中国AGI差距与领域知识壁垒的争论

The big (possibly wrong) argument against this is that China is still behind in tons of fields despite, frankly, having just obscenely more smart people in them, to the point you can think of it as ≈2 years of a gap in AGI. How many IQ-point-years do you think went into ASML's EUV? Likely LESS than what they're throwing at research every year now. And yet. Domain knowledge is deep, expensive and slow to acquire. What "iterated chip designs"? You think Jensen will hand his moat over to Anthropic and pay for Claude tokens on the way? Rationalists routinely assume the supreme power of first-principles thinking, Yud made a lot of noise about how AlphaZero rendered human Go expertise obsolete. Between learned human heuristics dulled with lossy compression into explicit transferable knowledge for accelerating generational gain, and an end to end learned heuristic that scales with available compute, it's no wonder the latter wins. But there's a difference between naturally self-contained logical domains that humans tile over with heuristics because that's all we meat-brains can do, and inherently deep and wide domains the dynamics of which are very far removed from their underlying generative process; and we don't know exactly where the boundary lies for any particular field. We can make an educated guess, however. I'd say that I wouldn't be surprised if Gemini Flash tier model that ingests Google's TPU development data and software will do better at "iterated chip design" than Claude Fable despite the latter's crushing intellect and more profound understanding of electrical engineering as publicly known. And GLM 5.2 level Nemotron customized by Nvidia will likely do better still. This is not an academic debate; this is a question of the extent to which incumbents will allow frontier labs to convert their current profits into a lasting vice grip on the economy and eventual elimination of said incumbents, to improve their own reports for the next few quarters. If they have any business sense, they'll aspire to keep this extent limited.