美联储不确定性笼罩市场，鲍威尔面临加息压力

Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. [music] This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. [music] Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business [music] App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. How do you start the week with your interview of the week including the Fed here uh on what Mr. Worsh is going to do? Adichave has a wonderful pedigree including out of Ammerst which I expect chairman wars is going to quote Robert Frost here uh at the press conference somewhere ages and ages a hence I chairman Walsh will find two roads diverged in a road or diverged in a wood and I took the one less traveled.

You say the one less traveled is three rate hikes. Really? You are an outlier. How do you get the three rate hikes?

Okay, so the way we get there is pretty simple. Let's talk about the data first. It's the data and the reaction function data. The unemployment rate is unchanged from a year ago. CRPC inflation is about 60 basis points above where it was a year ago and only a some of that is oneoff. So despite all this policy is 75 basis points easier than last year to us. They're clearly offside. So our forecast is just that they'll take back the cuts that they did last year.

They were riskmanagement cuts. Those risks around labor have dissipated at this point. And then in terms of the reaction function, we thought going into June that this was fundamentally a dovish FOMC that would find reasons to not hike rates. But the SCP, it's not just about the dot plot. It's the fact that nine people expect to hike even though no one has the unemployment rate falling this year.

So that for us is is a hawkish shift in the

believe the guy from South Africa was offside by a total length. That was just absolutely ridiculous. But I it's a

but you don't need replay for this.

But you don't need a VAR. [laughter] Kevin Worsh doesn't get a VAR. What he does get is a nonlinear function. One rate rise, a second, a third. Wildly nonlinear. Correct. I don't think it's wildly nonlinear. 75 basis points is very normal for a mini cycle for the Fed. So to be clear, we don't think they have as much of an inflation problem as they did back in 2022. Underlying inflation isn't 3 1/2%. It's probably closer to, you know, 28 or something like that, which is why they don't need to go back to 5%, right?

At 3 and a half% core PC, the tailor rule would tell you you need to be at 5%. That's not what we're calling for.

So how's the consumer doing out there? I mean, better than we think. How's the consumer doing?

The consumer is doing great. And we actually have data to back this up. So, the Bank of America data, credit and debit card spending, we report this almost in real time. We've already published reports through [snorts] the 20th of June. And what we're seeing is an acceleration in spending X of gas as gas prices come down even though you didn't really see a deceleration X of gas as gas prices went up. So the consumer is in good shape.

Now some of this could be a boost from the World Cup that rolls off, but there's no clear sign again that the risks to activity are to the downside. And just going back to Robert Frost for a second, Tom, he has promises to keep. [clears throat] shows promises to keep.

So that was a Colby Smith article today.

I saw [clears throat] Ammerst. They're still the Lord Jeffs to me. I'm not going to them whole mammoth thing.

No comment. [laughter] No comments.

Um talk to us about So presumably the Fed and this chairman has some political pressure to lower rates. Boy, if [clears throat] he tries to do three three rate hikes this year, the social media posts are going to be fast and furious. Does that figure into your calculus at all? That's a bit outside my wheelhouse. But what I would say just as a statement of fact is that the president noted during the press conference that he would be okay with the Fed hiking rates.

And honestly, if you think about chair wars incentives right now, he has a brief window where he can hike rates and not necessarily take the blame in the sense that the inflation happened under the previous regime. Mhm.

If he doesn't hike now and inflation doesn't get better over the next year and there's a lot of pressure from the committee to hike next year, he'll have to own that.

Longer term in terms of inflation to the extent that this decline of globalization, I'm not sure if you guys subscribe to that, but this decline of globalization, this America first, the near shoring, French shuring, doesn't that structurally lift inflation?

It does. It does. And we're seeing some of that in the inflation data as well. If you look at the underlying drivers of inflation, for sure we don't have a disastrous problem around demand again, which is why policy doesn't need to go to 5 6%. But supply drivers are really, really sticky.

And that's not going away, right? It's just wave after wave of supply shock. And that's something the Fed will have to contend with. If you're looking at 5 10 years of supply driven inflation just being elevated, then you have to put more downward pressure on demand or you have to accept that you're always going to miss your target by 507 basis points.

When you talk to your equity people, which who are really competent like a huge Excel spreadsheet quantitative uh strength, if you get above A3 rate increases, what does the stock market do?

My sense is it'll be fine. I mean, look at the fact that we've gone from two cuts priced for this year to a hike and a half and equities have navigated that just fine. So, another hike and a half, could that be the straw that breaks the camel's back? Maybe, but I don't think that's a slam dunk either.

So, for labor, what is the BFA kind of AI call as it relates to the labor market? Kind of intermediate to longer term, I guess,

right? So the longer term view is that AI will replace tasks more than it will replace jobs. So ultimately there's going to be creation of a whole bunch of new jobs that we just can't conceive of right now. So I like the statistic. Something like 60% of jobs that exist today did not exist back in 1940. Right? So I think there's going to be something like that happening down the line. Now that said, there is a transition period.

There are going to be winners and losers and the speed of that transition is going to matter a lot in the near term for Fed policy. Thank you so much with Bank of America here. Really quite a call folks. We'll have a mix of calls here as we go to the Fed uh meeting and beyond the jobs report in this last week of the second quarter. Uh Dr. Bave is with Bank of America. Stay with us. More [music] from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10:00 a.m. Eastern.

Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App or watch us live on YouTube.

What a joy in studio Alicia Lavine of being why. I'm just going to cut to the choice and you could see it in Barrens this weekend. this cacophony of OMG, we've got a fabulous Microsoft world's coming to an end article out today. And in your research note, you've got some optimism on tech. What's your visibility here when you say buy Mag 7, own Mag 7? Are you out 6 days, 6 weeks, or 6 years? So I think it's hard to be six years, but I think that the the collapse in multiple here on the MAG 7 gives you an entry point here because essentially what's happened over the last few weeks and don't forget this really started November 1st of last year.

The funding and the spending on AI is coming from these hyperscalers, you know, hundreds of billions of dollars, estimates $800 billion this year. And it's going to fund other companies, right? The products of other companies. It's it's hardware, right? It's buildout. It's industrial. It's energy

原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。