数据科学家警告比特币持有者：历史正在重演

Like if you look at the 2018 bear market compared to the 2026 bear market, they're actually really similar. Look at the similarities. Really eerily similar. And I'll actually talk about where I think they're going to deviate.

"History [music] is repeating", says data scientist Ben Cowen, who is noticing some eerie [music] similarities between 2026 and 2018. "A final crash is coming."

So you're saying that this year playing out very similar to 2018. And obviously, after a big dip in the beginning of 2018 and you know, ranging near the lows, we saw that one final capitulation. If true, if there's one more capitulation left, what is your price target?

Ben Cowen gives his best prediction for where he thinks Bitcoin goes next based on data.

You have 3-month 3-month warning, Altcoin Daily audience. It is now that you show me all this, it is amazing how closely it has like followed 2018.

Smash the like button. Share this video with one friend who also follows Bitcoin and let's [music] jump into this.

Macroeconomic analyst and data scientist, also sometimes known as a dubious speculator, Benjamin Cowen of Into the Cryptoverse, he has just started a new crypto and cycles investing conference. It's in Miami, November 21st, 10% off tickets with my link below. More on that later. But then, I'm really happy you're coming on today. Before we talk about price, man, how are you? How are you getting through these hard times in crypto?

The World Cup. I think that's how I'm getting through it. Um I mean, the World Cup is fine. That's one of the highlights of mid-term years, right? Is every mid-term year we have the World Cup. So that's what I'm mostly watching. And you know, with crypto, a lot of times we get a sort of a big drop going into the summer like late June early July and and then there the the markets kind of go up slightly for usually part of July and August so you get like a little reprieve from that from that bear market.

But yeah, I think just trying to distract myself with other things real life, right? Real life. We have five kids too. We got a yeah, our fifth kid this year and that's certainly um, taken a lot of my attention as well. So, I guess life is the way I'm getting is getting through it.

That's awesome. That's awesome. The bear market didn't stop you from meeting a nice lovely woman and starting a family.

Exactly.

But real quick, uh, World Cup prediction.

So, like like crypto, there's what I want to happen and what I think will happen, right? And what I want to happen is I want the US to win the whole thing, right? Like without a doubt, that's who I that's who I want to see. Um, now is that likely? Probably not, but I'm going to be a uh, I'm going to be a blind perma bull rooting for the USA even though it might not seem like the most likely outcome. Who do I think will win it?

Um, I mean, Argentina's got to be up there. I think France has has pretty good odds. I mean, just the the main juggernauts, right? You have France, Spain, Argentina, and England. Um, Germany getting going out was a big surprise. And that was a pretty big surprise early. Brazil's out. You know, I'd like to see Norway do well. I I think Holland is a is really fun to watch play. I'd like to see them do well. And also, by the way, the best chess player in the world is also from Norway, Magnus Carlsen.

So, uh, that'd be kind of cool to see them do well. So, I I don't really, you know, I it's hard to know because even Argentina only beat Cabo Verde three to two, you know? So, this is one of those things where no one really knows. I'm I'm cheering for the USA and and if it's not them, it'll probably be one of those big four. Ben, let's jump in to Bitcoin and you know, your thoughts on you know, what comes next. I guess to start things off, what surprised you the most in 2026 so far?

I think I'm I I think I'm actually really surprised by just how closely it's matched 2018. Like I keep thinking all right, like it'll deviate at some point and throw us a curveball that that is is tough to you know, sort of that's tough to foresee, but then so far it keeps playing out in the same way. And uh I could I could share my screen quickly and kind of show you guys what I'm talking about. Like if you look at at the 2018 bear market compared to the 2026 bear market, they're actually really similar.

And I'll actually talk about where I think they're going to deviate. Um Now, they may not look similar and the reason

you're saying that this year playing out very similar to 2018 and obviously, you know, after a big dip in the beginning of 2018 and you know, ranging near the lows, we saw that one final capitulation, you know, something a lot of people weren't weren't calling for. And is that kind of

Right. Yeah, so the one the people the reason why people don't think it's like 2018 is because in 2018, Bitcoin had a U fork rally and we had a rotation into high-risk assets, altcoins, right? And we had the famous alt season in late 2017, early 2018. That was around the time that I know you started your channel and that was when I remember watching you for the very first time, um which was still like a year and a half before I started mine.

But if you look at the chart here, like you you see like if I were to draw a line at like 126 or 12,600, this this little move right here by Bitcoin is the reason why it feels so much different than than 2018. Because if Bitcoin had just topped out at a a 12,600 back then, look at the similarities. Look at So, you had you had a major low in February. And then you had a higher low. Sorry, let me fix that line. So, you had your first low in February.

And I'll draw that line out. So, first low here, February 2018. And then we printed a higher low in late March and early April. And in 2026, it's the same thing, right? We had a low in February. And then we printed a higher low in late March, early April. From there, Bitcoin rallied up to its 200-day moving average. I'm just switching this over to the daily so I can pull up the daily moving average. You can see that from that higher low, Bitcoin rallied up to that 200-day moving average in May of 2018.

And that's exactly where it rallied up to in May of 2026, right? In the that 200-day moving average. And then where it gets really eerily similar is that the low that was formed in June. You see how we swept the February low in 2018, we swept it in June.

Mhm.

The low that formed was at 5,700 when we swept it. And we swept it in late June, early July time frame. And the low that we just formed in late June, early July of 2026 was 57,000. So, like I keep thinking there's no way it's going to keep tracking. And I keep It's one of those things where I'll like I'll make these videos and be like, all right, if it's going to play out like this, it's going to put a low in February, higher low in March or April, lower high in May, and then a lower low in June.

But it's like I don't necessarily believe everything that I say, right? Like I say that this is what's going to happen, but then it keeps playing out that way. So, I would say that's been the biggest surprise is just how similar it is. And one quick way to visualize just how similar it is is if you look at the year-to-date ROI of Bitcoin in 2026 and compare it to 2018, you can see how the lows line up, right? And even the high the high in May how it lines up and even the low that we just had, the daily close literally lines up with the low we had in um you know, in 2018.

And you can see that after that low we had a rally for a while for like a week and a half and then we had a pullback and then we had a larger rally that then took Bitcoin back up to the 200-day moving average. Now, what's interesting is when Bitcoin went up to the 200-day moving average in July, it gave all those gains back in August, right? And and also in 2022 we had a rally into July and early August and then all those gains were given back in August and an

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