通胀报告对比特币的影响分析

Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the macroverse. Today, we're going to talk about the most recent inflation report and talk about the ramifications for Bitcoin. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. And as a reminder, I look forward to seeing you guys at the first ITC conference in Miami uh November 20th through the 22nd.

Links in the description below. We just got the recent inflation report. And I don't know if you guys remember, but a few weeks ago, we talked about how what would likely happen for Bitcoin is that we would find a low late June or early July. We would then rally and then sell off in the mid-July around the CPI report, but that the CPI report would likely come in a lot cooler than expected, and then that would sort of fuel the rally a little bit longer, maybe into like late July, even as late as like early to mid-August.

And one of the things we talked about with that is that you don't actually need a narrative for it. Like you can see that's exactly how it played out in 2018. We set a low in in late June, early July. We got a little bit of a rally, sold off in the mid-July, got a larger rally, and then gave it all back in August and going into September. So, it it it's a pattern we have seen before. And I know that that's sort of the narrative being assigned, but look, we've seen this before.

You know, we we've seen essentially the same thing. And so, when you look at where the headline inflation came in at, it came in at 3.5. Last month, it was 4.2. Consensus was like 3.8 or 3.9. So, here we are, coming in below expectations, and the market likes it. Now, core inflation came in at 2.6, and the forecast was higher, right? 2.8, 2.9, and last month it was 2.9. So, we've seen inflation come back down a little bit.

Bitcoin in the short term is is clearly liking that. But, remember from a seasonality perspective, this is what usually happens. It It really is. Um if you were to go look at at monthly returns for Bitcoin, right? Monthly returns for Bitcoin the last couple of mid-term years, I mean Bitcoin's up 10% this this July already. 2022, they went up 20%. 20 2018, it went up almost 40%. So, what you're seeing right now with Bitcoin is still what it normally does.

And the argument is that look, we saw we saw this play out before. Like we saw how in 2018 Bitcoin set a February low and then swept the low in late June, early July, just like it did in 2026. And then the the rejection over here was in May off the bear market resistance band. So, it's all the same thing. And my guess is that like last in 2018, as Bitcoin kind of kept going back up, it just kept getting rejected by the bear market resistance band.

It squeezed and then forced a direction. This time we're doing the same thing. Like we're we're basically squeezing here and it's going to force Bitcoin to decide, all right, which way is it actually going to break? And so Bitcoin is getting squeezed between the 200-week moving average and the bear market resistance band. So, if you were to kind of extend these out, what I would what I would guess would happen with Bitcoin, you know, could maybe come back up to the bear market resistance band, come back down, and then you get your resolution like between the August to, you know, sort of Q4 time frame in line with what we saw in prior cycles.

Now, if you look at the inflation rate year-over-year, I mean you can see that is a nice pullback, right? By inflation. That is a nice drop. Um it's a very welcome drop. A lot of people are are very tired from price increases. Obviously, I am. I know a lot of other people are as well. If you look at the core inflation chart, you can see that it still been generally dropping. So that's good to see. What I'd like to take a look at is the inflation rate year-over-year per category.

Okay, so when we look at category, we can figure out like where where is this drop coming from? Again, but they're all they're weighted differently. So here's headline inflation. You can see it's come back down. Look at food and beverage. All right, so if you look at food and beverage, that dropped not a lot, but it dropped a little. If you look at at housing, that had a pretty substantial drop. And remember, housing accounts for like 2/3 of it when weighted, I believe.

Uh if you look at apparel, that also dropped. Transportation dropped, but honestly pretty positive. Uh and and that's been one of the things that has been highly negative at different points during this business cycle. Uh if you look at medical care, that also dropped. Recreation actually went up. Education and communication was negative. Other goods and services also dropped. So, a lot of things dropped and the things that contribute a lot to CPI like housing dropped considerably.

And if you look at the inflation rate year-over-year contribution per category, cuz remember they're weighted differently, you can see what I'm talking about. All right, so if you look at headline inflation, now if you look at food and beverage, you know, food and beverage going down impacted it. But look at housing. You see how housing had had a had a much lar- had had a fairly substantial impact on on the inflation rate.

Uh transportation also had a big had a big effect, right? Last month 1.5 uh for that contribution. This month it was only one. And that was because it while it was inflationary, it wasn't as inflationary. So, the stars have aligned for the inflation report. Uh Bitcoin has certainly liked it in the short term. Core inflation looks fine as well. I guess the one thing to consider though is down the line you are starting to see oil get a little bit of a bounce here.

Now, maybe it's just back testing. Hopefully it is. I don't I don't necessarily want oil to go to go too much higher because that would I mean again it would just make the inflation problem worse, but this is you know this is something to watch and and and a lot of times when you get these patterns like this, oil will come down, go back up, and then come back down. And if the low is in then, then it'll run after that.

So, I would I would watch for for something like that to play out in the coming weeks. That's a a very common pattern that you'll see in in a lot of different markets, but I think for now Bitcoin is still kind of tracking what it normally does in midterm years. And and despite all the mental gymnastics uh from from the crowds the July rally happened anyways, you know, and and it's important to recognize that 4-year cycles do not I mean the bear markets are not just down only just like the bull markets are not just up only.

You have a bear market. You have countertrend rallies. Bitcoin swept below exactly when it swept below in in 2018. And in 2018, the next window of weakness did not really occur until we got into August. Late July, early August. In fact, in 2018, Bitcoin had this nice little rally in April kind of like what we just got a couple of months ago, and then it had another smaller rally in in sort of July. So, I I would argue that's where Bitcoin is right now, right?

Like we had the larger rally earlier. Right? We already had the the the the larger rally that occurred. Now we're probably in a smaller one that could very well again take us to the bear market resistance span and lead us to that ultimate decision as to which way this thing is going to break. Again, if it breaks down, it would be in line with market cycle theory, and then you would have a low late in the year which would then align to the normal market cycle bottom.

If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and again check out the first ITC conference coming to you in Miami in late November. Links in the description below. Thank you guys for tuning in and I'll see you next time. Bye.