银行股财报季前技术面稳固，美联储加息概率低

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And as always on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this hour with stocks little changed heading into this morning's data and a ton of bank earnings. Chris Veronus Bed Strategus writing the following with 99% of banks above the 200 day average. The group kicks off the 2Q earning season on solid technical footing. Chris joins us now for more. Chris, good morning. Good to see you.

Great to be here, John.

Is that what your focus is on this morning? Because we've got CPI, we've got Fed Share Wash. Is it earnings front and center?

Yeah, I think this is going to start to take some of the attention away both from the central bank and from Iran here. And you know, our kind of main point here is when you look at kind of the setup of the bank stocks into earning season, they are on very sound footing. Are they overbought in the near-term? Yeah, they probably are. I don't particularly care because the underlying trends are so firm. These are still the relative leaders. after frankly what was a pretty funky you know March April period the banks have really since about midmay um come back and reclaim the bar of leadership and you see it not just domestically it's true in Europe it's true in Japan even with JGB yields up it's true uh in Japan that these global banks continue to act really really well so I think it's difficult to get kind of too worked up about financial conditions here when financial stocks are still in pretty good shape

well let's talk about the US banks and the kind of exposure you want right now so let's say on the far side you've got a pure plan cap capital markets and on this side is a pure play on Main Street. The closer you are to this side as a general rule of thumb so far this year, the best you've done in terms of Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, those stocks have been flying. Where's the sweet spot now?

So that's now generally been true for about 2 years. You look at like when Morgan Stanley and Goldman broke out, it was probably back in late 24, early 25. So they've really have carried the flag of leadership the entire time. I I I think what's maybe a little unappreciated though, particularly when you go down the cap scale, there are so many regional and small banks that are acting great here that are in good long-term uptrends that have just finally broken out to new multi-year highs.

So, um it's more than just the capital market stocks, which clearly there's been a story there with the IPO boom, but it's when you start to migrate down the cap scale, you do get some exposure and some very good charts uh in these small and midcap banks.

Just to build on what John's talking about, it's almost Main Street versus Wall Street. You've got Wells Fargo on one side of the extreme and you got Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on this side of the extreme. And it seems like we've seen the uh the fees that potentially are coming from some of these IPOs, some of these issuances. Is it going to broaden out where we start to see true robust borrowing and lending from consumers and the broader economy?

To the degree to it extends to consumers, I'm unsure. I would say this, when you look at the credit landscape and put aside the private credit names for a minute, we can talk about that. But public credit conditions are still extremely benign here. here. I mean, double B spreads yesterday made new cycle tights. That's true here. It's true in Europe uh as well. So, I think again with bank stocks generally still went up trend across uh the world.

Credit conditions pretty benign. I I think it's premature to get too worked up or too bearish here. Listen, I recognize where we are seasonally. You can get a correction here for any reason into August, into September. We've seen that historically, but I think the underpinnings of this market are still in decent condition. One big anxiety right now in markets is how long can this last? This incredible issuance boom, this incredible financing condition for anything related to AI and we've gotten the sense that maybe in the margins is starting to come back a little bit.

Do you expect to get a sense of that the sort of forward pipeline or just whether it's starting to close. So Lisa, our our kind of big view this year is that there is some interest rate out there where bonds simply become more competitive to stocks and I just don't think we have found that interest rate yet. So to answer your question, when does kind of the the capital markets boom end? I I think it's when we find a bond yield that is meaningfully higher than where yields are today.

We learned a couple weeks ago, I think the highs were 467 on 10s. That's not the level. It's some level meaningfully higher. People forget, you know, go back to 1999 when you're in that NASDAQ meltdown. You know, bond yields that year went from 4 to 7 in the US. So, it typically takes a yield so much higher than the consensus believes to truly be competitive. So, I think we're in this environment where money is just slloshing around from group to group to group, but it's very reluctant to leave the asset class of equities.

Are you calling for 7% 10%? No, I'm just saying that it it takes a yield much higher than what the consensus believes is right in front of him. I don't think 461 this morning is that yield that ends this kind of 17-year bull market that we've been in.

Is July 29th the first rate hike?

Uh I I think not. Um I don't think we get a rate hike in calendar year 2026. I'll give you three things to think about. Number one, I think is the one we all know. Look at forward inflation expectations. They're they're relatively anchored uh by any metric whether they're five year five year forwards or even just five year forwards.

Is that because the market is priced for hikes?

I well played. Um listen, I think the the shift in narrative this year has been so dramatic. We got to get back to center here a little bit. Let's think about some of the data. Number one, PMI right now is 53 and a half. Fed doesn't hike from there. Just look historically. That's not where your majority of hikes come from. The 3-month average on payrolls right now is about 125K. If you look at a distribution of Fed action when the 3-month average of payrolls is in that 150 range, the likelihood of a hike any point over the next 6 months is less than 20%.

So whether it's the payroll data, whether it's the PMI data, I think the likelihood that we get this Fed in particular moving to hikes in 26 is low. reserve the right to change the opinion should the facts on the ground change as always but that's kind of the job of what we do. Um, I'd be betting no hike here.

Even though Governor Waller yesterday made it very clear he's very concerned about inflation and also talked about he doesn't want to repeat the mistakes of the past.

Wall not the chair and I think we all need to come to this realization. The chair is the chair. Let's get back to that mentality. The chair is the chair. I think as we've seen with these task forces, we're going to get less and less communication from regional Fed presidents, Fed governors. So, I'm more inclined to kind of discount what Waller said yesterday. Um, I think that at the end of the day, the likelihood this Fed goes in 26 uh is still low.

That's how we're positioned. That's how we're thinking about.

It's interesting you don't think the center of power of the Federal Reserve has shifted somewhat because I've witnessed the committee vote down of a chair before.

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