比特币跌破5.9万美元，53%回撤何时见底？

Bitcoin just dipped below 59K. That's its lowest price since September 2024 and marks a 53% collapse from the $126,000 all-time high it set back in October. And yet we have a debaseed dollar, inflation running hot above 4%, strife in the Middle East, and a massive backlog of oil tankers in the straight of Hormuz. Every single one of those should be a textbook reason to buy BTC. but instead it's bled for seven straight weeks with no floor in sight. So today we answer the only questions that matter. Where is the bottom?

Why does Bitcoin keep falling when every headline says it should be soaring? And what three signals will actually mark the turnaround? Because the real answer comes down to one decision Wall Street made that changed everything. My name is Guy and you're watching the Coin Bureau. Now, even though there are plenty of supposedly bullish macro catalysts out there for Bitcoin, there's no escaping the fact that it's sticking pretty much to its classic 4-year cycle. This cycle is playing out like all the ones preceding it, even though we're living through a pretty eventful period in history. That said, the Federal Reserve has very much entered the chat in the last few weeks. On the 17th of June, new Fed chair Kevin Walsh held his first FOMC meeting and the market called it a hawkish shock. Rates were held steady at 3.5 to 3.75% but the dot plot changed completely. Nine out of 18 FOMC participants now project at least one rate hike before the end of 2026. Then on the 25th of June, May PCE inflation came in at 4.1%, the highest reading in 3 years and more than double the Fed's 2% target. Before the meeting, traders saw a 24% chance of a December rate hike. Now they price it at roughly 77%. Now, when US Treasuries pay you 4.5 to 5% nominal and around 2.2% 2% after inflation. That's the highest real yield and therefore the highest opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin since the asset existed. Bitcoin pays you nothing. So for an institutional capital manager running a risk model, the maths is pretty straightforward. Why hold a non-yielding asset bleeding out when bonds pay you a real return to do nothing?

The debasement trade has unwound. And while that's the primary cause of BTC's recent decline, it's the selling pressure stacking on top that's making this so relentless. First, the US Spot Bitcoin ETFs have now logged seven consecutive weeks of outflows, the longest streak since they launched, bleeding around $6 billion. The week ending 26th of June alone saw $1.79 billion walk out of the door. and Black Rockck's iBit accounted for around three quarters of that, roughly $1.3 billion in a single week. And when investors redeem IBIT shares, the fund has to sell actual spot Bitcoin to settle. And thus, the supposedly permanent bid that propped this market up in 2024 has flipped into forced selling. Then there's strategy. Michael Sailor's company holds 847,363 BTC at an average cost near 75,640. At current prices, that position is underwater by somewhere around $13 billion and the flywheel has gone into reverse. Their preferred stock, STRC, was designed to trade at $100, but it's currently sitting around $71. Below par, issuing new shares destroys value. So, the buying machine has seized up. Strategy's accumulation collapsed from roughly 50,000 BTC in April to just 3,600 in June. And in late May, they actually sold 32 BTC to cover dividend payments. Now, that rounds to almost nothing against Strategy's overall stack. But this is the company that turned Never Sell into almost a religion. It was their first sale since 2022. Okay, next up we have the miners. JP Morgan pegs Bitcoin's all-in production cost near $78,000 a coin. So with BTC near $59,000, around 20% of the industry is now mining at a loss. The hash ribbon signal has triggered. Network difficulty just saw its 11th largest drop ever at minus 10%. and public miners dumped over 32,000 BTC in the first quarter alone. Then there's the long-term holders. The long-term holder spent output profit ratio has fallen to around 0.88, which means the veterans, people holding for 155 days or more, are now selling at a loss for the first time this cycle. In one 48 hour window in early June, $2.4 $4 billion in long-term holder losses were realized. Stack all these factors together, then ETF selling, strategy struggling, miners underwater, and long-term holders capitulating. Then sprinkle on top the fact that the speculators out there have rotated heavily into the AI trade. And well, Bitcoin struggles become a lot easier to understand. Now, keeping up with all of this, the Fed, the flows, the onchain data is a full-time job. So, if you don't have 16 hours a day to track it, come and join the Coin Bureau Club Light. It's our membership platform right here on YouTube for $10 a month where our team breaks down the moves that actually matter and gives you the analysis behind videos like this one. Just hit the join button below this video to get started. All right, back to it. And let's get this out of the way because it's the question on everyone's lips. Where is the bottom?

Well, guess what?There's no consensus on this one, but let's look at some of the numbers out there and see which ones sound plausible. The realized price, the average cost basis for every coin in existence sits at around $53,400. That's widely treated as the ultimate floor for this cycle. The 200E moving average sits near $62,200 and Bitcoin has just broken below it for the first time. In every previous cycle, that line marks the bottom or sat extremely close to it. And the MVRV ratio is around 1.1 in the cheap zone, but not yet at the level that historically confirms a true bottom. Meanwhile, there's quite a spread when it comes to what some of the analysts out there are saying. 10x Research calls 54,000 to 57,000. The options market is pricing support near 52,000 and the bearish historical fractals point all the way down to 30,000 to 38,000. And when it comes to timing, a striking number of independent analysts converge on the same window Q4 2026 as the highest probability bottom. That lines up both with the 12 to 15month post- peak pattern and the posth havinging cycle. So, the bottom could be getting near, which would of course mean that the green shoots of recovery aren't far behind. That said, however, the classic capitulation signals haven't all fired yet. MVRV at 1.1 hasn't broken below 1.0, the level that marks every definitive bottom in 2015, 2018, and 2022. The Puel multiple hasn't hit its deep extremes, and long-term holder spent output profit ratio at 0.88 88 is painful, but it hasn't reached the 0.66 readings we saw at previous cycle lows. There's also no Fed pivot on the horizon, and if anything, they're leaning towards hiking, which means one more violent flush towards $40,000 to $52,000 may be needed before a durable floor can form. Nevertheless, there are reasons for optimism, folks. As things stand, this 53% draw down is the shallowest bare market in Bitcoin's history. 2018 fell 83% and 2022 fell 77%. The Bitcoin is dead narrative that's being trotted out now is a near perfect mirror of the FTX bottom in 2022. Wales are reportedly accumulating below $60,000 even as the ETFs continue to sell off. So, there's no denying that these are tough times to be in crypto. But remember, Bitcoin itself isn't broken, and the hard money thesis hasn't changed. What has changed is the price of the alternative. The Fed has made cash and bonds pay a real return. The speculative crowd has sprinted into AI, and the marginal buyers, the ETFs and the corporate treasuries, have flipped into marginal sellers. But the structural floor is rising. The long-term holders aren't flinching, even though the short-term pain is pretty relentless. But Bitcoin will survive this draw down and the real focus now is on when the flows flip and the Fed blinks. We can't know for sure where or when the bottom will be. But when the MVRV breaks below 1.0, that'll be th