贝莱德推出比特币收益ETF,直击微策略命门
BlackRock Wants To BEAT Michael Saylor
贝莱德和高盛推出比特币收益ETF是机构入场的重要信号,直接冲击微策略的商业模式,对加密市场结构和投资策略有深远影响。建议关注这些产品的实际表现及对微策略股价和比特币持仓的影响。
Just a few days ago, on June 16th, Black Rockck did something Michael Sailor spent six years telling you was impossible. They launched a Bitcoin product that pays you to hold it. Monthly Income, an ETF rapper, and the most trusted name in asset management stamped on the front. And Goldman Sachs is about 2 weeks behind them with a version that's even more aggressive. So, here's what every breathless headline is reading this as.
Wall Street has finally blessed Bitcoin. The asset class has matured. Everybody wins. But that's not what's happening here. What nobody's telling you is that these products are aimed like a rifle directly at the one thing that made Sailor's Empire worth a premium in the first place. And the cracks in that empire are already showing. So today, I'm going to break down exactly how these covered call products work, expose why they're a dagger pointed at Micro Strategy, and ask the uncomfortable question underneath all of it.
Is Wall Street validating Bitcoin or quietly putting it in a cage? My name is Louis and you're watching the Coin Bureau. Now, before we get into the war, you need the backdrop because the timing here is brutal. Bitcoin is sitting at roughly $63,000 as I record this, down about 28% since the start of the year. Micro Strategy, or Strategy as they're now called, is at $116, having shed nearly 30% in a single month. This isn't sunshine and rainbows out there.
This is a cold riskoff market and it's against exactly that backdrop that the two most powerful names in finance decided to plant their flags in sailor's lane. Which brings us directly to what Black Rockck actually built. The product is called the Eyesshares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, ticker B IA or Beta. It's actively managed and under the hood, it holds a mix of spot bitcoin shares and of black rockck's own flagship IBIT.
Then it does the clever bit. It sells call options on roughly 25 to 35% of those holdings. Now, for those unfamiliar, a covered call is simpler than it sounds. Put simply, picture you own a house in a neighborhood that might be about to boom. A covered call is you agreeing today to sell that house at a fixed price down the line and pocketing the cash check right now for making that promise. If the neighborhood triples, well, tough.
Your buyer gets the upside. However, you did get your check. That's Beta in a nutshell. It rents out your Bitcoin's future upside to Wall Street for cash today and hands that cash to you as monthly income. The target yield is a chunky 15 to 25% annualized and they aim to keep around 70% of Bitcoin's price moves. The fee is 0.65%. And notice that number because it's deliberate. Existing covered call Bitcoin funds like Round Hills YBTC charge around 0.95%.
And Neos's BTCI charges 0.99%. Black Rockck just walked in and undercut every single one of them. This is the exact playbook that let IBIT hoover up the spot Bitcoin ETF market. Drop the fee, lean on the brand, crush the incumbents. And of course, the executives are saying the quiet part out loud. BlockRock's chief investment officer of Global Fixed Income, Rick Ryder, has been talking up Bitcoin as a mature part of modern portfolios.
Their head of digital assets framed Beta as moving Bitcoin quote from a speculative non-yielding asset to a standard component of modern portfolio construction. Translation, we are domesticating this thing. But here's the bigger problem for Sailor. Black Rockck is the polite version. Goldman Sachs is about to make it worse. Goldman filed for its own Bitcoin income ETF back in April and it's expected to go live around July 1st. and their design is far more aggressive.
Where Black Rockck writes calls on 25 to 35% of the portfolio, Goldman's range is 40 to 100%. Think about what 100% means. At full overwrite, the entire position has its upside sold off. The fund stops being Bitcoin and becomes a pure income machine, maximum yield, and you participate in basically none of the next bull run. So, if Black Rockck is offering Bitcoin with training wheels, Goldman is offering Bitcoin in a straight jacket.
And it's aimed at a completely different crowd. Goldman is going after high- netw worth private wealth clients, people who want the label of Bitcoin exposure with the behavior of a bond. So, now you've got two titans, Black Rockck and Goldman, both selling the same pitch. Bitcoin pays you. And neither of them need Michael Sailor to do it. Now, I know that keeping up with all of this is a full-time job in and of itself.
Two product launches, a collapsing share price, and an options market that barely existed a few years ago. So, if you don't have 16 hours a day to sit watching it all unfold, come and join us in the Coin Bureau Telegram channel. It's completely free and it's where our team pins breaking news, onchain alpha, and the market updates that actually matter the moment that they land. The link is down in the description below and the QR code is on your screen right now.
Right, so let's get back to it. Because to understand why these products are so dangerous to sailor, you have to understand what his moat actually was. For years, Micro Strategy was the only practical way to get leveraged Bitcoin exposure inside a normal brokerage account. Before spot ETFs existed, if you wanted BTC in your IRA, MSTR was your vehicle. It was on the major exchanges covered by equity analysis and it offered juiced up exposure through convertible debt and preferred stock.
And because all of that convenience, investors paid a premium, a big one. This is the MNAV, the ratio of MSTR's market value to the Bitcoin that it actually holds. In November 2024, that premium peaked at around 3.89 times. Investors were paying nearly $4 for every $1 of Bitcoin Strategy held. That premium was the mode. It funded the entire flywheel. Here's how that flywheel was supposed to spin. MSTR trades at a fat premium.
The company issues new shares at that inflated price, uses the cash to buy more Bitcoin than those shares represent, and Bitcoin per share goes up for everyone. Premium justifies more issuance. More issuance buys more Bitcoin round and round, but that machine only works above a very specific line. Analysts peg the break even at around 1.22 times MNAV. Above it, issuing shares is accretive. Below it, every new share destroys Bitcoin per share for the people already holding.
So where is MSTR trading today? Well, about 0.8 eight times a discount below the value of its own Bitcoin. That's a collapse of nearly 80% from the peak. And here's the asymmetry reveal that matters. That premium didn't die by accident. It was attacked in two waves. Wave 1 was January 2024 when IBITS and the spot ETFs launched and killed the convenience argument. Why pay a premium for MSTR when you could buy spot bitcoin at a 0.25% fee?
Wave two is happening right now. Beta and Goldman kill the income argument. Why hold strategies complicated preferred stock for yield when Black Rockck will hand you 15 to 25% in a clean ETF rapper? So the question writes itself, what exactly is Micro Strategy for anymore? And this is where it stops [ __ ] theory because the cracks aren't a forecast. They're already here. Let's start with STRC. This is Strategy's variable rate perpetual preferred stock and it was supposed to be the next evolution of the flywheel, a way to pull in income focused capital to fund Bitcoin buys.
It was designed to trade at its $100 par value. However, on June 17th, the day before I compiled this, it hit a record low of $89, 11% below par. And that's a problem that feeds itself. Sailor committed to only issuing new STRC at or above par to avoid dilution, but at $89, he can't. So, the at the market program for STRC has effectively frozen. The capital raising engine just seized up. Meanwhile, investors are walking across the street to a competitor, Strive SATA preferred, which is holding closer to par and paying a higher effective yield around 13.7% versus STRC's roughly 12.9%.
Strateg
原文超出正文长度上限,此处截断——上游还有内容,完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
更进一步:量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力