. THAT HIT CRUDE HARD AS IT CAME DOWN BUT YOU CANNOT REFINED IT IMMEDIATELY AND PUT IT INTO PRODUCTS. AT THE SAME TIME, UKRAINE STARTED STRIKING DEEP INTO RUSSIA. 1300 KILOMETERS INSIDE RUSSIA BUT PRECISION DRONE STRIKES THAT WERE TAKING OUT WHAT WE CALL THE CRUDE OIL DISTILLATION UNIT, THE PRIMARY TOWER. SOME OF THESE THINGS WILL TAKE YEARS TO REBUILD. THE DAMAGE WAS SO EXTENSIVE COME IS TAKEN ON MORE THAN 50% OF THE REFINING CAPACITY OUT OF RUSSIA, IT'S LED TO CRUDE OIL SHUT INS.

WE HAVE ALSO LOST THE CRUDE OIL AND THE REFINERIES IN RUSSIA. SO THE SITUATION IN THE ENERGY I WOULD ARGUE IS PRETTY DIRE. THE OTHER THING I WANT TO POINT OUT IS THAT WE HAVE EXHAUSTED ALL THE INSURANCE POLICIES IN ROUND ONE OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. WHETHER IT IS INVENTORY BUFFERS OR WHETHER IT IS CHINA FLEXING ITS ECONOMY, ABLE TO SURVIVE THE DOWNTURN. IT'S A VERY DIFFERENT SITUATION IN THIS ROUND TWO THAN WHAT WE SAW IN ROUND ONE.

ROMAINE: SQUARE THE CIRCLE WITH ME BECAUSE YOU GET THIS MESSAGING FROM THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION. I UNDERSTAND THEY WILL TALK TO THEIR SIDE OF THE STORY, BUT THEY TALK ABOUT THIS OIL GLUT, ALL THE TANKERS THAT ARE READY TO PICK UP THE SLACK HERE IF AND WHEN THEY GET THE SITUATION IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ TAKEN CARE OF. WITH NO BUFFER, NO CHRISTIAN, WHY IS THERE STILL A LOT OF OPTIMISM OUT THERE NOT JUST FROM THE ADMINISTRATION BUT FROM THE CORPORATE CEOS THAT WE HEARD FROM?

JEFFREY: THEY HAVE WITNESSED THE FACT THAT NOTHING HAPPENED IN ROUND ONE. I LIKE TO SAY COMMODITIES ARE SPOT ASSETS. THEY PRICE TO TODAY'S FUNDAMENTALS. WE WERE BURNING THROUGH THE INVENTORY CHRISTIAN BUFFER. WE DIDN'T HAVE SHORTAGES. WE HAD A DEFICIT, MEANING THE MAN WAS ABOUT SUPPLY AND YOU WERE DRUNK INVENTORIES. WE DIDN'T RUN OUT OF OIL. THIS TIME AROUND, WHY DO WE HAVE PRODUCTS TRADING AT THESE ALL-TIME HIGH LEVELS, DIESEL IN NEW YORK HARBOR IS $140 A BARREL?

WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE PROBABILITY OF RUNNING INTO REAL SHORTAGES OF PRODUCTS. EVENTUALLY, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH PROVIDING CAPACITY AS YOU WILL BURN THROUGH A LOT OF THIS CRUDE PARTICULARLY IN CHINA. FROM WHAT I UNDERSTAND COME IN THE MARGINS ARE BIG FOR EXPORTS, THEY LIFTED THE EXPORT BAN OUT OF CHINA. THOSE REFINERS WILL COME BACK AND START PROCESSING. YOU WILL SEE THE RISE IN CRUDE AS YOU MOVE CLOSER TO THE PRODUCT.

THE MAIN REASON WHY THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT IT IS NOT GOING TO BE BAD, I CALL IT THE ABUNDANT SOLUTION. THEY ARE LOOKING AT THE INVENTORY DRAWS, CHINA HELPED OUT WITH FLEXING ITS SYSTEM, AND WE DIDN'T SEE THE SHORTAGE, SO EVERYONE COULD ADVANCE. ROUND TWO, YOU WON'T SEE THE SHORTAGES. BOTH SIDES HAVE ENTRENCHED THEMSELVES. ONE OTHER FACT THAT MAKES THIS DIFFERENT, THE SAUDI'S AND THE HOUTHIS ARE AT IT.

THEY ARE CONTROLLING THE RED SEA, THE DIVERSION EXPORT FOR SAUDI ARABIA. THE SITUATION THIS TIME AROUND IS JUST FAR DIFFERENT AND FAR MORE DANGEROUS. ISABELLE: DO YOU THINK DEMAND DESTRUCTION CAN OFFSET SUPPLY SHORTAGES OR ARE WE ENTERING A NEW ERA WHERE OIL PRICES ARE JUST STRUCTURALLY HIGHER AND THAT'S THE NEW NORMAL? JEFFREY: I WAS ARGUING BEFORE THIS HAPPENED WE WERE ENTERING A NEW ERA WHERE ALL COMMODITY PRICES, OIL, METALS, AGRICULTURE WOULD BE FRACTIONALLY HIGHER.

EVERYTHING WAS GOING THAT DIRECTION UNTIL THE CEASE-FIRE IN APRIL. PART OF THAT, WE CALL THAT THE REVENGE OF THE OLD ECONOMY, THAT YOU NEED TO HAVE INVESTMENT IN THESE OLD ECONOMY, ASSET HEAVY INDUSTRIES THAT WERE STARVED OF CAPITAL IN FAVOR OF ASSET LIKE LIKE TECHNOLOGIES. THE UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTALS ARE VERY DIFFERENT. I COMPLETELY AGREE, WE ARE IN A PERIOD WHERE HARD ASSETS, THE HALO TRADE -- I LIKE TO DIVIDE IT AS HARD AS IT'S LOCAL OPERATIONS.

WE REBUILD OUR SUPPLY CHAINS. ENERGY SECURITY. DEFENSE. ALL OF THIS PLAYS INTO THIS, WHICH WILL LEAD INTO HIGHER PRICES. THIS IS JUST PART OF A SEQUENCE, WHETHER IT WAS THE FIRST INVASION OF UKRAINE WITH RUSSIA BACK IN 2022, OR THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, THE NEXT ROUND OF RUSSIA, IRAN, ALL OF THIS IS THE DEGLOBALIZATION TEAM IN WHICH JUST LEADS TO HIGHER COMMODITY PRICES. ISABELLE: MARKET SEEMED COMFORTABLE WITH OIL IN THE 70 TO $80 RANGE.

AT WHAT POINT DO YOU THINK THIS WILL ECONOMICALLY SLOW GROWTH AND MAY BE CHANGED CENTRAL BANK THINKING? JEFFREY: THE QUESTION AROUND SLOWING GROWTH IS IT IS NOT SO MUCH THE PRICE OF THE COMMODITY, THAT IS A RELATIVE PRICE. THE QUESTION ON INFLATION IS DO YOU END

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