Polymarket加密涨跌市场设计缺陷：零和博弈与流动性流失

Polymarket's crypto up-down markets are one example of how a poorly designed market can create adverse externalities by incentivizing zero-sum and negative-sum behavior.

When up-down markets first started, they had much longer durations. Traders treated the underlying asset price as an exogenous oracle. Many early traders ran geometric Brownian motion models on the underlying assets.

As Polymarket created shorter-duration markets and increased liquidity incentives, there was more incentive to manipulate the underlying and capture the profits from the derivative up-down market.

Total Polymarket crypto volume isn't growing and is the same absolute value as it was more than six months ago. Based on on-chain address analysis, there's sufficient evidence to suggest that these markets are removing liquidity and users from the system.