Benjamin Cowen：2026年比特币熊市与2018年结构相似

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to make making the comparison between the 2026 bare market to the 2018 bare market from a structural perspective. But from a liquidity and business cycle and flow perspective, it looks more like the digestion phase after the 2019 apathetic top. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse.com.

We also, as a reminder, have the ITC conference coming up in November. I know people need a lot of, you know, a lot of time to plan for something like that because it's an in-person event. It's not just log on to YouTube. Uh but if you are interested in going, as a reminder, it's taking place uh November 20th through the 22nd in Miami, Florida. And I I'm looking forward to having you guys there. And remember, one of the nice things about putting it in November, at least my idea was that ideally it'll be after the market cycle bottom for Bitcoin.

There's always a chance that it it won't be, but I tend to think it it likely will be. And if it's not, if the low is not in by then, it probably be really, really close to being in. And we're going to talk about that a little bit in this video. So, if you look at Bitcoin, you know, we're right around 6162K. From a structural perspective, this is a less volatile version of the 2018 bare market. Absolutely. And I know it sounds crazy and I I've been talking about this for the entire year and and a lot of people have faded it, but it honestly has played out.

Like I I don't really think there's been another view of of the bare market here that was any better than the 2018 comparison. Now, what's interesting about the 2018 comparison and how it continues to play out is that in 2018, Bitcoin found a low in February, and then a higher low in March, late March, early April. Same thing in 2026, a low in February, and then a higher low in late March, early April, and then a lower high in May, just like we got a lower high in May of 2026.

Now, we talked about this back in February that the low that we get in March or early April could in fact be a higher low instead of a lower low, but because it was a higher low, a lot of people had a field day with it. They got really bullish. They called me out. But then you look at it and you're like, well, look, it actually looks really similar to what happened in 2026 where we had those like four or five green weeks in a row just to go up to the bare market resistance band and get rejected. and we got rejected in May.

So notice you have the February low in 2018, the February low in 2026. You have the higher low in late March, early April. You have the higher low in early higher low in late March, early April 2026. So 2018, 2026, the similarity stands. You have the lower high in May of 2018. You have the lower high in May of 2026. And then in June, late June, early July of 2018, you sweep the February low just like you did in 2026.

So in a lot of ways, it's the same from a structural perspective, but from a business cycle perspective and and and that in from a more macro perspective, it's not 2018. It's more like the 2019 2019 20 sorry 2019 2020 era. So it's really interesting because a lot of people get hung up on the business cycle or the four-year cycle. But I think what a lot of people are missing is that they can both coexist. Some people will say that the four-year cycle is wrong and they'll then point to the business cycle, right?

They'll point to the ISM and and the M2 and all that stuff. And I'm not saying none of that stuff's important, but the reality is is all you had to follow was the four-year cycle. That stuff still can be important in terms of what does well, but it doesn't mean that Bitcoin escapes the four-year cycle just because the manufacturing sector is doing well. If the manufacturing sector is doing well, then I would think and what I did last year was I bought manufacturing stocks.

Just because I see the manufacturing sector doing well doesn't mean I go out and buy altcoins, right? I mean, like that that should be pretty obvious. So from this perspective, it's playing out. And when you look at the year-to- date ROI of it, right? When you look at the year-to- date ROI of Bitcoin in 2026 compared to 2018, you can see it's just a less volatile version of 2018. The low in February aligns. The higher low in late March, early April, again, align the lower high in May align.

You sweep the low in June, late late June, early July, that aligns as well. Even the smaller little move up and then the dip going into CPI, which is what we're getting right now. Guess what? That also aligns. It's all the same thing. The only question we have to ask ourselves is, do we get this at the end of the year? Now, a lot of people say that this will break, and you might be surprised for me to hear me say I agree with you.

I agree that this fractal will break. What I don't agree with is the people that spent the last 8 months saying it would break up until this point. And I still don't think it's going to break. I I think the most likely outcome is that you you're sort of you've been in this window of strength for a little bit and and a lot of times going into mid July there's a brief drop before it bounces again. But by late July, early August, you know, there's a good chance Bitcoin just gives these gains right back, whatever gains end up happening.

And I just want people to be aware of that. And it's not even just a 2018 thing. You know, I know in 2018, Bitcoin rallied in July and and then it came it gave all those gains back in August. But it also did the same thing in 2022 or yeah, 2022. Bitcoin rallied in July and then it gave all those gains back in in August going into early September. So, Bitcoin likes to do that, right? like it likes to get a little bounce in early July, put in a higher low in mid July around the CPI report, bounce again, but then give it all back by by August, mid August, late August.

That's what it tends to do. So, we got to be we got to be aware of that that this is what normally plays out for Bitcoin. And I want to be clear, I am not talking about altcoins. I know there's this joke that I'm not talking about your alt, but I I want to sort of issue a warning here about another warning the for the 20,000th time about altcoins. In 2018, when Bitcoin found a low in June and then rallied into July, it held 6K as support until November, but the altcoin market bled out a lot in August and September and October.

Like, it bled out a lot. And and if you overlay Bitcoin with altcoins, you'll see it. Look at total three over Bitcoin. Notice how in 2018, Bitcoin was holding support. What were altcoins doing? They were doing what they do. They they do best. They bleed, right? They were bleeding. They were bleeding even while Bitcoin was holding support at 6K. Now, where do I think this is going to break? I could be wrong, but my guess is that we won't have to wait until the end of December for the low.

I would think it would occur sooner than that. Maybe like late September, early October seems about right. And the reason I say that is because if you look at the ROI, right, from the low and you measure it out to the next low, that would put you in like late September, early October. So, the idea of having to wait to December would imply that this bare market will go on a lot longer than the last two. And I don't I'm not inclined to believe that that's going to happen.

Now, there's one example where it did last a little bit longer. If you look at 2014, 2013, 2014, the bare market actually started in late November and didn't end until early January. So, if the bare market were to go 134 months, then I guess Bitcoin could bottom in December instead. But that is not my base case. I think that the people are right that the fractal of the year-to- date ROI will l

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