比特币：7月短暂强势窗口，4年周期模式再现

Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin, and we're going to discuss the brief window of weakness that often occurs in July of midterm years after a pretty brutal uh beat down in the price of Bitcoin going into in a late June. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com.

And also, as I've said previously as well, make sure you guys check out the first ITC conference. Link to that will be in the description below. Let's go ahead and jump in. So, we've put out a lot of videos on this, the 4-year cycle and and how the simulation is confirmed, but basically it's sort of tied around the idea that you know, like June, late June, early July often marks the low in the market. You can see June of 2022 and and of course June of 2018.

And then what often happens is you get some type of counter move out of it that then tops out in like late July or in like mid-August. That's just what happens, right? That's just what happens. And la- in in 2018, we had a brief move up, and then we had like a a down week, and then in in sort of like mid-July going into around the time the inflation report came out, and then a larger move on the other side of or sorry, in the back half of July, and ultimately it basically just got rejected around the 21-week EMA, 20-week SMA.

So, if you actually go to the daily time frame, you can see that it was rejected by the 200-day moving average uh back then as well. So, you had the rejection at uh in May of 2018, and then you had the rejection in July of 2018. And then basically all the gains that Bitcoin had in July were just given back in August in 2018. And then also in 2022, the same thing, right? There were some gains that to be had in in July and and August in mid going into mid-August and then all those gains were essentially just given back in August and September.

So, it's important to remember that the 4-year cycle does not say that the market goes down only. What it says is that there's a window of weakness in mid-term years where major lows tend to occur. And and that within that window of weakness, you can have sort of brief pockets of strength. And one of the ways to visualize that is to look at monthly returns of Bitcoin in July and see that a lot of times July is in fact a green month.

It doesn't have to be, right? I mean, maybe this cycle will throw us a curveball, but if you look at 2022, Bitcoin went up about 19 to 20% in July. And if you look at 2018, it went up about 38% in July. 2014, it was red, right? About -5%. But on average, Bitcoin goes up about 9% in July. Of course, plus or minus 15 to 16%. So, not super statistically significant, but it does show you, you know, and one of the reasons is cuz you're we're using some of the years going all the way back to 2012.

If we were to calculate this average just say from say like 2014, it kind of narrows that down a little bit, 8.2% plus or minus 13.6. Um But what you'll see as well is that in 2018 and 2022, June was was red, just like it was in 2026. And then you had a a green July, and then August and September, so if you look at 2022, August and September were both red. If you look at 2018, August and September were also both red.

And in 2014, where you had a red July, August and September were in fact still red. Now, we had there was this announcement this morning that you know, strategy sold some more Bitcoin. And we had this wick all the way down here, but the fact that we got it back so quickly kind of shows you where that seasonal strength that the seasonal strength is there. That doesn't mean that you won't eventually get a larger drop and form a higher low.

If you go back and look at at 2018, that's actually what happened, right? We had an initial move off of 5700. Coincidentally, right? Off of 5700, we had a rally up to about like 67, 68 K or 6800. We came back down uh to form a macro higher low in mid-July, okay? And then in that maybe not a macro higher low, but sort of you had a low, you had a higher low, and then you swept that low. You swept the higher low in August.

So, I know it's not like we have a ton of data points, but look, the simulation continues to repeat itself. If it wants to do something else, that's fine. I'm not saying you need to your base your investing strategy around it. As I've said previously, DCA'ing Bitcoin in the second half of mid-term years is normally the way to go. Uh and one of the reasons for that is you get these periods of strength that can happen that would could easily make a lot of people sort of FOMO in late only then sell the local top.

I'm sure there's a lot of people that sold Bitcoin, you know, at the November low only to then buy it back at the January high. All right? I'm sure. And then to sell it again at the February low only to buy it back at the May high. So, you got to make sure you don't fall into that trap because it's really easy to. And what I've noticed is that every single time we get these countertrend rallies, a lot of people get really upset and then they sort of they attack anyone that was talking about the four-year cycle and and the bear market, but then you kind of fast forward to the next window of weakness and then it no one really cares anymore.

Like, oh well, well, okay. Fine, it it played out. So, I think it's important to just kind of recognize that throughout midterm years there's like windows of weakness and windows of strength. The entire midterm year typically is a window of weakness, but you can still have brief counter moves and if you look at how it played out in 2018, Bitcoin essentially stayed weak until July and once July was here, it had a brief counter trend move, got a pullback, and then it had a larger move back up to near that 200-day moving average.

Now, right now, the 200-day moving average is currently uh at around 74K. But again, it is moving down relatively quickly and arguably, you know, within the next uh couple of weeks, I'm going to say by by late July, the 200-day moving average will probably be just north of 70K. By mid-August, it'll probably be at 70K. So, we've talked before about Bitcoin essentially being stuck between like a rock and a hard place. What I mean by that is that it's kind of in between the 200-week moving average and then also that bear market resistance band.

And I think it's going to be forced to make a decision a little bit later this year. That's what I think is And by the way, I mean even in 2022, you can see we came below the 200-week moving average, uh got a little bit of a bounce, came down again, and then got a larger move up into into July and August before then coming back down, and then putting in the final market cycle bottom. Same thing, right? You drop. The only difference is the next low was a slightly lower low.

Again, windows of weakness and windows of strength do not tell you exactly when the low is. It just tells you or it doesn't tell you what the low is or whether it'll be a higher low or lower low. It just tells you when it should occur. So, you can see how it played out in in 2022. You had a low in June and then a higher low in early July. This time it was a lower low in early July. But, the window of weakness was still the same, right?

It was still the same. You had sort of a wick down in June, a wick down in June, and then a slightly higher low. This time it was a slightly lower low in early July both times. And then what happened back then is we rallied on up into like late July, mid-August. See that? Came back down and then eventually set our market cycle bottom in the fourth quarter. So, you know, as far as I'm concerned, the cycle continues to play out.

I know there's going to always be mental gymnastics, just as I said for the first half of this year, right? I'm not saying you can't buy Bitcoin, right? It usually just

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