Benjamin Cowen：黄金2026年走势路径分析

Hey everyone and thanks for dropping back into the heavy metal verse. Today we're going to talk about gold and we're going to be discussing the path for the rest of the year. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on ITC Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. And as I've said before, make sure you check out the first ITC conference, Investing Through the Cycles.

We're going to have it uh November 20th through the 22nd in Miami, Florida. Hope to see you guys there. Let's go ahead and jump in. So, gold is trading right around $4,000. And we've talked a little bit about kind of what to expect in the midterm year. If you're new to the channel, one of the things that we said previously was look for gold to have a large correction in 2026. Um, and for it to find a low probably sometime between, you know, June, July, going all the way out till October is is when it as late as it could theoretically happen before it starts to find a bounce back up.

Now, one of the reasons I say that is is mostly due to seasonality. If you look at the year-to- date ROI of gold in 2026 and you compare it to say 2022 or 2018, you'll see that gold in 2026 as measured from the yearly open is basically the same as it was at this point in 2022 and in 2018. And so it's still tracking, right? It's still tracking what it normally does. Now the lowest as measured from the yearly open that gold got in 2018 and 2022 was around you know 10 11% down from the yearly open gold this you know in in 2026 has gone about 7 8% down.

So you could argue that while gold might go a little bit lower it probably wouldn't go that much lower this year. Now, of course, a counterpoint would be that it went a lot higher, so maybe it it could go a little bit lower. But when I think about this stuff, I think about like when is the most likely time for gold to bottom. You know, could it bottom soon? Uh could it take a little bit longer? One of the things to note for gold is that recently it actually had a death cross.

But a lot of times when you have death crosses, you have rallies in the short term. And you can actually see we had one. If you look at at when gold crossed the 50-day and the 200 day, you can see you had a little bit of rally on the other side of it. But and if you go back to 2022, you can see kind of the same thing, right? You had a death cross. I guess it sort of dumped right initially, but you had sort of this rally back up to the uh to the 50-day moving average.

We haven't even had that. We haven't been to the 50-day moving average since May. So, it's been a few months. But the point that I'm trying to make is that, you know, if you look at the year-to- date ROI of gold in 2026 and you compare it to 2022 or 2018, you can see that back then it took until like September, October for gold to bottom. But here's the reason why I don't want to overpromise that. Because while in 2018 and 2022, gold dutton bottom for a few more months, it didn't go that much lower.

But the bigger point is if you actually look at the average of all of these midterm years going back to the late 1960s, early 1970s, and let's go ahead and hide 2018 and 2022. On average, gold bottoms in early July of midterm years on average. Even though in 2022 and 2018 you can see that it it took a little bit longer. Now the reason why is because you probably had some pretty big draw downs at some point in that in sort of that part of the midterm year.

Um you can see in 2014 uh gold didn't bottom until November of that midterm year. You look at 2010 uh you can see it was actually had a relatively good year but it did find some weakness into late July before heading higher. If you look at 2006, again, a big drop into like late June, early July, uh, didn't go any lower than where it was in June back then. And you look at 2002, you can see it also found a low in sort of like late July.

It was a higher low. But again, the point of this timebased analysis is not to say it's a lower low or it's a higher low. It's just like when would it find a low? Um, and then you could also, of course, look at like 1998 and see that it it found a low in in late August. So there's no way to know exactly when, but my guess my guess is that gold would likely find a low between say July and October. And one thing I want to be clear though is that you might say, well, gold has been struggling whereas the stock market has been doing okay recently.

And that's true, right? Like that is absolutely true. So if you if you look at the valuation of the S&P against gold, you'll see that it S&P's rallied against gold recently. Um but the point is we have seen these rallies before even after breakdowns. If you look at at you know prior eras, we had the S&P rallied at the same era level of gold against in back in 1973. But the point is is when you look at the overall S&P bull run, right?

When you look at it and you look at at prior drops back in 2008, we had this massive drop, okay? And going into 2009. Now, I'm not saying we're going to get that. But the point is is when we had that, gold was a lot weaker initially, but it came out of it a lot stronger and got to all-time highs a lot quicker. So, if you look at this, the S&P topped in October of 2007. Now, this is what's crazy about this. If you overlay gold onto this chart, what you'll see is that gold actually found a low in October 2008, whereas the S&P didn't find a low until about half a year later.

Now, what's crazy is that gold was basically back at all-time highs by 2009. only a year and a half or so after it topped. For the stock market, it took from ' 07 all the way out until 2013. So, it took a lot longer. Now, we already, you might say, "This doesn't really make sense to compare." I agree. It's not 2008, but we already got a glimpse of this is the point I'm trying to make. If you look at the S&P 500 and you think about kind of the last big crisis we had where the market was really starting to worry, it was during the tariffs. the tariff tantrum back in early 2025.

Now, what's remarkable is if you overlay gold onto that that scare, you'll see that gold barely dropped, right? Like it barely dropped and it recovered relatively quickly. So, the point is is, you know, yes, gold has had a pullback. We said we're likely going to have this pullback in 2026, but ultimately I think it's going to set up for the continuation for a move back up starting as we get later into 2026, but especially going into 2027.

That's my guess as to how this plays out. Now, I could be wrong, but and you might say, well, you know, gold's already dropped a ton, so you know, is it is it is it worth considering that that view might be wrong? And maybe it is. But when you look at at the bull market support band for gold and now remember the the bull market support band I use for gold is different than the ones that I use for Bitcoin. For gold I use the 20month simple moving average and the 21month exponential moving average EMA.

And if you look at the bull market that we had in the 2000s, you can see that gold would find support at this bull market support bin for the most part. Sometimes it would not quite tag it, which is why I don't generally recommend like waiting for it to tag. But you can see there was one fake out below it when we got the recession. But ultimately, gold recovered out of that recession much faster than stocks and continued to go higher into the end of the decade and early into the next decade.

Now, if you look at the massive bull market we had in the 1970s going into, you know, the early 1980s, you'll see it was also finding support kind of near that bullmark support band. And at one point, we did break down below it right as we had that recession, but it recovered. It went on to new all-time highs and it drastically outperformed the S&P 500. Now, the point I've tried to make is that in both of these massive bull markets for gold, they w

原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。