AI杠杆ETF放大芯片股波动，美国提议北约分层，钨矿预测战争

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg Daybreak podcast. Good morning. It's Thursday the 2nd of July. I'm Caroline Hepker in London

and I'm Steven Carol in Brussels. Coming up today, as chip stocks drop once again, we have an exclusive report on the leveraged AI bet that's grown so large it's moving global markets. The United States floats the idea of a NATO alliance where those who spend more get more.

Plus, the strangely accurate indicator of global conflict. Why a remote tungsten mine that predicts major wars is opening again.

Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

A global sell-off in chip stocks is rippling through Asian markets, reviving concerns that the AI rally has gone too far too fast. South Korea's Cosby, which is heavily exposed to the sector, fell as much as 7% before recovering some losses. The moves come as Bloomberg has learned that Meta is planning a new cloud business that will sell AI computing capacity, raising fresh concerns that the industry may have overbuilt.

Here's Mandep Singh, head of technology research at Bloomberg Intelligence. They were under pressure with that $150 billion of capex spend to show ROI and we know they don't have a frontier model like anthropic and open AI and there was talk about agentic AI being that product but looks like they have pivoted towards selling compute like SpaceX did you know right before their IPO. Mandep Singh from Bloomberg Intelligence.

The volatility in AI stocks comes as Bloomberg has highlighted the rapid rise of a leveraged ETF tied to South Korean chipmaker SKH highinex. Analysts say the fund has grown so large so quickly that it's amplifying swings in both the stock and the broader Cosby. It's being reported that Open AI has begun discussions about giving the US government a 5% stake in the Chad GPT developer. According to the Financial Times, CEO Sam Alman has proposed that the US government take stakes in America's leading AI firms.

The reporting suggests that the proposal could include anthropic as well as listed AI leaders Google and Meta, although it's unclear whether those companies would support the idea. The FT says that Altman believes giving the public a stake in his company is the best way to share in the economic upside of the AI boom. The United States has suggested giving greater benefits to NATO countries that spend more on defense.

The prospect of a two-tier alliance was raised by the US ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, ahead of the summit in Turkey next week. Whitaker told reporters that countries contributing more to the alliance should receive additional benefits. Meanwhile, Germany's Chancellor Friedick Mertz said yesterday that their increase in defense spending has nothing to do with American pressure. In recent years, we have done too little for our own security.

We are now making up for that. However, we are not doing this to meet a numerical target set by the American president, but rather in our own interest. Germany's Fried Mer speaking through a translator. The comments come as the United States begins a six-month review of its military presence in Europe. That's fueled expectations of further troop reductions after the withdrawal of 5,000 US personnel from the continent.

Well, German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz's coalition has reached an agreement on a set of economic reforms. Bloomberg understands that the package includes changes to the country's pension system, labor market, and income tax. Sources say the party leaders held a meeting yesterday with a press conference due at 9:00 a.m. local time today by Mertz's Christian Democratic Union. The chancellory, the finance ministry, and a press spokesperson for the CDU and SPD did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Bank of England governor says it's too early to consider interest rate cuts. Andrew Bailey's warning households are yet to feel the full effect of the Iran war.

There was an expectation that we would cut rates this year. That's not unreasonable in the context of the softening economy. You know, that's off that was that was off the table in March. you know, is is off the table at the moment.

Andrew Bailey speaking at the ECB forum of central bankers in CRA and Portugal. Economists now expect UK inflation to peak at a much lower level than the one envisaged by the bank in April. US President Donald Trump says that negotiators have made progress in indirect talks with Iran, but Trump didn't specify what breakthroughs may have been made, and the Wall Street Journal reported the US leader had privately weighed returning to allout war.

Bloomberg's James Warog has more on how the conflict is affecting the wider region.

The number of business jets taking off from the Middle East is down by 30%. That's according to Wing X's aviation data from the date the war started through to the end of June. Their analysts say as long as the war goes on, the Middle East can likely expect less traffic. It's the latest sign both executives and the mega wealthy are steering clear of the region due to the tensions in London. James Walco, Bloomberg Radio.

England have come from behind to book their place in the last 16 of the World Cup with a spluttering 2-1 win over the Democratic Republic of Congo. Captain Harry Kane was once again the hero on the night, scoring both goals for England. The three lines will play co-host Mexico in the next round. Kane says it'll be a massive game. Mexico in Mexico is as big as it gets. Maybe in the in the World Cup, the atmosphere is going to be uh incredible.

It's going to be tough for many different reasons, but ultimately this is, you know, if you want to be world champions, you have to go through tough games and, you know, two good teams, Mexico at home. Uh so we have to be have to be ready, but for now, I just want to enjoy this moment. Hurricane Kane's brace means he's now moved past Pelle's World Cup tally of 12 goals. Elsewhere, Belgium came from two goals down to beat Sagal 3-2 in extra time in Seattle.

Spain, who are one of the tournament favorites, take on Austria in Los Angeles tonight.

Yeah, of course, even I'm into the football now when it comes to England playing, but they'll be at 7,000 ft altitude when they go to play in Mexico, which is really, really tough on the body. Right, let's think about the markets this morning. sell off in semiconductor stocks spreading to the Cosby which at the moment is down by 4.2%. It did slump as much as 7% this morning. So the concerns again rekindled about the AI stock rally that we've seen.

Looking at stock futures for the US, we're still in the green. So are Euro stocks 50 futures. In terms of oil prices, you've again seen some uh lows. So Brent crude futures trading at $7087 down 1%. We're back down to lows that we saw in February. Treasuries holding on to losses. Kevin Walsh, Fed chair talking about price risks having come down in recent weeks. Uh looking at 10-year Treasury yields this morning. They look to be steady at 4.48%.

So up barely a basis point this morning. Those are the markets.

In a moment, we'll bring you more on why chip stocks are seeing such big price swings recently. Plus, how a remote mine in Australia has become a predictor of major wars. There's another story that caught our eye this morning on one of those rebrands which might make some of us feel our age a bit. The British high street bank Halifax is to disappear with branches and accounts being rebranded as Lloyds by the end of next year.

Lloyds has owned Halifax since 2009 and says very little will change for customers. There'll be no job cuts or further branch closers as part of this announcement as well. But it does mean the end of a 173year-old brand. There's some great nuggets in Halifax's history as well. first mortgage was for £121 uh issued in the 1800s and in 1928 it was as a building society it was the largest building society in the world with assets of 47

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