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Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio news. This is Bloomberg Daybreak weekend. [music] Our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, a look at the impact of [music] artificial intelligence on the labor force. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington.

I'm Caroline Hepker here in London where we're looking ahead [music] to a key NATO summit in Turkey. Nathan,

I'm Doug Krer looking at whether price pressures in China's economy are sustainable. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg [music] 991 Washington DC, Bloomberg 929 Boston, DAB Digital Radio London, SiriusXM121, and around the world on Bloomberg radio.com and the Bloomberg Business App. Good [music] day to you. I'm Nathan Hagar. We begin today's program with a look at the impact of artificial intelligence in the US labor force and it's still early days in the debate over how much this rapidly developing technology will disrupt the job market but we are starting to see the impact in the economic data.

Bloomberg's Maya Pash has been following this and is here with me now. So great to speak with you Maya on the Daybreak weekend program. So where are we seeing AI show up in the data? Well, we're starting to see the effects in finance and information, which continue to be a drag of around 25,000 jobs on total hiring growth in the US. Um, the financial activities sector is a concerning weak spot. It's still down around 82,000 jobs over the last 6 months, while information posted another weak month as well at 68,000 jobs um decline over 6 months.

Um, this month's jobs report showed a weaker labor market for a variety of reasons, including a downturn in leisure and hospitality, but the underlying story in finance and tech remains unchanged, which is that there are two sectors that will be particularly affected by AI because of their workforce composition and the nature of their tasks. Yeah, it's really interesting to hear this start to show up when we've heard from so many uh bank CEOs talking about using artificial intelligence to uh sort of get rid of some of those as they at least one CEO put it lower level human capital.

Uh so is this the start of a trend? Can we say that at this point?

You could say that. Um I think you can say this particularly in the finance sector which is about three times of the information sector and a workforce that comprises a lot of low paid and routine administrative work. Um we found that around 25% of roles in financial activities are administrative ones. Customer service representatives, insurance claims processors, loans processing and that sort of thing. These are exactly the kinds of jobs that the BLS expects AI to automate first.

So, we're expecting a broader trend line over the years.

And does this sort of feed into what we saw in the latest non-farm payrolls report in terms of the the downward revisions to the prior months? Is that what's showing up in uh financials and IT as well?

Absolutely. So, the revision story was more in other sectors, especially in leisure and hospitality. Um, our financial activities and information chart didn't change much. um the revisions weren't a particularly large factor in the underlying trend of job losses.

So what's the trend line? Can we talk about a trend line at this point about where AI disruption could go from here?

Yeah, absolutely. Um well, there's a real question, right? Um and we have to sort of break it down by sector. In the information sector, um you have jobs like software engineers and computer programmers that make up around 15% of employment and are on the higher paid side at around $160 $160,000 annually. These are jobs that might actually be augmented by AI. Um while you might have sort of lower level layoffs, it remains a little bit unclear and difficult to measure whether um these kinds of roles will be augmented and made more valuable and more productive because of advancements in AI or whether they'll be automated away.

Where we actually are expecting to see a larger trend is in these sort of administrative and office roles. insurance um within the financial activities category posted a large decline in May. Um we're expecting sort of more uh lower level and and administrative jobs in the financial activities sector to see a decline and then of course in entry- level jobs as well.

One of the big promises of artificial intelligence from the technologies boosters is that for all the jobs that might be disrupted by the technology, there are going to be new ones to take their places. Are we starting to see that in the data at this point or is it still too early yet?

It's a little early to tell. And one thing I would also add is that in terms of these overall headcount reductions, it's also hard to tell whether the headcount reductions are a result of jobs themselves being automated or a result of sort of a reallocation of resources. What I mean by that is, you know, companies invest across finance and technology, investing in AI and making capex investments at huge rates and so having to cut labor costs as a result.

That's not necessarily the same thing as these jobs being automated away. So I think that there's an important distinction to be made there. And then in terms of, you know, new job creations, the best place to see that is ongoing gains in non-residential construction. Other data out this week showed construction spending on data centers continues to be strong. In the information sector, you might see a variety of AI adjacent roles um start to pop up, but overall it's still a little early to tell.

And you know technology and models are changing so fast that really um the trend line could change quite significantly.

All right. So we've been talking about the disruption to particularly financial services and IT. What other sectors are you looking for uh going forward for potential vulnerabilities?

We're seeing um a little bit of decline in professional and business services particularly in subcategories like accounting, consulting and advertising. We saw strength this month in professiona

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