高盛报告：AI或取代1500万岗位，但不会造成大规模失业

Goldman Sachs new report "An AI Job Apocalypse?"

Says AI could displace 15mn workers, but not cause mass unemployment.

Estimates AI could lift productivity and GDP by 15% after full adoption.

The clearest pressure sits in customer support, back-office work, claims, billing, and entry-level tasks.

Goldman’s own labor model finds a small current drag of 16K jobs monthly. Younger workers look more exposed because AI can absorb the basic tasks that teach judgment.

College graduates are not collapsing yet, but their industries adopt AI faster than others.

Joseph Briggs, GS global economists still expects more than 9% of workers to face displacement across 10 years.

MIT professor Daron Acemoglu is more cautious, expecting 2-4% job losses across 5 years. His concern is that current AI replaces routine office tasks more often than it supports workers.

Neil Thompson of MIT adds a missing filter: capability does not mean reliability, access, or cheap deployment. A chatbot can answer broadly, but businesses need accuracy, private data, and repeatable workflows.