韩国市场波动与美联储讲话成本周焦点

Mark, great to have you with us on the program. So, a lot of our focus has been on Korea of late and the incredible volatility we've seen in those markets. We've heard some big numbers being announced uh through the Asian uh trading day about what is taking place in Korea. Are we a little further which seem to be perhaps supporting NASDAQ futures? So, how's your thinking evolving around that tech AI trade? Yeah, very much the announced uh kind of mega spending plan out of Korea did see the Cosby regain ground uh after earlier losses and then that did help kind of improve sentiment right across the board.

And it was even noticeable this morning actually as the Cosby opened at 8 a.m. my time. Um the Cosby opened poorly uh down a couple of percent and NASDAQ futures kind of fell about half percent on that opening. It is interesting how much Korea is really driving the sentiment at the moment. Probably the big theme for the last couple of days there has been the kind of rotation as we kind of reach month end quarter end.

Um we're kind of assuming that most that is done. It was shown up again today with Hong Kong stocks the major lagards of the of the past quarter being the real outperformers in the day. So I think you know we're kind of shortterm in the ne over the next day or two. We still got a little bit of the kind of fallout from that rebalancing that quarter end kind of move some of those flows driving that. But I think that that July is is probably set to start relatively positively if we get through this week's pretty immense lineup of event risk with CRA, with non-farm payrolls, with you know multiple options expires in the middle of week and of course a holiday impaired week.

So I think there's a lot of event risk this week but after that we should be in a positive backdrop if none of the news this week uh kind of ruins that. And the reason I say that is because we know that earnings are likely pretty good for in July. you know the earnings for the second quarter the macro data has held up pretty well in the US overall and we know that kind of companies have guided expectations pretty low that it should be easy for a beat and micron earnings recently just showed that the the the AI capex bubble continues for now so I think we're going in with a relatively optimistic tailwind overall

what's mispriced this week which macro events is it wash is it payrolls what are you watching

I think I'm I'm not that concerned about payrolls I I I say that hesitantly because it's obviously it's a shortened session on Thursday and then it's you know it's a holiday in the US on Friday but not in the rest of the world. So if we get a weird number we get a really outsized reaction but I'm not expecting that to be the main driver. I think wars at central will be very interesting because he's so determined not to provide much fed guidance but we've just had over 15 years of the market learning to take all their kind of data interpretation from Fed officials and to get massive forward guidance.

So I think people will be parsing what he says even if he's not trying to send a message and that creates dangerous territory.

Mark I want to draw on your former FX trading experience with these calls on Euro dollar at 110 coming through from Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan the rate differential the macroeconomic picture. What what does that call stand to kind of the test do you think is that do you do you take a view on that? Like I mean short term I I I think Euro dollar's probably got more downside, but I'm I'm not as excited about it as I was maybe a couple of weeks ago.

Um I I think longer term later on this year we'll go back into a dollar downtrend, but I don't think we're ready for that yet. So I think we're coming to the end of the dollar appreciation phase, but we're not there quite yet.