比特币恐慌指标全面触发，链上数据暗示卖方力竭

Right now, your timeline is probably a graveyard. Everyone's screaming the same three words. Crypto is dead. [music] Bitcoin is down 16% on the month, down nearly 25% on the year, and is sitting 15% below its 200 day moving average at around $65,000. The fear and greed index touched single [music] digits twice this month. ETF money fled in a 13-day stampede. [music] And the pain, folks, is absolutely real. But here's what nobody screaming into the void wants to admit.

Feelings aren't signals. While the timeline cries, the actual onchain data is quietly flashing something the doomers refuse to look at. The people who successfully bought the last three bottoms did it by reading five very specific [music] charts. So today, I'm going to walk you through exactly why sellers may be running out of ammo, lay out the honest case that we could still bleed lower, and show you the five signals that decide whether this is the floor [music] or just a ledge.

My name is Louis and you're watching the Coin Bureau. Now, before we touch a single indicator, you need the lay of the land. Bitcoin is at roughly $65,000 at the time of filming, sitting roughly 15% beneath its 200-day simple moving average. For those unfamiliar, the 200-day moving average is the line that many traders use to separate a healthy market from a broken one. Below it, the trend is officially considered damaged.

The daily RSI sits at around 42, soft, but not yet screaming oversold. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up almost 10% on the year, hoovering up the speculative capital that used to flow into crypto. So, it certainly seems that right now is a riskoff environment where the establishment is bored of us, which is exactly the backdrop these historical bottom signals tend to appear in. And the first one is the foundation everything else sits on.

Let me introduce you to the MVRV Zcore. It sounds like a robot, but the idea is dead simple. Put simply, it measures the gap between what the entire Bitcoin network is worth right now and what every coin on it last actually changed hands for. That second number is called the realized price. Think of it as the average price every holder on Earth paid for their Bitcoin. Right now, that realized price sits around $53,600.

So when the zcore is high and positive, the average holder is sitting on fat gains and the market is frothy and dangerous. When it drops towards zero or below, the average holder is barely breaking even or underwater. And historically, that exact zone of maximum pain is where the best long-term entries have appeared. Now, here's where I have to be straight with you. The Zcore sits around 0.24 24 to 0.36 today. That's compressing hard, well below the bullphase levels of last year.

Every generational bottom we can point to negative first December 2018 when Bitcoin scraped $3,200, the score hit roughly -0.65. The co crash in March 2020 around -0.5. The FTX collapsed in November 2022 somewhere between minus0.4 and minus0.5. The score is currently approaching the accumulation zone which identifies a broader window of opportunity. Now hold that thought because it becomes very important later. For now, the foundation is clearly tilting towards accumulation territory, which brings us neatly to the emotional half of this story.

You've heard the old line a thousand times. be greedy when others are fearful. It gets thrown around so much it's basically wallpaper at this point, but almost nobody explains why it actually works. The crypto fear and greed index runs from 0 to 100. Anything below 25 is extreme fear. This month, it touched 8 to 9 and even after a small bounce, it's still parked deep in the red around 12 to 23. The market has now been stuck in extreme fear for over 2 weeks, crashing from greed territory near 52 in late May to sing readings by early June with the index hitting a 2026 low of 11 on June 3rd.

And here's the actual mechanical reason that this matters. Extreme fear means the people who were willing to sell at these prices have by and large already sold. The paper hands who panic at the first 20% draw down are gone. Their coins have moved to buyers with higher conviction. Now think about what that does to the order book. When sellers are exhausted, the sell side gets thin. So any positive catalysts, even a mild one, hits a market where buyers only need to absorb a trickle of supply.

Small buy pressure outsized move. That's the asymmetry. The downside gets capped because the motivated sellers are spent while the upside can be violent. This is simply human psychology repeating itself. Late 2018, singledigit fear. Bitcoin around $3,200 followed by a roughly 300% rally to $13,000 by the next summer. March 2020, fear in the single digits, the launchpad for a multi-year bull run. November 2022, the FDX bottom, peak fear, then a recovery to $30,000 plus within months.

As one analyst put it, the moment it feels most rational to sell is historically the moment that's rewarded buying. But sentiment alone is soft. So, let's go one layer deeper and find the hard onchain proof that the weak hands are actually clearing out. This is where it gets uncomfortable in a good way. When a holder sells coins for less than they paid, that loss becomes real, recorded on chain forever. We could literally watch it happen.

And when realized losses spike, it means that the dominant activity in the market is people selling at a loss. That's the textbook definition of capitulation. Look at the numbers. On February 5th this year, Bitcoin saw a single day realized loss event of $3.2 2 billion has dropped from 70,000 towards 60,000. That actually surpassed the Teral Luna collapse's 2.7 billion peak back in 2022. Long-term holders have eaten around $2.4 billion in losses.

And here is the one that really matters. As of early June, over 50% of the entire circulating supply, roughly 10.5 million Bitcoin, sitting at an unrealized loss. That 50% threshold has been crossed at every single major bare market bottom since 2015. Now stack the institutional side on top. From miday to early June, US spot Bitcoin ETFs bled out roughly $4.4 billion cross a 13 consecutive day outflow streak. Black Rockck's IBIT alone accounted for about $3.3 billion of that.

Total ETF assets collapsed from around 104 billion at the start of the outflow streak down to roughly 82.8 billion by early June. A draw down of over $21 billion in just 13 trading days. Hedge funds slashed their Bitcoin ETF exposure by 39% in the first quarter. This is the institutionally wrapped retail crowd throwing in the towel. But here's the part that ties it back to seller exhaustion. That 13-day streak has ended.

On June 12th, the ETFs took in $85.9 million, the first day in nearly a month where not a single fund posted an outflow. The weak hands, both retail and institutional, are flushing out. And every coin a panicked seller dumps is a coin transferred to someone with more conviction and a lower likelihood of selling. That's how bottoms get built quietly and through gritted teeth. Now, that's three signals pointing the same way.

But the doomers will say Bitcoin's just one coin. So, let's zoom out to the entire altcoin market because the picture there is arguably even more washed out. Okay, if you're looking to trade these latest market moves, be it with crypto or trady assets, then BitGet is the place to do it. and they've recently released their new BitGet Tradfi platform that lets you trade gold and other commodities directly [music] with USDT.

Users get access to deep liquidity and low slippage. [music] And if you're feeling brave, you can also use up to 500x leverage, too. So, scan the QR code right here to sign up and put yourself in the running to net a $50,000 deposit bonus. Nice. Breath is just a fancy word for how many coins are participating. And right now, somewhere between 72% and 83% of the top altcoins are trading below their 200-day moving average.

Flip that around. Barely 17 to 28% are still above their long

原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。