比特币四年周期被质疑，机构看涨加密前景

I'm a Bitcoin bull. I'm not really on board with these four-year cycles. We don't have enough of them to feel confident in them.

Black Rockck is tokenizing almost every asset. Almost every asset is going to be built on a crypto rail.

We are at relatively cheap levels, so it's a good entry point for anybody deploying capital into the market.

Listen, I think it's ultimately going considerably higher.

The case for a $200,000 Bitcoin just got stronger. Keep in mind Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin just like Salana will outperform Ethereum. So there's a lot of opportunity in the crypto space and yet all investing attention at the moment is in the stock market. Stock market investors are hoping for maybe 10 to 20% more returns this year. The fact is most people just do not realize there is so much more asymmetric opportunity in crypto right now, especially understanding that Bitcoin is bottoming while the stock market just keeps extending higher.

The number one biggest mistake investors can make right now is thinking that Bitcoin's alleged four-year cycle is real. And that means Bitcoin bottoms out lower later this year around October. At least according to Fair Leads Katie Stockton, who says, "Actually, Bitcoin is way oversold right now, and you're making a huge mistake if you think that the 4-year cycle plays out." It is the counternarrative to be bullish on Bitcoin like this right now.

This is all just human psychology. It is a tale as old as time. The downside exhaustion in Bitcoin is opportunity. Katie Stockton explains back and forth with CNBC host Joe Kernan. Listen.

The good news for Bitcoin traders or investors is that we have a long-term oversold condition and it's been in place for a duration at which it usually starts to impact the chart. So, we're looking for stabilization. Ideally, it does happen in this range because it is a key Fibonacci retracement level below which oftentimes a full retracement happens. So, we're hoping to see it 60,000 is also a key level as well.

It's down 60% from the high or 50 and change close to that.

So, not 80 and other draw downs before it was as institutionally accepted and there were no ETFs. So people, you know, a lot of people, the bulls that we have on say this this might not be a full draw down like we've seen in the past and we could be near something now. You think there's any merit to that argument?

I think we can still see those 75 80% drawdowns, but as a technician, I almost see the volatility as opportunity. And when we do have those big draw downs, which we can avoid using those trend following gauges, then of course you have an opportunity to ride the relief rally. and those can be just equally violent as you know. So, I'm a Bitcoin bull from a very very long-term perspective. I'm not really on board with these four-year cycles.

We don't have enough of them to feel confident in them. But, I'm always looking for signs of downside exhaustion for that opportunity.

And it's just human nature and it's you could use this in in any market, but it's at at 125 it's like, "Oh my god, it's too high. I can't buy it. I'd love to buy it. I can't buy it at 125. I would love it." at 60 it's like I'm not buying that. Uh

it's market psychology.

People that wanted to buy it at 125 are afraid to buy it at.

It's really hard to buy into weakness, but it is often the right thing to do. We like to see little convincing shift in momentum before adding exposure and because support is being tested so hard. Ideally, we see even a couple three weeks of stabilization here before feeling convinced it's holding. The number two reason why Bitcoin is more bullish than it looks is because it has finally touched the 200E moving average.

The 200E moving average is key according to Bitcoin OG and possible Satoshi contender Adam back who says every bare market in the past has ended after this has happened. And today, with the exchange supply so low, yet fundamental adoption so high, Bitcoin is a generational buying opportunity right now. He explains in 40 seconds.

The 200E moving average last week increased to $62,000. So, we are at sort of relatively cheap levels. So, it's a good entry point for anybody deploying capital into the market. Yeah, I think that's the, you know, the beginning of the turnaround as also, you know, the the number of Bitcoin left on exchange is falling. Bitcoin dominance index, the market share of Bitcoin versus the rest of the digital assets is rising as well.

And there's more, you know, the institutional adoption is focused almost exclusively on Bitcoin. So that's what's driving the value trade here. Look, 2026 has been hugely disappointing for crypto so far. So, it's actually nice to see Tom Lee finally admit he was wrong in this clip. However, unless you think that this is finally the bare market where crypto finally dies, you must understand that the fundamental crypto thesis is still intact.

He says, "I think without question in 12 months, we're going to say that crypto was a downstream story of AI just like memory stocks was sort of a hasb been in 2024 2025. They were stuck. They didn't go anywhere. And look what happened in 2026. They all went parabolic." calmly explains.

I think without question in 12 months we're going to say crypto was an a downstream story of AI just like memory was sort of a has been story in 2024 and 2025, right? That they they were stuck. They didn't go anywhere and look what happened in 2026. They all went parabolic. Young people today bank through apps. In the future, they're going to be trading stocks and very likely, as Robin Hood's pointed out, you're going to be trading it on a crypto platform.

It's a tokenized stock. I mean, look at what happened with oil trading over the weekends. That's all using crypto rails. Crypto is a little hard to understand and people don't like to deal with wallets, but young people, which is the next generation of users, are really big adopters. So,

where are they now though?

And I think you're absolutely right, there is FOMO because it's easier to buy the memory stocks. But I think without question in 12 months we're going to say crypto was an a downstream story of AI just like memory was sort of a has been story in 2024 and 2025 right that they they were stuck they didn't go anywhere and look what happened in 2026 they all went parabolic Scott it's it's actually happening for instance black rockck is tokenizing almost every asset almost every asset is going to be built on a crypto rail it is more efficient it offers finality and it lets it trade 24/7.

It's what's called composability. It's really turning financial assets into software. It's happening, but hey, it's uh slow and then sudden. So, to me, it's been 2026 has been a big setback year. It's disappointing, but to me, the fundamental progress is still there. And by the way, Tradfi thinks the exact same way. They see Wall Street adopting it. They see crypto rails as the future. This is Jenny Johnson, Franklin Templeton CEO. for her being bullish on crypto is obvious and she explains why.

Oh, you're 100% converging and I think it's really important to just think about I always say like blockchain does three things that traditional finance needs. Number one has a source of truth, right? So I know whoever has that token has all the rights to the token. There's a huge amount of cost in traditional finance when two parties trade to validate who they are to make sure your data, you know, uh in sync. All that goes away when you have a single source of truth.

The second, as I mentioned, is the smart contract. Whatever our agreement is, it gets programmed in and can be executed on its own. So, the efficiency of that is going to be tremendous. And then the ability to exchange with via payment. So, I can create new types of relationships. I don't need a third party to validate who my counterparty is, uh, which I do in much of the traditional finance

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