摩根士丹利：预计明年原油日均过剩约200万桶

Sam, it is good to hear you. It's been quite a ride this year. Uh, when it comes to the energy markets, uh, Morgan Stanley is talking now about a lot of supply on the market. How do you see it? Because it does sound like things are moving. Yeah. I think once we have a normalization of flows through this trade, the expectation is that we go into an oversupply. We do expect next year to average with a surplus of just over 3 million barrels a day.

Now, to be fair, if you then bring in all the rebuilding of SBR and that we are likely to see that comes down. So we do expect a little over a million barrels a day just of SBR rebuilding globally. But still, that would leave us close to 2 million barrels a day of a surplus next year. Once we get to a normalization in the Strait of Hormuz. That's right. What is when is that going to be? We think that if if we can continue to ramp flows, we really expect that by the end of July?

This is done okay. In fact, if it wasn't for, you know, the little flare ups we get every now and then, if you just take into account the pace of ramp we had been seeing until, let's say, before Thursday last week at that pace. We would have been normalized by early July. So the pace of ramp on the oil side, I should say, on the oil side has been pretty decent on the LNG side less so. Once you get that done, then you stop drawing down inventories as much.

For now, they are still drawing down. I think one of the reasons why markets haven't really reacted that much to this latest flare up is that when you look, for example, U.S. exports continue to be pretty solid. If you look at China imports, they have continue to go down. So China doesn't seem to be in the rush to replenish their inventories just yet. And this is somewhat accommodating this little bump in the road of the ramp up.

So anytime there's a flare, do you guys mostly around your desk or around your offices, basically say it's just a little flare up? We're moving in the right direction, right? Meaning calm, peace, things settling down in the Strait of Hormuz and things settling down between Iran and the rest of the world and Iran and the United States. I think, like everybody, we watch the headlines, uh, and see if the flare up is followed by let's talk and just work this out.

Yeah. Um, but it's also about, uh, how the market reacts to it. Then we can get a sense of, well, two things. One, from an investor perspective, what the expectations are. Do people really expect this to be a problem or just a transient issue? But the other thing that we can look at is the physical market. And the physical market hasn't really tightened up significant significantly either, which is what points us to go, okay, let me see how much China is pulling ballooning and the physical balance is not that bad because China is helping so much.

What about the the question of Iranian supply and how that hits the market? Yeah. So now they have waivers. They are free to to sell to the world. And when we look at what's happening with, let's say, oil on water, it has started to increase because you can get more Iranian oil and water. And like I said, the U.S. is also bringing more oil and water. So we do expect that to increase over time. How material is it to the whole to the overall market?

It's it by itself. It's not going to solve, you know, the the issue. They were a small portion of everything that flows through this is much more significant to Iran as a country. And this is not, you know, part of our conversation, much more so going back to Iran as a country, as a revenue driver. That's exactly right. But before Thursday, if we were to focus on, let's say, the recorded flow, they through the strait, they got to just about 13 million barrels a day when before the deal, we were at a pace of about between 1 and 2 million barrels a day of visible crossings.

Of course, if you take into account all the reroutes, everything else that we were see, we were getting to much better numbers. Speaking of rerouting, um, and some notes your team shared with us, uh, included from your folks. Despite the recent pickup in flows, golf producers continued to invest in infrastructure projects aimed at reducing their reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Talk to us about how things will change going forward.

And does that, you know, prevent any bottlenecks from happening in the future? But does it also add costs to moving oil around the world? Yeah, I think the key words are is security of energy supply. And everybody's very, very focused on it. This push to get additional infrastructure in the Gulf so that you're not so dependent on this trade to like the UAE building the extra pipeline. This helps with the supply side, but also on the demand side, something that we're debating internally as well as to what extent will buyers of oil and gas follow the China market?

So China had an electricity crisis back in 21. And since then they've done well essentially three things. One, they they tried to switch more and more away from oil into EVs, but at the same time, they tried to boost the production of coal and boost electricity coming from renewable capacity as well. So we're going to reduce exposure to what we are in that short of China's net short oil on that short gas. But we're going to do it in a way that we can control supply.

We can build solar panels and we can produce more coal. So we think that this could be a model for a lot of regions across Asia. Not everybody has coal, so not everybody would be able to rely on that. But if you look at how many solar panels China is selling since the start of the war, it's shot up. Who are they selling them to? They are selling them to Europe. They're selling them across Asia and not to the US, though the US doesn't really need the China materials as much, but the US is also growing solar capacity significantly.

We had I know that we had changes in regulation that would reduce the subsidies, but they the projects being done now deer grandfathered in. So for the next four years, a lot of solar capacity can continue to grow in the US too. You know, a few years ago, when I think it was George W Bush was in the white House, and I did a documentary here at Bloomberg about the push for ethanol. And I think about Brazil's history, like during the oil crisis where they went to sugar based ethanol.

Right. Uh, and we were doing it kind of different here in the United States, corn based ethanol. But how crises shape what people do going forward. So I'm listening to what you are saying, and I'm just wondering, um, does it mean that there will be a glut of oil probably going? I mean, this was a hard lesson again for the world to learn. U.S. was in a better position than, let's say, in the 70s. Brazil was probably in a better position.

But I'm just saying, is it going to be the longer term investment theory when it comes to energy oil specifically? There's going to be a lot around because people are finding alternatives. Yeah. And big demand drivers are finding alternatives. And the word you used again, this is the second very large energy shock. Within five years we had the European energy crisis in 22. We just had this because of you the Ukraine Russia.

Right. Exactly. So if if you are exposed to oil and gas imports, you look at this and it's like, well enough already, maybe I should do something about it. And to your point, this absolutely raises questions as to how much more oil demand growth we're going to see and for how long before the energy crisis. Now, we were of the view that we would have oil demand growth in the world for another decade plus until the end of the next decade at least.

This does raise some debate, because now we think that behavior, it might start to change a little bit. Well, speaking of behavior, are you taking seriously the idea that there could be tolls on ships going through the Strait of Hormuz? So let me put it this way. When I talk to shipping companies, the main

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