伊朗冲突推高巴拿马运河收入16%

Well, the war. Iran has had an unexpected beneficiary, and that's the nation of Panama. New reporting from Bloomberg says the Panama Canal is expecting better than predicted revenue this year due to increased traffic, as more ships look for alternate routes to move commodities around the world. Joining us now is Carlos Ruiz Hernandez. He is the former vice foreign minister of Panama and a senior advisor at the center for Strategic Studies.

Carlos, it's nice to see you. I want to ask you. I mean, it's obviously been an interesting few years with the Panama Canal, but I want to talk first about what's happening now. I was reading from some of our own Bloomberg reporting that the canal is seeing as much as a 16% increase in traffic since the start of the Iran war conflict. How is the authority handling that? I mean, there are reports that it's almost nearing capacity.

Um, yeah. Good morning. Thank you for having me. Yes, I think, um, I saw the reporting as well. And right now I'm currently in Panama, even though I'm based in DC. But, uh, I think what the authority is doing is they're anticipating a lot of the risk that you were referring in your previous segment. They're anticipating a crisis there. They're seeing the uncertainty around the MOU. Uh, this is not a peace treaty yet.

And there are a number of variables that, uh, that have, uh, redirected. Redirect energy to from the Panama Canal and uh, towards Asia. And I think, uh, what they're doing is seeing and trying to anticipate anything that they can go wrong so that they're ready to handle more and more traffic if it's even if it's needed. Carlos, a roiling story has been will Iran charge a toll? Will Oman charge a toll? And I think what's so fascinating, the Panama Canal is kind of the the cost structure that's in place there.

There's this there's this auction component to it that if you're a shipper and you want to get to the front of the line, you can place a bid on being able to to do that. Could you talk a bit just about the economics of it? As Christina laid out a moment ago, the projection here is for revenues to be extremely high. Where is that money coming from? What are shippers paying for it to make their way through the Panama Canal?

Yeah, I think, um, it's a market clearing auction. Uh, the system has been in place in the Panama Canal. And, you know, if you want to get a little bit more into the mechanics, uh, the Panama Canal Authority has a very, very well detailed process, by the way. By they do that. It's not a it's not a toll hike. Uh, it's only 3 to 5 on reserve slots and they go to auction. Uh, and it's, uh, it reflects stability in the pricing and the flexibility, uh, for the consumers.

And, uh, a reserve transit's, the vast majority of them, uh, run on fixed public rates. The system, uh, what's going on right now is the system is doing its job. Uh, it's the Panama Canal. It's, uh, the whole premise of the of the business model is do is to be reliable is to it's a it's a set it neutral, uh, geopolitical shocks like this one. I mean, Panama has nothing to do in this conflict. We're just here to absorb that shock.

And I think that's exactly what the Panama guys, the even with all the the publishing of the future of infrastructure investment, uh, the shippers, the community and the industry has always, uh, uh, when they use it, if they're Panama Canal users, uh, they always there was no, they the system is there to help them if they need to. They have some some deadlines. They have to, uh, get to the ports or the port is closed.

They have to reroute. So the system is precisely they have to do those things. And so far it has worked exactly as it's designed to do, as it as it was designed for this kind of shots. If you look at Panama, kind of being able to position itself as a safe haven for transit for these, these ships and vessels. How does Panama position itself geopolitically to make sure it maintains the optics of being a safe, neutral place to go?

I mean, there was a moment not so long ago where the president of the United States was threatening to invade and repossess the canal, accusing Panama of giving an advantage to China. How does Panama relationship balance this relationship between the U.S. and China? And now with everything going on the Gulf? What are what is Panama's relationships with that region as well? And is there anything you're looking towards, um, making stronger ties with in the future?

Absolutely. I think, uh, yeah, this, this, this last couple of years have been a little bit more of a, uh, PR than we've expected. Usually we always have, but, uh, but I think Panama as much has been very clear and consistent. Uh, the Panama Canal was Panamanian. It operates neutrally. It's open to all flags equally. Uh, and that's exactly, uh, for moments like this is how they try to live. neutrality. Why? Neutrality works.

It absorbs energy shocks. Uh, and it guarantees that the heat's largest user, which are U.S. companies, uh, can go straight to do and and continue to do their business. I mean, I think the, the whole, uh, situation has, uh, relied on, uh, continuity and not risk. I mean, geopolitical headwinds, they'll come and go. It's, uh, a lot of what's happened in the last few years. Very, very unfortunate. But the Panama Canal is ready for this kind of things.

And I think that's exactly what, uh, we've done in the last couple of years. The government. And you have to remember the Panama Canal Authority, it's it's completely separate from the government. Uh, but both institutions work well. And when geopolitics and great power competition have come to our shores, we've relied on those institutions to precisely do what they're designed to do. And and Panama on the on the canal side, we have the Panama Canal Authority's been around for about 40 years.

Uh, and we've been total Panamanian for the last 25 years, since the year 2000. And we haven't had any big problems and major situations, except the droughts, which are the real constraints more than geopolitical headwinds. I mean, where the relationship of the region is excellent, uh, our foreign minister and our authorities have been coming and going. We open relations with Saudi Arabia, uh, this year, uh, we're open embassies.

Um, we're literally preparing for this in the interconnected complexity, the great power competition has brought to us. Uh, Carlos, very quickly we got 30s. So let me just ask you, I know that Cristina brought up the fact that President Trump made these threats against Panama. Has all of that been allayed? That that's no longer an issue for for Panama on they're not facing that kind of pressure that they'd faced before.

It's like I said, I mean, everything's continuity. I mean, right now here in Panama, we're focused on we're focusing on, uh, doing business. Stay neutral to stay allies to the United States. Uh, the contact is there. That diplomacy worked. Uh, it remained. We've hosted this past week, uh, the OAS General Assembly, we had we had deputy secretary of state here. We. Yeah.