SEC 投资管理部主任谈预测市场 ETF 审批
Will the SEC Approve Prediction Market ETFs This Year? | Trillions
SEC 高官罕见公开讨论预测市场 ETF 审批立场,对加密和金融创新监管有重大信号意义,建议从业者密切关注后续政策动向。
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Welcome to Trillions. I'm Joel Weber.
And I'm Eric Valis.
Eric, you've been on vacation, but while you were off, you did a little leg work, including organizing today's interview. And I'm really excited to say we have another person from the Security and Exchange Commission this time. Brian Daly is going to be joining us. He's the director of the Division of Investment Management.
Yeah. No, this is a big interview. It's tough to get people from the SEC to talk at all, let alone come on a podcast. And so, yeah, I was off and I I was the call came in. And I was on one of those bikes and there's a thing called a co-pilot which is the bike on the on the back of the bike which your little kid can ride.
Yeah.
And we had stopped at the Circle K. That's like a Waw Wa 7-Eleven in the south. And got some water. It's hot there. I was in Florida in the panhandle anyway. And but this was important enough to take a break because this is a big issue. The SEC is looking at and really maybe concerned about novel ETFs. The prediction market ETFs are really I think what got this going and as you know we had Matt Hogan on from Bitwise who uh they had one of the prediction market ETFs filed.
We had a great podcast with him. It kind of turned me a little bit into how they are could be useful for the market but they are complicated and it is a Pandora's box you could open. So the SEC kind of like told them don't launch yet. Let us look at them. And so they're looking at not just those but others. And let's face it we use this phrase all the time. No, no market for old analysts.
Yeah,
cuz there's some crazy stuff coming out and it can seem like the market has gone wild and I think this is a great time to hear from the regulators about what they're thinking when they see all these launches and all these filings.
Also joining us, Lydia Beayud. She's in Washington DC where she's the SEC and CFTC reporter for News. This time on Trillians, Brian Dailyaly. Brian, Lydia, welcome to Trillians.
Thanks for having us.
Thank you.
Okay, Brian, I'm gonna start with you. We've had Hester Purse on on occasion. This is the first time we've had somebody else from the SEC on. So, so welcome and we're really excited to um speak with you. I'm I'm curious, you're new at the SEC, relatively new. You started about a year ago, July 2025. How is the Securities and Exchange Committee different now than the one that directly preceded you? I think what we're focused on from top down from the administration through the chairman through us is being very pro- innovation.
We are embracing innovation. That's like our touchstone. But we also want to make sure that as we do that, we do it in a way that ensures that the retail investor is still given enough information to make intelligent decisions. If you go up to the chairman's office, you'll see on the wall, and you'll see it in a lot of different places in the SEC, but particularly right outside the chairman's office, there's a quote says, "We are the investor's advocate."
And that's a reminder every day when the chairman goes in, he sees it. Every time any of us goes in go in to see the chairman, we see it.
Yeah. No, I I noticed this because we had Esther Pur on when Biden was president and we had her on when Trump was president and two different regimes there, but she was consistent. She's always been I consider libertarian but pro- innovation I think might be a better way to put it. She was for the Bitcoin ETFs launching out sooner than they did. They took 10 and a half or 10 11 years to be approved. Look, I understand where she's coming from.
The ETF in particular is really good. This structure has proven itself time and again. Gold, bonds, Bitcoin, all this stuff was doubted. The ETF seems to be able to handle it. And so I've become very liberal. I'm like, you could probably put Mickey Manel rookie cards into an ETF and the market makers would figure out how to make a market in it and it would probably work. I've always thought it's the best way to not get ripped off in investing is ETFs pound-for-pound.
And so I I'm in tune with that as a analyst, but
he's talking his book here. Did you notice like an ETF analyst telling you how great ETFs are?
Yeah. I mean, well, the evidence is there, but you're right. the market is so thriving that they are now throwing a lot of spaghetti at the wall. And so where is that line? Obviously that line moves sometimes, but it seems like prediction markets seem to be a touchstone. Like they seem to be like maybe the line is there. I will say working with all of our commissioners, but especially Commissioner Pur is like just wonderful.
It's a real fringe benefit to the job to really be able to go in talk with somebody who is so thoughtful, so forward-looking, and such a genuinely good person. So, if that's the caliber of person we have at the SEC, I think the investing public should feel good about that. on the merits of what you're talking about or the sub the substance would it be okay if I took a second to walk through what we actually do with these ETFs because I think there's a lot of misconception about that out there
as in when the filing comes in and it's like okay
how yeah because I do I do see and hear in the press a lot of people talk about the SEC approved this ETF and that's not exactly what we do
and
okay so filing comes in what happens
so filing comes in comes in through Edgar so it gets routed to our team. And what we did in 2019, we had this new rule came out, 611. And what we did was we took a process that prior to 2019 had been iterative and staff driven. Every ETF that came out had to get its own specific order. The staff had a role in that. Things got slow, things got hung up.
It's like a ticket sort of and that the ticket would wind its way through.
It was it was sort of that and and individual people had to push it through and and complete it. So yes, there was a task involved. So 611 changes all of that. When a filing comes in now, it comes in with a sell by date. So it comes in with a presumptive in most cases 75day effectiveness. So an effectiveness means if you think about an ETF going to market, we call it a fund IPO sometimes. So it's a fund IPO and we do thousands of them, right?
We have thousands of them go through. Uh last year we hit 2600 filings coming in, 1,000 and change actually listed. Right? This year we have 1,800 filings in so far year to date. Go back to 2019, there were 332 new ETFs that hit the market. So this has been it's more than an order of magnitude. And the so it goes through the process. The team looks at it and again the system is set up so that 75 days from it coming in if nothing else happened there were no other fingers on the scale
it goes live.
It goes live. That doesn't happen all that often particularly with new things because what happens there is it gets routed to our staff and our staff includes lawyers and accountants and a few other folks who look at it and these are people who the entire division we call it Dreo disclosure review and accounting office but the DRO team reviews the filing and then has in a good system an iterative and constructive discussion with the sponsor and we look at the disclosure because that's our role in this. were generally disclosure reviewers and they look at it from three different points of view.
They come at it with is this just well written. The second part is they then look at it and say okay as an experienced reviewer somebody who has seen hundreds of thousands of ETFs I know if this is an orange or a tangerine or an apple and they can actually help the sponsor and say okay here's how similar products or product products that are not so similar but analogous. Here's how they're doing it. Maybe you should look at that.
And the third function they they uh carry out is they go through and they look for pote
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