特朗普宣布停火结束，地缘风险推高押注

ALPHA ALERT, 20x OPPORTUNITY ALERT:

Trump has announced that the ceasefire is over.

On the surface it sounds like more empty words from The man but theres way more to it than it seems.

It is my understand that israel and the US have used the funerals in Iran to build a new database for the next decapitation strike. Once the mossad has you tagged,it doesnt matter if you go back to your bunker they can get you.

From Iran perspective, the principal reason for signing the MOU was removing the military threat.

By trump announcing the ceasefire is over, Qatar.turkey and pakistan cant vouch that the US that they wont order a new decapitation strike on the IRGC.

The decapitation strike threat is genuinely back while the MOU is technically dead.

Trump wants Iran to fully open the strait.

The IRGC has a decision to make, either risk getting decapitated again in the next week or playing nice and reopening the strait to buy time.

Fun fact is Iran can fully reopen the strait for 1 or 2 weeks (which would resolve the market to Y)and close it again after. it doesnt really cost them anything long term.

With the latest development , I find those 2 markets extremely underpriced and next few days should be really interesting:

Remember whos giving you all the insight on geopolitics here: market in comment.